NFL offseason power rankings: No. 18 Dallas Cowboys can't escape talk of their title drought

Yahoo

a day ago

When the Dallas Cowboys won their third Super Bowl of the Jerry Jones era, Jones was 53 years old. Jones is 82 now, still stuck on three Super Bowls.
The Cowboys' drought follows them around everywhere. Their last Super Bowl season was 30 years ago. They haven't made a conference championship game since then either, amazingly enough the longest dry spell in the NFC. When Jones says the Cowboys are going "all in" on offseason moves and it doesn't happen, he hears about how long it has been since they won. When he makes the unexciting hire of first-time head coach Brian Schottenheimer, everyone wonders why there wasn't more urgency.
Advertisement
It's not just Jones chasing a title, though he's the most visible owner in the NFL and the face of the franchise. Dak Prescott has had a good career but he can't escape the annoying talk about his legacy, not even in the middle of June when the NBA Finals was going on.
"I wanna win a championship," Prescott said, via the team's site. "The legacy and the things, and whatever comes after I finish playing, will take care of itself. I wanna win a championship. Be damned if it's just for my legacy, for this team, for my personal being, for my sanity — the legacy will take care of itself."
The problem is, in the past year the Cowboys have drifted further from breaking those championship streaks. The Cowboys won 12 games each season from 2021-23 but had little playoff success, and then last season went sour fast. By the time Dak Prescott suffered a season-ending hamstring injury Dallas was 3-5. They did well to rally to a 7-10 record, but it's not like Cowboys fans are content with battling hard in a losing season. They lost a lot of ground in the NFC East to the Eagles and Commanders, who faced off in the NFC championship game.
Mike McCarthy wasn't brought back and every big name, whether available or not, was linked to Jones and his coaching search (remember when Deion Sanders was going to be Dallas' coach? Fun times). Jones made the unpopular move of hiring Schottenheimer from within. Schottenheimer hasn't been a head coach before and now takes over the NFL's biggest circus.
Advertisement
"If you don't think I can operate out of my comfort zone you're so wrong," Jones said, via the team's site. "This is as big a risk as you could take, no head coaching experience."
There is talent remaining on the roster. Prescott has a long history of being productive, as long as he's healthy. CeeDee Lamb is a legitimate No. 1 receiver and George Pickens, acquired in a trade with the Steelers, has the ability to be one of the best No. 2 receivers in the NFL. Of course, that depends on Pickens' attitude that caused the Steelers to give up on him after three seasons. The defense wasn't good last season but can bounce back quickly with new coordinator Matt Eberflus and annual Defensive Player of the Year candidate Micah Parsons.
Plenty of the star players who led those 12-win seasons not long ago are around. Championship success just seems further away now, though the constant overreaction to anything regarding the Cowboys might be a factor in that.
Schottenheimer will have to manage championship expectations for a team that hasn't even made the NFL's final four in three decades, which isn't easy. For any other coach taking over a 7-10 team in his first job, he wouldn't be answering many questions about when he'll make a Super Bowl.
Advertisement
When you're coaching the Cowboys, you can't escape it.
'I don't get caught up in the drought,' Schottenheimer said. 'This is one year. This is the first year of mine. Are we going to win the Super Bowl this year? I hope. I think we are. If we don't, you move on.'
Offseason grade
The Cowboys' big move was to take a shot on receiver George Pickens, who is undeniably talented and fills a position of need, but wore out his welcome fast in Pittsburgh. Dallas traded a 2026 third-round pick and had a late-round pick swap with the Steelers to get Pickens. The Cowboys needed to gamble because they lacked offensive playmakers other than CeeDee Lamb. The other big move was retaining defensive tackle Osa Odighizuwa, who was one of the top free agents on the market but chose to return to the Cowboys for $80 million over four years. Many of the Cowboys' veteran additions mostly had the same type: former first-round picks who didn't work out as hoped elsewhere. In that group Dallas added defensive linemen Solomon Thomas, Payton Turner and Dante Fowler Jr., cornerback Kaiir Elam and linebacker Kenneth Murray Jr. The latter two came via trades. The Cowboys didn't do much to address running back, adding Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders while losing Rico Dowdle, who rushed for 1,000 yards last season. The draft brought a lot of value, with the picks of offensive lineman Tyler Booker (first round), defensive end Donovan Ezeiruaku (second round) and cornerback Shavon Revel (third round) all getting good reviews. Booker helps replace retired Zack Martin, a Cowboys legend whose play had been slipping due to injuries. Fifth-round pick Jaydon Blue could factor in at running back too. The success of the offseason will be judged in large part on whether Pickens works out.
Advertisement
Grade: B
Quarterback report
In Brian Schottenheimer's first 14 seasons as an offensive coordinator, his teams finished in the top half of the NFL in passing attempts once, when the 2008 Jets (with Brett Favre) were 13th. The last two seasons the Cowboys were in the top 10 in pass attempts but Mike McCarthy was calling plays.
"I've watched him have deference to experience," Jerry Jones said as he announced Schottenheimer as Dallas' next head coach, via the team's site. "I've watched him bite his lip sometimes, when he didn't necessarily agree with the direction."
Advertisement
Will Schottenheimer lean heavily on Dak Prescott this season, or stick to his running game roots? Schottenheimer talked about being flexible, and the starting point for his offense was "things that our players do well." The Cowboys are better suited to pass the ball. The running back room of Javonte Williams, Miles Sanders and rookie Jaydon Blue might be the worst in the NFL. Still, that might not lead to Prescott being among the NFL's leaders in pass attempts. Schottenheimer did talk about leaning on pre-snap motion, play-action passing and a quick tempo, all concepts that have been embraced by most forward thinking coaches. But it would be a surprise to see Schottenheimer stray too far from his old school roots. Prescott understands that.
"We just got to get to running the ball, being a little bit more consistent on that," Prescott said, via the team's site. "Then from there go back and look at the numbers, I've always enjoyed play action pass or just being able to get back to that, but you've got to start with the run game, and when you have that, the rest of the offense can open up."
How much will Brian Schottenheimer (right) rely on Dak Prescott in his first season as Dallas' head coach? (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)
(Jayne Kamin-Oncea via Getty Images)
BetMGM odds breakdown
From Yahoo's Ben Fawkes: 'Oddsmakers aren't expecting a big season in Big D. The Cowboys have a win total of just 7.5 at BetMGM – their lowest win total since 2003. Dallas went under its win total for the first time in four seasons in 2024-25, as Dak Prescott got hurt and the Mike Zimmer-led defense fell apart. The Cowboys are favored in only six games this season. A Week 2 game vs. the New York Giants as a 4.5-point favorite is the most points they are projected to be favored by all season. If you're a true Prescott believer, 40-to-1 to win MVP could be worth a small wager."
Advertisement
Yahoo's fantasy take
From Yahoo's Scott Pianowski: "Injuries have been common with Dak Prescott in recent seasons — he's missed 25 games the last five years — and perhaps it's obscuring what's possible. Consider that he was the QB2 in 2019, the QB7 in 2021 and the QB3 in 2023 — the year he finished second in the MVP voting. The supporting cast looks appealing; the Cowboys have an elite wideout in Ceedee Lamb and now a dynamic No. 2 in George Pickens — if Pickens is okay in that role. Jake Ferguson isn't a bad tight end. And perhaps Prescott will have to throw liberally, given a defense that was 24th in DVOA last year, and a running game that looks pedestrian on paper. Prescott is currently the No. 14 quarterback in Yahoo ADP, and he has the potential to smash that ranking."
Stat to remember
In Dan Quinn's three seasons as the Cowboys' defensive coordinator, Dallas' defense finished 4th, 4th and 5th in DVOA. Last season, after Quinn left to be Washington's head coach, the Cowboys plummeted to 24th. Injuries, particularly one to Micah Parsons that cost him four games, didn't help. But a group that was mostly the same from the season before had a severe drop, and that's concerning. Coaching matters, and remember to not underestimate the loss of key coordinators. Mike Zimmer is out after one year running Dallas' defense, replaced by former Bears head coach Matt Eberflus. Eberflus was overwhelmed as a head coach but was a successful defensive coordinator for four seasons with the Colts before that. With better health and more cohesiveness with Eberflus' scheme, perhaps the Cowboys can bounce back. But after finishing 31st in points allowed and 28th in yards allowed last season, it's a lot to ask for the Cowboys defense to return to a top five level.
Advertisement
Burning question
Is the offensive line better?
While the Cowboys lack of difference making running backs and pass catchers outside of CeeDee Lamb impacted last season's offense, a subpar offensive line was a big reason Dallas got off to a slow start. Dak Prescott took 21 sacks in eight games and had the second highest sack rate of his career. Prescott has some responsibility over that sack rate, but the issues at tackle were glaring too. Among 81 graded tackles by Pro Football Focus last season, right tackle Terence Steele's pass blocking grade ranked 65th and rookie left tackle Tyler Guyton ranked 60th. Guard Tyler Booker was added with the 12th pick and he'll replace retired Zack Martin, but the Cowboys will either be depending on internal improvement from the tackles (especially Guyton, a first-round pick) or move guard Tyler Smith to left tackle and rearrange the starting five. The Cowboys' line needs to improve or the passing game will suffer again.
Best case scenario
Sometimes, talented teams start slow, take on injuries and the season spins out of control fast. And even when the Cowboys' 2024 season slipped away, they were competitive despite Dak Prescott being on injured reserve and with non-stop questions about Mike McCarthy's future. It's reasonable to believe 2024 was the one-off season for Dallas and 12 wins is closer to its true level. Brian Schottenheimer wasn't a popular hire but Jerry Jones knew him well and he could prove to be a good head coach. There's uncertainty with Schottenheimer, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. The Eagles seem light years ahead of the Cowboys now, but it was Dallas who won the NFC East in 2021 and 2023. The Cowboys have never posted a losing season when Prescott plays more than eight games. The Cowboys are the one NFL team treated the same as most SEC schools, where there's no rational reaction when anything bad happens. Every Cowboys misstep is blown out of proportion. Maybe by the end of the season we'll see that one bad season in an otherwise strong stretch wasn't a reason to give up on the Cowboys.
Advertisement
Nightmare scenario
The problem with having blue-chip stars and Jerry Jones' desire to pay them all top dollar is that it makes for a top heavy roster. There's a reason the Cowboys had some holes on defense, the offensive line and at many skill positions last season. Not all of those questions were answered in the offseason. The Cowboys don't have the cap space to make many expensive additions. So the team is hoping that 2024 was a bit of anomaly, and that's not always wise. Plenty can change in just a year. It could be that we saw the roster slip, and maybe all of the criticism over the Brian Schottenheimer hire was correct. Philadelphia and Washington were miles ahead of the Cowboys last season, and we might see that gap widen over the next few years.
The crystal ball says
The Cowboys should rebound, but probably not all the way back to 12 wins. The defensive dip last season, with former coordinator Dan Quinn off to coach Washington, was precipitous and concerning. The Cowboys still have deficiencies at the skill positions, especially if the George Pickens gamble doesn't work out. And we have no idea what Brian Schottenheimer is as an NFL head coach. The Cowboys can probably compete to be the second-best team in the NFC East — catching the Eagles likely isn't happening, and might not for a few years — but getting close to 12 wins seems unlikely. Perhaps Dallas sneaks into a wild-card spot, but even if it does, don't expect a deep playoff run. And then the talk of the Cowboys' championship drought can continue on for another year.