A calculated gesture? The release of Siarhei Tsikhanouski and the future of the Belarusian democratic forces

Balkan Insight

4 days ago

July 25, 2025 - Hanna Vasilevich - Articles and Commentary
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya often campaigned for her husbands release. Photo taken in Vilnius in May 2025 by Michele Ursi / Shutterstock
The symbolism and strategy behind the release
In June 2025, the Belarusian authorities announced the release of fourteen political prisoners, including Siarhei Tsikhanouski, a 2020 presidential election candidate and husband of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. While international observers cautiously welcomed the gesture, the release is less a sign of a regime in retreat than a carefully choreographed diplomatic performance by Alyaksandr Lukashenka's government. Tsikhanouski's imprisonment in 2020 had become a catalyst for the largest protest wave in Belarus's modern history, and his sudden freedom comes at a time when the regime faces mounting geopolitical pressures and persistent domestic unrest.
Tsikhanouski's release is profoundly symbolic but equally strategic. His name has become synonymous with the Belarusian struggle for democratic change, and his incarceration was a rallying point for opposition forces. Yet, the timing and selectivity of his release reveal the regime's intent to manage perceptions and extract maximum advantage from every concession. Lukashenka's government has long weaponized political prisoners as bargaining chips, releasing them not out of genuine reformist impulses but to signal flexibility to the West while maintaining an iron grip on power. This pattern, documented by the Viasna Human Rights Centre and extensively reported by such media outlets as Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and Belsat, underscores that releases are always conditional and instrumental to the regime's broader strategy. Importantly, while some political prisoners are freed, the regime continues to detain many others, underscoring that these gestures do not signal a systemic change in repression.
Aliaksandr Klaskouski, one of the leading Belarusian political analysts, has illuminated how Lukashenka's regime has cultivated a deliberate construction of an ongoing narrative of existential threat to justify repression and consolidate power. Klaskouski argues that the selective release of prisoners like Tsikhanouski fits this framework. After all, it is a controlled concession designed to project an image of magnanimity without ceding real authority or undermining the regime's grip on society.
Geopolitical calculations and diplomatic signalling
Understanding this latest gesture requires situating it within Belarus's complex geopolitical position. The regime remains heavily dependent on Moscow's economic and security support but is increasingly aware of the risks of international isolation and sanctions. By releasing selected prisoners, Minsk attempts to signal a willingness to engage diplomatically, particularly with the United States and the European Union, without undermining its strategic alliance with Russia. This delicate balancing act reflects Lukashenka's broader survival strategy: to maintain authoritarian control while exploiting geopolitical rivalries to extract concessions and reduce external pressure. The release of the American lawyer and political activist of Belarusian origin Yury Ziankovich in April 2025, a move widely interpreted as a signal to Washington, and the subsequent discreet visit made by a US envoy in May, laid the groundwork for the June releases and exemplified this calculated approach.
Some commentators note that these amnesties are often timed around symbolic dates, such as the Day of National Unity, to project an image of national reconciliation and regime generosity. Yet, they also argue that these gestures are carefully staged performances rather than genuine reforms, requiring public expressions of gratitude from those released and accompanied by ongoing repression. The 'revolving door' nature of political imprisonment in Belarus – where releases are balanced by new arrests – ensures continued control and intimidation. This strategy allows the regime to deflect international criticism while testing western willingness to engage diplomatically without demanding substantive change.
Selectivity and opposition dynamics
Valer Karbalevich, another prominent Belarusian political analyst, has emphasized that the choice to release Tsikhanouski but keep other high-profile prisoners detained is a deliberate tactic to sow uncertainty within opposition ranks while maintaining leverage over international interlocutors. The regime's selectivity in prisoner releases is particularly telling. While Tsikhanouski and several foreign nationals – citizens of Poland, Latvia, Japan, Estonia and Sweden – were freed, other prominent detainees remain imprisoned. Among them is Andrzej Poczobut, the Belarusian journalist of Polish ethnicity and a minority activist whose continued detention has become a major irritant in Minsk's relations with Warsaw. The refusal to release Poczobut signals the regime's unwillingness to appear weak in the face of Polish pressure, even as it seeks to unsettle the opposition by freeing Tsikhanouski.
Equally revealing is the regime's choice to release Tsikhanouski but not other high-profile political prisoners such as Viktar Babaryka or Maria Kalesnikava. Babaryka, the former banker and presidential hopeful, commands broad appeal among the urban middle class and is seen as a technocratic alternative to Lukashenka. His continued imprisonment reflects the regime's fear of empowering a figure capable of rallying both domestic and elite support, potentially threatening Lukashenka's narrative of indispensability. Kalesnikava, by contrast, has emerged as a symbol of uncompromising resistance. Her defiant stance during her arrest and imprisonment has inspired both domestic activists and international supporters. Releasing her could reinvigorate the protest movement's moral core and international visibility. By contrast, Tsikhanouski's political profile is closely linked to his wife Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya's leadership in exile, making his release a calculated move to introduce uncertainty within the opposition without immediately strengthening its organizational capacity or international standing. This selective clemency underscores the regime's ongoing strategy of dividing and weakening the opposition by manipulating the fates of its most influential figures.
Opposition reactions and Tsikhanouski's intentions
Within the democratic forces, Tsikhanouski's release has generated a mixture of relief and apprehension. Since becoming free, Tsikhanouski has publicly affirmed that he has no intention of interfering with Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya's leadership of the democratic movement in exile, emphasizing the importance of unity in the face of ongoing repression. He has also expressed a firm commitment to advocating for the release of 'many, if not all' political prisoners, signalling that his focus will be on supporting detainees and their families while helping to rebuild opposition networks inside Belarus. Though cautious about outlining a direct political role or challenging existing leadership structures, Tsikhanouski's renewed presence injects both hope and uncertainty into the landscape of the opposition, a dynamic the regime is likely to exploit.
Some experts have already stressed that only sustained multilateral pressure and coordinated international advocacy can transform prisoner releases from mere symbolic acts into meaningful progress. The international community must resist the temptation to reward Lukashenka's calculated concessions and instead focus on comprehensive strategies that confront systemic repression and bolster Belarusian civil society
Between gestures and genuine change
The release of Siarhei Tsikhanouski is undeniably a moment of relief for many within Belarus and the international community. Yet, this gesture should not be mistaken for a genuine opening or a sign of the regime's willingness to embrace democratic reform. Instead, it fits squarely within Lukashenka's long-standing playbook of managing opposition and international pressure through carefully calibrated concessions designed to maintain his grip on power.
By freeing Tsikhanouski but continuing to detain other key figures, the regime is not only manipulating perceptions abroad but also sowing discord within an opposition usually characterized by unity, which has been one of its few sources of resilience. This selective leniency risks fracturing the opposition's effectiveness at a critical juncture, playing into the regime's hands. Moreover, the ongoing repression of hundreds of political prisoners underscores that the fundamental structures of authoritarian control remain intact.
From my perspective, the international community must recognize this release for what it is: a tactical move rather than a breakthrough. Western governments should welcome humanitarian progress but remain vigilant against allowing Lukashenka to use such gestures as leverage to weaken sanctions or legitimize his regime. The opposition, meanwhile, faces the urgent task of reaffirming its unity and strategic coherence to resist the regime's divide-and-rule tactics.
Ultimately, in Belarus, freedom remains a contested and weaponized concept. The release of political prisoners like Tsikhanouski offers a glimpse of hope but also a reminder of the regime's enduring capacity for manipulation. Meaningful change will require sustained pressure, principled solidarity, and a refusal to be placated by symbolic gestures alone.
Hanna Vasilevich holds a Doctoral Degree in International Relations and European Studies. Her research interests include state ideology and propaganda, identity issues, inter-ethnic relations, linguistic diversity as well as diaspora and kin-state relations.
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Alyaksandr Lukashenka, belarus, political prisoners, Sviatlana Tsikhanouksaya