logo
Crude Oil Prices Slip on Concerns of a Mounting Global Oil Supply Glut

Crude Oil Prices Slip on Concerns of a Mounting Global Oil Supply Glut

Yahoo6 days ago
August WTI crude oil (CLQ25) on Monday closed down -0.14 (-0.21%), and August RBOB gasoline (RBQ25) closed down -0.0215 (-1.00%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices on Monday settled lower, with gasoline dropping to a 2-week low. The outlook for larger crude exports from Iraq may boost global oil supplies and is weighing on prices. Expectations for increased Iraqi crude exports may also prompt Saudi Arabia to boost its crude exports to maintain its market share, further exacerbating a global oil supply glut. Losses in crude were limited Monday due to a weaker dollar and the rally in the S&P 500 to a new all-time high, which shows confidence in the economic outlook that is bullish for energy demand.
More News from Barchart
Crude Oil Prices Pressured by Concerns of Oversupply
Nat-Gas Prices Sink on the Outlook for Cooler US Temps and Higher Gas Production
Get exclusive insights with the FREE Barchart Brief newsletter. Subscribe now for quick, incisive midday market analysis you won't find anywhere else.
Weighing on crude is the outlook for Iraq to boost crude exports from its northern Kurdish region through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, where oil exports have been halted since March 2023. The Iraqi government approved a plan for the semi-autonomous Kurdish region to resume oil exports. Kurdistan expects to supply Iraq's crude market with 230,000 bpd of crude once exports resume. Iraq is OPEC's second-biggest oil producer.
Crude prices have carryover support from last Friday when the European Union approved fresh sanctions on Russian crude exports and its energy trade over its war in Ukraine. The sanctions package includes cutting off 20 more Russian banks from the international payments system SWIFT, as well as restrictions imposed on Russian petroleum refined in other countries. A large oil refinery in India, part-owned by Russia's Rosneft PJSC, was also blacklisted. Additionally, 105 more ships in Russia's shadow fleet were sanctioned, bringing the total number above 400 ships.
Concern about a global oil glut is negative for crude prices. On July 5, OPEC+ agreed to raise its crude production by 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) beginning August 1, exceeding expectations of a 411,000 bpd increase. Saudi Arabia also stated that additional similar-sized increases in crude output could follow, which is viewed as a strategy to reduce oil prices and penalize overproducing OPEC+ members, such as Kazakhstan and Iraq. OPEC+ is boosting output to reverse the 2-year-long production cut, gradually restoring a total of 2.2 million bpd of production by September 2026. On May 31, OPEC+ agreed to a 411,000 bpd increase in crude production for July, following the same 411,000 bpd hike for June. June crude production rose +360,000 bpd to a 1.5-year high of 28.10 million bpd.
In a supportive factor for oil prices, Bloomberg reported on July 10 that OPEC+ is discussing a pause in further production increases from October, following its next monthly hike in September of 548,000 barrels. OPEC+ may be concerned about a slowdown in global oil demand in the second half of this year that could lead to a supply glut if the group keeps boosting production. The International Energy Agency said inventories have been accumulating at a rate of 1 million bpd and that the global crude oil market faces a surplus by Q4-2025 equivalent to 1.5% of global crude consumption.
A decrease in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for oil prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -14% w/w to 66.31 million bbl in the week ended July 18.
Last Wednesday's weekly EIA report showed that US crude inventories in the week ended July 11 fell by -3.859 million bbls, the first draw in three weeks. Gasoline inventories rose +3.399 million bbls, and distillate inventories rose by +4.173 million bbls. The EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of July 11 were -8.0% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -0.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -21.1% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending July 11 fell -0.1% w/w to 13.375 million bpd, modestly below the record high of 13.631 million bpd posted in the week of 12/6/2024.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ending July 18 decreased by -2 rigs to a new 3.75-year low of 422 rigs. Over the past 2.5 years, the number of US oil rigs has fallen sharply from the 5.25-year high of 627 rigs reported in December 2022.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Namibia's Oil Riches May Finally Start to Flow
Namibia's Oil Riches May Finally Start to Flow

Bloomberg

timea minute ago

  • Bloomberg

Namibia's Oil Riches May Finally Start to Flow

The world's hottest postcode for oil exploration is Namibia, attracting a who's who of the petroleum industry. So far, the African nation has generated lots of promise, but little in barrels or dollars. That's beginning to change: The contours of its prize are now taking shape. To understand the excitement, let's start on the other side of the Atlantic. Back in 2015, the country attracting everyone's attention was Guyana. Within a few short years, the Latin American nation delivered a gusher for Exxon Mobil Corp. and its partners: Oil production climbed from almost zero in 2019 to 700,000 barrels a day this year. By 2027, Guyana is expected to surpass 1 million barrels a day, putting it on a par with OPEC+ member countries such as Libya.

Oil rises as US-EU deal lifts trade optimism
Oil rises as US-EU deal lifts trade optimism

Yahoo

time2 hours ago

  • Yahoo

Oil rises as US-EU deal lifts trade optimism

By Florence Tan SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Oil prices rose on Monday after the U.S. reached a trade deal with the European Union and may extend a tariff pause with China, reducing concerns that potentially higher levies would limit economic activity and impact fuel demand. Brent crude futures inched up 22 cents, or 0.32%, to $68.66 a barrel by 0035 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $65.38 a barrel, up 22 cents, or 0.34%. The U.S.-European Union trade deal and a possible extension in U.S.-China tariff pause are supporting global financial markets and oil prices, IG markets analyst Tony Sycamore said. The United States and the European Union struck a framework trade agreement on Sunday that will impose a 15% import tariff on most EU goods, half the threatened rate. The deal averted a bigger trade war between two allies that account for almost one-third of global trade and could crimp fuel demand. Also, senior U.S. and Chinese negotiators will meet in Stockholm on Monday aiming to extend a truce keeping sharply higher tariffs at bay ahead of the August 12 deadline. Oil prices settled on Friday at their lowest in three weeks as global trade concerns and expectations of more oil supply from Venezuela weighed. Venezuela's state-run oil company PDVSA is getting ready to resume work at its joint ventures under terms similar to Biden-era licenses, once U.S. President Donald Trump reinstates authorisations for its partners to operate and export oil under swaps, company sources said. Though prices were up slightly on Monday, the prospect of OPEC+ further easing supply curbs limited the gains. A market monitoring panel of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies is set to meet at 1200 GMT on Monday. It is unlikely to recommend altering existing plans by eight members to raise oil output by 548,000 barrels per day in August, four OPEC+ delegates said last week. Another source said it was too early to say. The producer group is keen to recover market share while summer demand is helping to absorb the extra barrels. JP Morgan analysts said global oil demand rose by 600,000 bpd in July on year, while global oil stocks rose 1.6 million bpd. In the Middle East, Yemen's Houthis said on Sunday they would target any ships belonging to companies that do business with Israeli ports, regardless of their nationalities, as part of what they called the fourth phase of their military operations against Israel over the Gaza conflict.

Oil Edges Higher Amid Positive Sentiment
Oil Edges Higher Amid Positive Sentiment

Wall Street Journal

time3 hours ago

  • Wall Street Journal

Oil Edges Higher Amid Positive Sentiment

2350 GMT — Oil edges higher amid positive sentiment spurred by President Trump's announcement of a U.S.-EU trade agreement. The deal avoids a damaging trade conflict with the U.S.'s largest trading partner. Meanwhile, the oil market may shift focus to this week's release of the first survey-based estimates for OPEC production in July, Commerzbank Research's Barbara Lambrecht says in a note. 'It will be interesting to see to what extent the five OPEC countries participating in the voluntary cuts have increased their production,' the commodity analyst adds. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are 0.1% higher at $65.25/bbl; front-month Brent crude oil futures are 0.2% higher at $68.55/bbl. (

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store