Hurricane Center warns of system to drench Florida, flash flooding possible. Here's where
The NHC said there is very little chance the system, currently just off the coast around Jacksonville Beach and St. Augustine, will develop into a tropical depression before it hits the state. But the system will drench North Florida as it tracks across into the Gulf where there is a small chance it could strengthen before it threatens Louisiana and Texas through the weekend.
The National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk for much of the Southeast given the potential for localized flash flooding through Thursday.
"Several inches of rain are likely along the Interstate 10 corridor, with some locations potentially receiving over 6 inches in a short time," AccuWeather said in an email. "Flash flooding is possible in urban and low-lying areas, leading to dangerous road conditions and travel disruptions."
The NHC is also tracking another tropical wave that just left the coast of Africa, making that three to watch in the Atlantic.
Meanwhile, the heat dome that has broiled much of the eastern United States this week continues to build toward the east coast and threatens 95 million Americans with heat warnings and advisories but it has largely moved on from Florida, forecasters said. There is only one heat advisory for Wednesday, for the western Panhandle, where heat index values are expected to reach 110.
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The next named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be Dexter.
Historically, the fourth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season arrives Aug. 15. The last two named storms of the season — Barry and Chantal — developed earlier than normal.
Here's the latest tropical advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m. July 22:
Where is the disturbance threatening Florida?
A trough of low pressure on the southern end of a frontal boundary is located just offshore of the Southeastern U.S. coast and is associated with a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Over the next few days, this system is forecast to move west-southwestward into the north-central portion of the Gulf, where environmental conditions could allow for some slow development.
By this weekend, the system is likely to move inland, ending its chances for development. Regardless of formation, heavy rainfall could be possible for portions of Florida over the next day or so, and for the northern Gulf coast through this weekend.
Formation chance through 48 hours: Low, 10%
Formation chance through 7 days: Low, 10%
What else is happening in the tropics?
The National Hurricane Center is tracking three tropical waves.
Tropical wave 1: A tropical wave in the E Atlantic has been relocated based on satellite derived winds. The axis of the wave is near 23W along a 1015 mb low pressure. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to 13N between 18W and 31W.
Tropical wave 2: A tropical wave in the central Atlantic has been relocated based on satellite derived winds. The axis of the wave is near 40W. Isolated showers are depicted from 09N to 11N between 38.5W and 43W.
Tropical wave 3: A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles with its axis near 57W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06.5N to 16N between 53W and 58.5W.
Florida heat wave lessening on paper, still feels hot
Meanwhile, it's still hot in the Sunshine State with temps in the high 80s to low 90s and heat index values of 103-109 possible in North Florida, but the only heat advisory for Wednesday is for Escambia County, Santa Rosa, and coastal Okaloosa from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. CT.
Heat risks across the state are moderate in the north and north-central, minor across the lower half, with some spots of major and even extreme heat possible in the western Panhandle, according to the NWS Heat Risk map.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
Florida weather radar for July 23, 2025
National Weather Service Florida forecast for July 23
: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 109. North wind around 5 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Tallahassee, central Panhandle: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2 p.m. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Partly sunny, with a high near 90. Heat index values as high as 105. Calm wind becoming east northeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
: Showers and thunderstorms. High near 89. Heat index values as high as 103. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
: Showers and thunderstorms likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 4 p.m. High near 88. Light and variable wind becoming east southeast 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 5pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85 in West Palm and 88 in Naples. South wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70% in West Palm, 90% on the west coast. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible on the east coast.
: Showers and thunderstorms likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after noon. High near 87. South southwest wind 6 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
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➤ Excessive rainfall forecast
2025 hurricane season so far
An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
Here's when this year's named storms have developed, compared to historical averages:
Tropical Storm Andrea: formed June 24. Average start date: June 20
Tropical Storm Barry: formed June 29. Average start date: July 17
Tropical Storm Chantal: formed July 5. Average start date: Aug. 3.
Next up, Dexter: Average state date: Aug. 15, with the average first hurricane forming Aug. 11.
Hurricane names for 2025 season
Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them:
Andrea (June 24)
Barry (June 29)
Chantal (July 5)
Dexter: DEHK-ster
Erin: AIR-rin
Fernand: fair-NAHN
Gabrielle: ga-bree-ELL
Humberto: oom-BAIR-toh
Imelda: ee-MEHL-dah
Jerry: JEHR-ee
Karen: KAIR-ren
Lorenzo: loh-REN-zoh
Melissa: meh-LIH-suh
Nestor: NES-tor
Olga: OAL-guh
Pablo: PAHB-lo
Rebekah: reh-BEH-kuh
Sebastien: se-BAS-tee-en
Tanya: TAHN-yuh
Van: van
Wendy: WEN-dee
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
National Hurricane Center map: See what forecasters watching now
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Why does NHC say 'tropical cyclone' on its maps instead of hurricane or tropical storm?
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA said.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
: for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific.
: for storms in the Northwest Pacific.
: for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
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This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Florida flooding from rain, thunderstorms possible, NOAA warns
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