MLB All-Star All-Snubs team: Trea Turner, Rafael Devers, Juan Soto among notable misses

New York Times

14 hours ago

Guys, this keeps happening! Every year, like clockwork, Major League Baseball picks two All-Star Teams. And every year, really good players get left out. It's almost as if the system itself is not perfectly designed to get the absolute best players onto the rosters!
So, here we are again, savoring Sunday's All-Star selections by celebrating the players who didn't make it. Granted, some of these snubs will be replacements — our All-Snubs team last year had 15 players, and three were eventually chosen — but among the snubs who remained left out of last year's All-Star Game were an eventual Rookie of the Year (Luis Gil) and an eventual MVP runner-up (Francisco Lindor).
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Like we said, really good players always miss the cut.
Some of the snubbery is because of the rules. Each roster has 32 spots. Nine starting position players are chosen by fan ballot. Nine reserves, five starting pitchers and three relievers are selected by the players. The commissioner's office is responsible for the final six players on each roster, and by rule, four must be pitchers and two must be position players. The league must make sure every team is represented.
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So, it's a little more complicated than simply: this guy deserves it, put him on the team. But still, there are always a few names that leave you, and us, scratching our heads. Here's this year's All-Snubs team:
For what it's worth, there's not an egregious snub behind the plate. The NL could have gone with Chicago Cubs catcher Carson Kelly as its backup, but Hunter Goodman's had a great offensive season and is the ideal Colorado Rockies representative. If either team had carried a third catcher, though, rookie Narváez would have been a great fit (and a great story). Acquired in a minor offseason trade from the rival New York Yankees, Narváez has been an above-average hitter (118 wRC+) with elite defensive metrics. The total package has the fourth-highest fWAR among MLB catchers. Narváez was supposed to be a backup, but he's had an All-Star-caliber first half.
There are just too many good first basemen in the National League. The fans picked Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman as the starter, the players voted Pete Alonso of the New York Mets as the backup. The league added the Atlanta Braves' Matt Olson, who happens to be the Major League leader in fWAR at the position. It's a great group, but it left no room for Busch, who's fifth in the Majors — regardless of position — in wRC+.
By that metric, only Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh, Will Smith and Shohei Ohtani have been better hitters, yet there's no room for Busch on the NL roster.
By fWAR, the second base starters should be Ketel Marte and Gleyber Torres (they are), and both Brendan Donovan and Jazz Chisholm Jr. should be backups (they are). The AL also had room for Tampa Bay Rays second baseman Brandon Lowe, who was chosen by the players. All are fine choices. But the Baseball Reference version of WAR says Hoerner, actually, has been the best second baseman in baseball this season. And, honestly, how has that guy not been an All-Star yet? Hoerner is 28, and his 18.8 JAWS rating is probably not Cooperstown-bound, but it's better than Torres, who just made his third All-Star team, or Lowe, who just made his second. Hoerner's been a consistent 4 WAR player, which is pretty good, and should get him to an All-Star Game eventually. Just not this year.
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It's hard to find a clear path for a guy like McKinstry to make an All-Star team. He's 11th in the AL in fWAR, but he's gotten there by playing third base, right field, left field and shortstop (plus one start at second). Only two third basemen — All-Star Game starters José Ramirez and Manny Machado — have a higher fWAR, but McKinistry plays only about half his games at third base. Ernie Clement of the Blue Jays and Maikel Garcia of the Royals have also generated a lot of value while playing a lot of third base, but also a lot of other positions. Isaac Paredes of the Houston Astros also has All-Star-type numbers at third, but it's McKinstry who might have missed out by not having a traditional set position.
This is probably the biggest snub of the bunch (a distinction that would have gone to Bobby Witt Jr. had the league not used one of its at-large spots to get Witt on the AL team). It's a shame the league couldn't do the same for Turner, who ranks eighth in the majors in fWAR, which is higher than the NL's starting shortstop Francisco Lindor or its backup Elly De La Cruz.
Those two have also been excellent, but Turner's defense (9 outs above average) has made him arguably a better all-around player. The NL just has too many good first basemen, shortstops and designated hitters to include them all. Maybe there's a path for Turner to get there eventually. If not, being left out worked out pretty well for Lindor last season.
Cubs outfielder and designated hitter Seiya Suzuki leads baseball in RBIs. Twenty years ago, would that have made him not only an All-Star, it would have put him in the starting lineup (probably as the clean-up hitter). In today's game, that just makes him one of several really good hitters who didn't make the cut. Soto, after a slow start to the season, is now eighth in the Majors in wRC+ and third in on-base percentage. He's been looking more and more like his All-Star self. Pages is 15th in the Majors in fWAR and Rafaela is 27th. Rafaela is a curious case because he's only slightly above-average as a hitter (101 wRC+), but he's also a great baserunner, and defensively he's one of three players to be worth 14 outs above average this season. It's hard for a player to make an All-Star team strictly on the strength of his defense, but Rafaela made a case.
Devers might have been the starting designated hitter in the American League — at the very least he probably would have been the backup to Ryan O'Hearn — but last month Devers got traded from the Red Sox to the Giants, meaning he's now in the NL with Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Schwarber. Devers is 21st in the majors in wRC+ and having one of the best seasons of his standout career, but there's no making the All-Star team ahead of Ohtani and Schwarber, so Devers will have to wait for another year (or another trade).
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We could keep going.
Spencer Schwellenbach of the Braves, Sonny Gray of the Cardinals, Seth Lugo of the Royals, Mitch Keller of the Pirates — all have been good this year and might have made the All-Star team in another year. But then again, starting pitchers always get left out, and they also tend to drop out — either because of injury or because they pitch the Sunday before the All-Star break — so a lot of these snubs will end up making the team (Sánchez was one of our snubs last year and was ultimately added).
Of our snubs, Ryan is maybe not the biggest name, but he has the second-lowest WHIP, sixth-best strikeout-to-walk ratio, and 16th-best ERA among all qualified starters. Senga is not a qualified starter (he got hurt in June), but before his injury, he was leading the Majors with a 1.47 ERA. Rodón has the most strikeouts of any pitcher who didn't make the team. Valdez has the most innings of the snubs (with an All-Star-like 2.90 ERA).
Each league went with the minimum three relievers, all chosen by the players' ballot. The league office gets to pick four at-large pitchers in each league but added no bullpen arms. Left out — among others — were Rogers (who walks almost no one), Jax (who strikes out 40 percent of the batters he faces), Abreu (who's allowed a run in one of his last 17 appearances), Santana (who's fifth among relievers in Win Probability Added), and Smith (who leads all relievers in FIP and fWAR). The league also largely ignored saves, leaving out Kansas City Royals closer Carlos Estévez and San Diego Padres closer Robert Suarez who are tied for the second-most saves in baseball.
(Top photo of Devers: Christian Petersen / Getty Images)