Weekly economic wrap: local politics and US tariffs coming next week
It was another busy week on the local political front, with a minister fired, while on the international front countries are waiting to see if US president Donald Trump will TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) or stick to his guns and implement the tariffs he recently proposed.
Lisette IJssel de Schepper, chief economist at the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) says while it was a big week on the local political front, there was some constructive momentum.
President Cyril Ramaphosa dismissed higher education and training minister Nobuhle Nkabane who is facing accusations that she misled parliament.
After Nkabane's dismissal, the DA agreed to support the departmental budget on higher education, essentially clearing the way for the Appropriation Bill to be passed.
'While this will not be the last test for the government of national unity (GNU), she says it is a welcome sign that Budget 3.0 can now be finalised, allowing attention to shift toward the October medium term budget policy statement (MTBPS),' De Schepper said.
ALSO READ: 'Open our eyes and ears' – Ramaphosa on how to tackle US tariff hike on SA cars
US tariffs: will Trump TACO?
She said that ahead of next week's 1 August deadline, Trump announced another 'massive' trade deal. Japan and the US agreed on a 15% reciprocal tariff, rather than the 25% that Trump initially threatened.
'Reports suggest that the European Union and the US are nearing a deal, also for 15%, but this has not been confirmed. Unlike other nations or regions, the EU already announced that it has a retaliatory package ready to implement, if necessary, which puts the global economy at additional risk should negotiations fail.
'Trump has said that 15% will probably serve as a floor for reciprocal tariffs, which means the UK was 'lucky' to have been able to settle at 10% early on. In addition to Japan, a deal was reached with the Philippines, with tariffs at 19%, in line with Indonesia and just below Vietnam's 20%.'
ALSO READ: JSE All Share Index hit 100k points
Oil and gold lower as risk appetite increases
Bianca Botes, Citadel Global director, commenting on commodities, says Brent crude breached $69/barrel as markets cheered progress on a US-EU trade agreement, anticipating that reduced tensions would spur global growth and oil demand.
'Supply-side forces further bolstered prices, including constrained Russian exports and tighter diesel markets due to new EU import restrictions and talks of sanctions on Russian oil. These factors offset demand concerns and underpinned the week's rally,' she said
Botes saidgold hovered near $3 360 per ounce, consolidating earlier gains after a midweek pullback as risk appetite improved.
'Easing of global trade frictions and equity records prompted some investors to rotate out of safe haven assets, but gold still managed a 0.6% rise for the week, benefiting from lingering uncertainty around US Fed policy and geopolitics.'
ALSO READ: Economists lower GDP growth forecast due to global and domestic risks
Rand firmed against the dollar this week
Turning to the rand, Botes says it firmed against the dollar, moving in tandem with rising JSE equities and elevated commodity prices. 'Steadiness in domestic bond yields, resilient mining sector profits and improved global risk appetite provided support for the currency, despite local growth and fiscal headwinds.'
Busisiwe Nkonki and Isaac Matshego, economists at the Nedbank Group Economic Unit, said the rand gained strength on Wednesday, trading at R17.55/$ against the dollar, as inflation increased slightly, suggesting the Reserve Bank (Sarb) may proceed with further interest rate cuts.
'Renewed optimism on the GNU also supported the local unit. All parties in the GNU supported the 2025 Appropriation Bill, dampening earlier fears of a deadlock after the DA threatened to oppose the bill if the president did not act against a truant cabinet minister.
'However, the local unit surrendered some of the gains this morning to trade around R17.77/$ this afternoon.'
ALSO READ: Inflation still low enough for repo rate cut, but only in September – economists
Inflation edged up to 3% in June as expected
Inflation edged up to 3% in June from 2.8% in May, driven by food and non-alcoholic beverages that increased by 5.1% and housing and utilities that increased by 4.4%. The increase in food inflation was mainly driven by an acceleration in meat prices (6.6%) amid supply chain issues due to avian flu and foot and mouth disease, Tshepiso Maroga, economist at the BER, says.
Mamello Matikinca-Ngwenya, Siphamandla Mkhwanazi, Thanda Sithole and Koketso Mano, economists at FNB, say they see headline inflation rising to 3.6% in July, as utility and food costs ratchet up and fuel deflation moderates. For the year, they forecast average headline inflation of 3.5%.
Nkonki and Matshego also said the increase was in line with their expectations.
'The food price increases were caused by temporary restrictions on poultry imports from Brazil due to avian flu, some tightening in local red meat supplies due to new outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease and the lingering impact of earlier floods on vegetable and fruit supplies.'
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Eyewitness News
3 hours ago
- Eyewitness News
US Fed poised to hold off on rate cuts, defying Trump pressure
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But the bank's data-dependent approach has enraged the Republican president, who has repeatedly criticised Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not slashing rates further, calling him a "numbskull" and "moron." Most recently, Trump signalled he could use the Fed's $2.5 billion renovation project as an avenue to oust Powell, before backing off and saying that would be unlikely. Trump visited the Fed construction site on Thursday, making a tense appearance with Powell in which the Fed chair disputed Trump's charac WASHINGTON - The US central bank is widely expected to hold off slashing interest rates again at its upcoming meeting, as officials gather under the cloud of an intensifying pressure campaign by President Donald Trump. Policymakers at the independent Federal Reserve have kept the benchmark lending rate steady since the start of the year as they monitor how Trump's sweeping tariffs are impacting the world's biggest economy. With Trump's on-again, off-again tariff approach - and the levies' lagged effects on inflation - Fed officials want to see economic data from this summer to gauge how prices are being affected. When mulling changes to interest rates, the central bank - which meets on Tuesday and Wednesday - seeks a balance between reining in inflation and the health of the jobs market. But the bank's data-dependent approach has enraged the Republican president, who has repeatedly criticised Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not slashing rates further, calling him a "numbskull" and "moron." Most recently, Trump signalled he could use the Fed's $2.5 billion renovation project as an avenue to oust Powell, before backing off and saying that would be unlikely. Trump visited the Fed construction site on Thursday, making a tense appearance with Powell in which the Fed chair disputed Trump's characterisation of the total cost of the refurbishment in front of the cameras. But economists expect the Fed to look past the political pressure at its policy meeting. "We're just now beginning to see the evidence of tariffs' impact on inflation," said Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics. "We're going to see it [too] in July and August, and we think that's going to give the Fed reason to remain on the sidelines," he told AFP. 'TRIAL BALLOON' Since returning to the presidency in January, Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on goods from almost all countries, as well as steeper rates on steel, aluminium and autos. The effect on inflation has so far been limited, prompting the US leader to use this as grounds for calling for interest rates to be lowered by three percentage points. Currently, the benchmark lending rate stands at a range between 4.25% and 4.50%. Trump also argues that lower rates would save the government money on interest payments and floated the idea of firing Powell. The comments roiled financial markets. "Powell can see that the administration floated this trial balloon" of ousting him before walking it back on the market's reaction, Sweet said. "It showed that markets value an independent central bank," the Oxford Economics analyst added, anticipating Powell will be instead more influenced by labour market concerns. Powell's term as Fed chair ends in May 2026. JOBS MARKET 'FISSURES' Analysts expect to see a couple of members break ranks if the Fed's rate-setting committee decides for a fifth straight meeting to keep interest rates unchanged. Sweet cautioned that some observers may spin dissents as pushback on Powell but argued this is not necessarily the case. "It's not out-of-line or unusual to see at times when there's a high degree of uncertainty, or maybe a turning point in policy, that you get one or two people dissenting," said Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic. Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman have both signaled openness to rate cuts as early as July, meaning their disagreement with a decision to hold rates steady would not surprise markets. Bostjancic said that too many dissents could be "eyebrow-raising," and lead some to question if Powell is losing control of the board but added: "I don't anticipate that to be the case." For Sweet, "the big wild card is the labour market." There has been weakness in the private sector, while the hiring rate has been below average and the number of permanent job losers is rising. "There are some fissures in the labour market, but they haven't turned into fault lines yet," Sweet said. If the labour market suddenly weakened, he said he would expect the Fed to start cutting interest rates sooner. But economists expect the Fed to look past the political pressure at its policy meeting. "We're just now beginning to see the evidence of tariffs' impact on inflation," said Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics. "We're going to see it [too] in July and August, and we think that's going to give the Fed reason to remain on the sidelines," he told AFP. 'TRIAL BALLOON' Since returning to the presidency in January, Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on goods from almost all countries, as well as steeper rates on steel, aluminium and autos. The effect on inflation has so far been limited, prompting the US leader to use this as grounds for calling for interest rates to be lowered by three percentage points. Currently, the benchmark lending rate stands at a range between 4.25% and 4.50%. Trump also argues that lower rates would save the government money on interest payments and floated the idea of firing Powell. The comments roiled financial markets. "Powell can see that the administration floated this trial balloon" of ousting him before walking it back on the market's reaction, Sweet said. "It showed that markets value an independent central bank," the Oxford Economics analyst added, anticipating Powell will be instead more influenced by labour market concerns. Powell's term as Fed chair ends in May 2026. JOBS MARKET 'FISSURES' Analysts expect to see a couple of members break ranks if the Fed's rate-setting committee decides for a fifth straight meeting to keep interest rates unchanged. Sweet cautioned that some observers may spin dissents as pushback on Powell but argued this is not necessarily the case. "It's not out-of-line or unusual to see at times when there's a high degree of uncertainty, or maybe a turning point in policy, that you get one or two people dissenting," said Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic. Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman have both signaled openness to rate cuts as early as July, meaning their disagreement with a decision to hold rates steady would not surprise markets. Bostjancic said that too many dissents could be "eyebrow-raising," and lead some to question if Powell is losing control of the board but added: "I don't anticipate that to be the case." For Sweet, "the big wild card is the labour market." There has been weakness in the private sector, while the hiring rate has been below average and the number of permanent job losers is rising. "There are some fissures in the labour market, but they haven't turned into fault lines yet," Sweet said. If the labour market suddenly weakened, he said he would expect the Fed to start cutting interest rates sooner.
The Star
3 hours ago
- The Star
Trump's Tariffs Must Sow the Seeds for a National Reawakening
Zamikhaya Maseti | Published 9 hours ago Zamikhaya Maseti On August 1, 2025 , South Africa will enter a zone of strategic economic pain, engineered not by global market fluctuations, but by the vengeful hands of conservative economic nationalism. The United States, under the reins of Donald J. Trump, will impose a 30 per cent tariff on all goods and products exported from South Africa to the American markets. This is not a policy of trade readjustment; it is a geoeconomic act of hostility. The justification, wrapped in the language of " reciprocity, " is in reality a strategic blow aimed at disciplining South Africa's geopolitical posture and diplomatic boldness. Trump's economic nationalism, which sits at the ideological centre of Conservative Republicanism, is not merely inward-looking. It is punitive, retaliatory, and profoundly regressive. It has shaken the global trade architecture, not to recalibrate it, but to bend it in favour of America's new mercantilist order. This doctrine does not merely target trade imbalances; it punishes defiance. South Africa is now paying the price for standing on principle, particularly for its posture on Palestine and its landmark case against Israel at the International Court of Justice. It is clear, painfully so, that South Africa is being economically strangled not for what it trades, but for what it believes. Some Western analysts, ever keen to defend the status quo, will dispute this. They will search for economic rationality in an act that is blatantly political. Let them continue their intellectual gymnastics. This moment calls for clarity, not politeness. The truth is that Trump's worldview is transactional and tribal, and in that logic, South Africa has become collateral. That South Africa is seen as an irritant in Washington's new world order is not coincidental; it is structural. And let it be said without fear, Trump's policy on South Africa is influenced not only by economic calculations but by the mythologies peddled by actors like AfriForum and Elon Musk, who have exported the lie of white genocide into America's political bloodstream. But this is not the time for victimhood, nor is it the moment for diplomatic lamentation. It is time for South Africa to do some difficult thinking and embrace a new, muscular pragmatism . Diplomatic efforts, however noble, are unlikely to change Trump's position. Minister Parks Tau and his diplomatic team may work tirelessly, but they are facing a political machine that does not respond to nuance. Trump's narrative is fixed , and in that narrative, South Africa is an unfriendly trading partner whose tariffs harm American interests. He argues, correctly or not, that South African import duties and market access protocols are unfavourable to US goods. That argument, however flawed, resonates with his domestic base, and therefore it will stand. The United States will not blink , and it will not backtrack . Thus, it is not sufficient for South Africa to hope against hope; it must respond. Minister Parks Tau, trade envoys, and industrial leaders must now do the hard intellectual and strategic labour of repositioning the country's economic posture. Nowhere is this urgency more pressing than in the automotive sector, a critical node of South Africa's manufacturing ecosystem. This sector is not only a source of direct jobs; it sustains a complex web of downstream industries, from component manufacturing and logistics to retail and after-market services. It is here that the 30 per cent tariff will hit hardest, and it is here that innovation, not inertia, must be summoned . The sector must accept that the American market , for the foreseeable future, has lost ground. The time has come for South Africa to pivot decisively toward other markets, especially those aligned with its economic diplomacy ambitions. The first option lies in the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the single largest integrated market on the continent , and the largest globally by number of countries. With over 1.3 billion people and a combined GDP exceeding $3.4 trillion, the AfCFTA offers South Africa a natural and politically friendly trading space. Sub-Saharan Africa, in particular, presents high-value demand for affordable, durable automotive products, especially among its emerging middle classes and youthful populations. Research shows that more than 60 per cent of the region's population is under the age of 25, representing a long-term demand curve that is not speculative, but empirically grounded. Yet, South African companies have been slow to leverage this opportunity. There remains an unhealthy fog of Afro-pessimism and the lingering delusion of South African exceptionalism. These intellectual blindfolds must be cast aside . Africa is not a dumping ground; it is a destination for growt h. The automotive industry must shift from waiting for trade to come to it and instead begin creating strategic partnerships in East, West, and Central Africa. This includes setting up joint ventures, service hubs, and low-cost satellite assembly plants across regional economic communities. The second and equally strategic option lies in a new industrial partnership with China. The presence and popularity of Chinese-made vehicles in the South African domestic market has reached a saturation point. They are competitively priced, technologically competent, and now represent a serious challenge to traditional brands. But if left unmanaged, this trend could lead to the hollowing out of South Africa's manufacturing base. South Africa must use its BRICS membership as a strategic lever. China must be persuaded to localise the manufacturing of its automotive brands in South Africa. This is not a charity request; it is a strategic proposal. Chinese companies should be invited to co-invest in high-tech manufacturing and assembly infrastructure in Eastern Cape, Gauteng, and KwaZulu-Natal. This could take the form of co-assembled production alongside legacy OEMs like Mercedes-Benz SA, which now face looming layoffs. The South African government must incentivise this localisation through targeted industrial policy, special economic zones, and technology-sharing frameworks. In this regard, the principle of ' South Africa Inc ' must be revived with urgency. Under President Cyril Ramaphosa, South Africa Inc refers to the coordinated use of economic diplomacy, government strategy, and business networks to advance national economic interests abroad. Its objectives are to integrate South African companies into key markets, attract strategic investment, and drive regional industrialisation. In Southern Africa, this approach has already delivered notable success, such as increased South African corporate presence in Zambia, Namibia, and Mozambique, particularly in retail, finance, and energy sectors. Now is the time to bring the automotive sector under this umbrella. South African diplomatic missions across Africa and Asia must be tasked explicitly with facilitating market entry, assembling policy frameworks, and brokering industrial partnerships for local manufacturers. This is not merely export promotion; it is the safeguarding of South Africa's industrial sovereignty. In conclusion, the Trump tariffs should not be seen as the end of a trade relationship, but as the beginning of a deeper national reawakening. The South African government must retool its economic diplomacy, its industrial incentives, and its regional vision. The automotive sector, in particular, must abandon old comfort zones and rise to this moment with the courage of imagination and the rigour of strategy. What is at stake is more than exports; it is the future of South Africa's industrial identity. * Zamikhaya Maseti is a Political Economy Analyst with a Magister Philosophiae (M. PHIL) in South African Politics and Political Economy from the University of Port Elizabeth (UPE), now known as the Nelson Mandela University (NMU). ** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL, Independent Media or The African.
eNCA
4 hours ago
- eNCA
Trump, EU chief seek deal in transatlantic tariffs standoff
US President Donald Trump and EU chief Ursula von der Leyen prepared to meet Sunday in Scotland in a push to resolve a months-long transatlantic trade standoff that is going down to the wire. Trump has said he sees a 50-50 chance of reaching a deal with the European Union, having vowed to hit dozens of countries with punitive tariffs unless they hammer out a pact with Washington by August 1. The EU is currently facing the threat of an across-the-board levy of 30 percent from that date. Von der Leyen's European Commission, negotiating on behalf of the EU's member countries, has been pushing hard for a deal to salvage a trading relationship worth an annual $1.9 trillion in goods and services. Any deal with the United States will need approval by all 27 member states. EU ambassadors, on a visit to Greenland, were to meet Sunday morning to discuss the latest negotiations -- and again after any accord. Sunday's sit-down between Trump and the EU chief was to take place at 4:30 pm (1530 GMT) in Turnberry, on Scotland's southwestern coast, where Trump owns a luxury golf resort. The 79-year-old American leader said Friday he hoped to strike "the biggest deal of them all" with the EU. "I think we have a good 50-50 chance" of a deal, the president said, citing sticking points on "maybe 20 different things". He praised von der Leyen as "a highly respected woman" -- a far cry from his erstwhile hostility in accusing the EU of existing to "screw" the United States. But late-night EU talks with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Saturday to hammer out the final details were "combative at times," The Financial Times reported. As of Saturday evening, there were "still quite a few open questions" -- notably on pharmaceutical sector tariffs, said one EU diplomat. Tariff levels on the auto sector were also crucial for the Europeans -- notably France and Germany -- and the EU has been pushing for a compromise on steel that could allow a certain quota into the United States before tariffs would apply. - Baseline 15 percent - According to European diplomats, the deal on the table involves a baseline levy of around 15 percent on EU exports to the United States -- the level secured by Japan -- with carve-outs for critical sectors including aircraft, lumber and spirits excluding wine. The EU would commit to ramp up purchases of US liquefied natural gas, along with a series of investment pledges. AFP/File | ROMAIN PERROCHEAU Hit by multiple waves of tariffs since Trump reclaimed the White House, the EU is currently subject to a 25-percent levy on cars, 50 percent on steel and aluminium, and an across-the-board tariff of 10 percent, which Washington threatens to hike to 30 percent in a no-deal scenario. The EU has focused on getting a deal with Washington to avoid sweeping tariffs that would further harm its sluggish economy, with retaliation as a last resort. While 15 percent would be much higher than pre-existing US tariffs on European goods -- at 4.8 percent -- it would mirror the status quo, with companies already facing an additional flat rate of 10 percent. Should talks fail, EU states have greenlit counter tariffs on $109 billion (93 billion euros) of US goods including aircraft and cars to take effect in stages from August 7. Brussels is also drawing up a list of US services to potentially target. Beyond that, countries like France say Brussels should not be afraid to deploy a so-called trade "bazooka" -- EU legislation designed to counter coercion through trade measures which involves restricting access to its market and public contracts. But such a step would mark a major escalation with Washington. - Ratings dropping - Trump has embarked since returning to power on a campaign to reshape US trade with the world. But polls suggest the American public is unconvinced, with a recent Gallup survey showing his approval rating at 37 percent -- down 10 points from January. Having promised "90 deals in 90 days," Trump's administration has so far unveiled five, including with Britain, Japan and the Philippines. Early Sunday, ahead of his meeting with Von der Leyen, Trump was out again on the golf course, having spent most of Saturday playing at Turnberry amid tight security. AFP | ANDY BUCHANAN The trip to Scotland has put physical distance between Trump and the scandal around Jeffrey Epstein, the wealthy financier accused of sex trafficking who died in prison in 2019 before facing trial. In his heyday, Epstein was friends with Trump and others in the New York jet-set, but the president is facing backlash from his own MAGA supporters demanding access to the Epstein case files. With the uproar refusing to die down, a headline agreement with the EU -- in addition to bolstering Trump's dealmaker credentials -- could bring a welcome distraction.
