Russia rewrites history: What Putin's bet on Taliban means
dramatic reversal of history
and a striking geopolitical realignment,
Russia
has become the first country to formally recognise the
Taliban
government in
Afghanistan
, nearly four years after the Islamist group seized control of Kabul in 2021. This recognition is more than a diplomatic formality. It is a statement of intent, rooted in security calculations and regional influence. It signals
Moscow
's willingness to abandon old Cold War-era narratives in favour of a realistic approach that could reshape the balance of power in
Central Asia
.
From enemies to allies
Russia's recognition of the Taliban government represents a dramatic historical U-turn. In 1979, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan to prop up a faltering Communist regime, only to become ensnared in a brutal decade-long war against Mujahideen fighters, many of whom were ideologically and structurally linked to what would later become the Taliban. These Mujahedeen were heavily armed and funded by the United States and its allies in a classic Cold War proxy conflict. The Soviet war in Afghanistan became a quagmire that cost over 15,000 Soviet lives and also contributed to the eventual collapse of the USSR in 1991.
To see Moscow today forging diplomatic ties with the very forces ideologically descended from those who resisted Soviet occupation is not only ironic but also a calculated reversal. Russia is not just setting aside past animosities; it is revising its approach to regional security and influence in a post-American Afghanistan.
Russia's strategic bet on Taliban
Russia's decision to formally recognise the Taliban government, when no other major power has done so, stems from several strategic and security issues. Russian officials have expressed growing concern about the threat posed by the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-K), an offshoot of
ISIS
operating in Afghanistan. The group has claimed responsibility for several deadly attacks, including the horrific March 2024 concert hall bombing in Moscow that killed over 140 people, the deadliest terrorist attack on Russian soil in two decades.
Unlike the Taliban, IS-K views Russia as a primary adversary. The Taliban, in contrast, has positioned itself as a counterforce to IS-K and other extremist groups seeking to export violence beyond Afghan borders.
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Russia has long considered Central Asia its strategic backyard. The collapse of the US-backed government in Afghanistan in 2021 opened up a vacuum of influence. With the US and its NATO allies out of the picture, Russia sees an opportunity to reassert its role as a power broker in the region. Recognition of the Taliban allows Moscow to position itself as a key interlocutor in Afghan affairs, granting it leverage over border security, refugee flows and narcotics trafficking, all of which directly impact neighboring Central Asian republics with strong economic and security ties to Russia. Afghanistan under the Taliban remains isolated and economically fragile. Russia, facing Western sanctions due to its war in Ukraine, is actively seeking new trade partners and alternative markets. The Taliban has signaled openness to Russian energy and industrial investment, and bilateral trade has been quietly increasing.
While the Taliban government remains internationally unrecognised and is criticised for its harsh policies, especially regarding women's rights and political pluralism, Russia is choosing to prioritise security and pragmatism over ideology and human rights.
This move could have several far-reaching implications. Russia's recognition could prompt other regional powers such as India, China, Iran and
Pakistan
to move closer to formal recognition of the Taliban regime, even if they stop short of full diplomatic endorsement. Russia's decision challenges the international consensus to isolate the Taliban until it meets basic conditions on governance and human rights. This could dilute Western efforts to pressure the group through diplomatic non-recognition. Recognition of the Taliban could also be read as part of a broader Russia-China strategy to build alternative spheres of influence free from US and European control. Both Russia and China are deeply invested in ensuring that Afghanistan does not become a launchpad for extremist movements threatening their interests. Russia's move could have ripple effects across Central Asia, where governments are deeply wary of both Taliban ideology and
Islamic State
infiltration. Moscow's recognition may help these states to engage more directly with the Taliban.
Russia's recognition of the Taliban is a potent example of geopolitical realism trumping historical memory. While the move may appear surprising given the blood-soaked legacy of the Soviet-Afghan War, it reflects a cold calculation.
Implications of Russia-Taliban ties for India
India is unlikely to immediately follow Russia's move to formally recognise the Taliban 2.0 regime in Afghanistan, but Russia's decision opens space for India's strategy in the region, as per an ET report. Ties between New Delhi and Kabul have been warming up over the past year, with India stepping up its engagements with Taliban 2.0 and the regime condemning the Pahalgam attack. Since Russia is India's strategic partner, its move could bolster India's outreach while Kabul-Islamabad ties remain lukewarm.
"Russian overtures to the Taliban may inadvertently open new space for India to assert its own agency," Vinay Kaura, assistant professor, department of international affairs and security studies, Sardar Patel University of Police, Security and Criminal Justice, Rajasthan, and a watcher of Afghanistan-Pakistan region, told ET. "As Moscow navigates its new relationship with Kabul, it will likely seek to avoid dependence on China. This creates an opening for India to engage Russia as a partner in regional stability, perhaps restoring some of the strategic balance that has been lost in recent years."
Russia's recognition of the Taliban offers India a strategic hedge against both Pakistan's influence in Afghanistan and the rise of extremist threats. Now India may move further ahead of its current approach of humanitarian aid, quiet diplomacy and limited engagement. If Russia's recognition further stabilises Taliban rule and incentivises it to act independently of Pakistan, it may help ensure that Afghanistan does not revert to being a haven for anti-India terror outfits. Taliban 2.0 has already shown signs of divergence from Pakistan. It has moved away from Pakistani terror outfits like Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba. Its condemnation of the Pahalgam attack was a public rebuke of Pakistan-based groups.
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