Knicks, Magic or Cavs: Which teams are prepared to jump up in the Eastern Conference?

New York Times

6 hours ago

After we finished digesting the news of the three terrible Achilles tears of the playoffs, another question emerged: Which teams would rise to fill the void in the battered, miserable Eastern Conference?
Going chronologically, injuries to Damian Lillard, Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton put the immediate fates of the last two conference champions and the team with the conference's best player in doubt. Without those stars, it would be difficult for their teams to compete in 2025-26 and stay financially responsible at the same time. We've seen all three teams grapple with that in June and early July.
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The offseason is not over, and neither is free agency — the likes of Josh Giddey and Jonathan Kuminga are still out there as restricted free agents, and trades could still develop. In the wake of most of the major action, it seems wise to reassess the status of the conference.
Of note: This is not an assessment of these teams' offseasons, although that comes into play. As well, while I am separating the teams into tiers, those tiers are not necessarily ranked in order of the predicted standings, although it largely plays out that way. Within the tiers, I have placed the teams I like better (for next year only) at the top.
OK, now let's get to this before a trade goes down and shakes all of this up. Half-hearted apologies for the snark.
Cleveland Cavaliers (64-18, first in Eastern Conference, lost to Indiana in second round)
Losing to the Pacers in five games was rough, but let's not forget that Darius Garland was unhealthy when he was on the court, while Evan Mobley was also playing through pain. That doesn't take away the loss, and this group has yet to win a playoff series against a team with a passable offense. They are the team with the fewest questions, though.
Garland will probably miss time after having surgery on his big toe. They got Lonzo Ball for Isaac Okoro to help deal with that absence, also making up for the departure of Ty Jerome. Sam Merrill and Larry Nance are back to help with depth. The Cavaliers are the favorite, if not an overwhelming one.
New York Knicks (51-31, third, lost to Indiana in conference finals)
Orlando Magic (41-41, seventh, lost to Boston in first round)
After a calamitous coaching search, they have reportedly landed on Mike Brown as their new head coach. We will see if he is an upgrade on Tom Thibodeau. The Knicks have also battled some concerning chemistry dynamics. But they've had a sneaky good offseason, given their limited spending power. Adding Jordan Clarkson and Guerschon Yabusele at the minimum and the tax-payer midlevel exception, respectively, is nice pruning around the edges. The Knicks might be the most likely team at the top of the East to still pull off a trade, but they are a threat as is.
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As for the Magic, 2011-12 was the last time they finished outside of the bottom third in offensive efficiency. In their top six in minutes played that year: a 2025 Hall of Fame inductee (Dwight Howard), a current NBA coach and executive (JJ Redick and Jameer Nelson, the latter an assistant GM with Philadelphia) and the father of a rookie the Magic just drafted (Jason Richardson). However, Desmond Bane, regardless of what you think of the cost, is a wonderful fit next to Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. Tyus Jones is a functional NBA point guard. If their stars pop, which doesn't seem like a stretch, they could be right there.
Atlanta Hawks (40-42, eighth, lost to Miami in Play-In)
Detroit Pistons (44-38, sixth, lost to New York in first round)
Milwaukee Bucks (44-38, fifth, lost to Indiana in first round)
The Hawks have won the offseason, at least in the Eastern Conference. They took a low-cost risk on Kristaps Porziņģis, signed the most sought-after player available in the non-taxpayer midlevel exception range (Nickeil Alexander-Walker, actually acquired via sign-and-trade) and added some necessary movement shooting and playmaking with Luke Kennard. That's even before addressing the draft night trade they pulled off with the Pelicans, which they could use to further upgrade a roster that features a returning Jalen Johnson. Along with the Magic, the Hawks are the team that has most actively tried to fill the void at the top of the conference.
The Pistons didn't overpay to keep their own free agents (to say nothing of the Malik Beasley situation), instead replacing them creatively with Caris LeVert and Duncan Robinson. If Cade Cunningham continues to grow and one or both of Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren takes a leap, the Pistons could sniff 50 wins.
We've said a lot of words about the Bucks here at The Athletic. I'll keep it short: They have one of the best players in the world and a roster that makes sense around him. There isn't enough talent at guard on that roster, but the Bucks are trying to win, and Giannis Antetokounmpo is too good to write off.
Boston Celtics (61-21, second, lost to New York in second round)
Indiana Pacers (50-32, fourth, lost to Oklahoma City in NBA Finals)
Here's a bet: One of these two teams will finish in the top six in the East next year. Sure, the Celtics will be without two-thirds of the six-man core that led them to a title two seasons ago if Al Horford leaves. Yes, Indiana lost Myles Turner, and has no obvious way to replace him now or next year. Still, both teams know who they are and how they want to play.
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Pencil them in below .500 at your own peril.
Philadelphia 76ers (24-58, 13th)
No, you analyze them. I'm not doing it.
Toronto Raptors (30-52, 11th)
Miami Heat (37-45, 10th, lost to Cleveland in first round)
Chicago Bulls (39-43, ninth, lost to Miami in Play-In)
The Raptors' biggest transaction was the firing of Masai Ujiri. Still, they have a talented veteran starting lineup — it's just unclear if the five players will fit well together, as Brandon Ingram hasn't played since the Raptors traded for him and injuries have plagued the rest of the roster. They have enough interesting young players (Gradey Dick, Ochai Agbaji, Ja'Kobe Walter, Jamal Shead, Collin Murray-Boyles) to give some upward mobility, but being above the tax threshold as an unproven team is sub-optimal.
If you have any faith in the Heat, Erik Spoelstra could be a stealth Coach of the Year choice. (He's never won one.) The Heat swapped out Simone Fonecchio for Duncan Robinson, otherwise bringing back most of the same roster as last year. They were last seen getting swept by Cleveland, outscored by 122 points.
Hey, at least the Bulls appear to be using the leverage of a restricted free-agent market without many obvious spenders to their advantage with Giddey. Other than that, the Bulls seem to be relying on the internal growth of late-lottery picks? If history is any indication, the only question is whether they'll host or travel to the 9-10 Play-In Tournament game.
Charlotte Hornets (19-63, 14th)
The Hornets are clearly in no rush to contend, and you have to wonder what that ultimately means for LaMelo Ball. They gave up on Mark Williams for a second time, trading him to Phoenix for the pick that became Liam McNeeley this year and what's likely to be a late first-rounder in 2029. A fine piece of business. They stole Collin Sexton from the Jazz, and although that created an even bigger hole in the middle, he is much more useful than the outgoing Jusuf Nurkić. Perhaps he can be dealt at the deadline for more future assets.
There is something interesting with Ball, Brandon Miller, Kon Kneueppel and Miles Bridges. For now, a fun League Pass team with a chance at the Play-In is likely the ceiling.
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Washington Wizards (18-64, 15th)
Brooklyn Nets (26-56, 12th)
Marcus Smart! Khris Middleton! CJ McCollum! Malcolm Brogdon! Kelly Olynyk! Look at all this veteran leadership! Sure, they might average 35 minutes per game between all five of them if they're still on the roster before the season, but the locker room is going to be stable as heck. Seriously, the combination of Bilal Coulibaly, Alexander Sarr and Tre Johnson is the beginning of something, but not yet a 30-win team.
As for the Nets, they did exactly what a rebuilding team is supposed to do, save for using ALL of their five first-round picks: They rented out their cap space to acquire more picks. It's fine. If they really want to lose, they could move Nic Claxton to a center-starved team. The Nets are the best hope for an all-rookie lineup (before March, maybe!) this year. Also, assuming Cam Thomas is back — he is a restricted free agent — any lineup with both him and Michael Porter Jr. will be a must-watch (if you hate passing and love tough shotmaking).
(Top photo of Jalen Brunson, left, and Andrew Nembhard:)