Beauden in box seat: All Blacks likely to opt for continuity

1News

25-06-2025

Analysis: The selectors will probably go for proven combinations in Dunedin but there could be opportunities for two newcomers, writes Patrick McKendry.
Not many would have predicted the exact make-up of Scott Robertson's first squad of the year, but guessing his first match-day 23 of 2025, which he will name in just over a week, is likely to be far easier.
For all the excitement over the five newcomers in his squad of 33, Robertson and his fellow selectors will almost certainly go with experience against the French in Dunedin for the first Test a week on Saturday.
That's not to say a couple of them — and potentially Chiefs loosehead prop Ollie Norris and Hurricanes loose forward Du'Plessis Kirifi — won't feature.
Much will depend on how the seven Crusaders and 11 Chiefs players in the squad back up after their torrid Super Rugby Pacific grand final in Christchurch last weekend.
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Loosehead prop Tamaiti Williams played in that match despite a minor meniscal (knee) tear and may be on light duties next week which could open the door for Norris to make his Test debut off the bench under the roof.
Likewise, Chiefs loose forward Luke Jacobson is unlikely to be available due to his head knock in the final. Jacobson, his face bloodied afterwards, also lost a tooth. As a result, Crusader Christian Lio-Willie has joined the squad as injury cover.
Jacobson's recent travails may provide an opportunity for Kirifi, one of the more heart-warming stories of Robertson's squad announcement in rural Taranaki on Monday.
At the start of the year, the 28-year-old thought long and hard about his plans before deciding to fully commit to his dream of becoming an All Black, and after being on the selectors' radar for the last three or four years, he is on the brink of a Test cap.
Such has been Kirifi's maturity this season as a Hurricanes' co-captain, it is difficult to see him unduly fazed by a potential bench role in the first Test – and his skillset as a proven turnover winner makes him an ideal impact player.
The make-up of the bench – and the potential impact those eight players provide – is a priority for the coaching staff this year after they watched the All Blacks spurn halftime leads in all four defeats last year.
A blood-soaked Du'Plessis Kirifi carries the ball against Moana Pasifika last month. (Source: Photosport)
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They were up 20-15 against Argentina in Wellington (a 38-30 loss), 12-11 against South Africa in Johannesburg (31-27 loss), and 9-3 against the Boks in Cape Town (18-12 loss).
One of the more gut-wrenching would have been the defeat to France in Paris in November when the All Blacks were up 17-10 at halftime, only to concede two converted tries in 12 minutes after the break to lose 30-29.
After missing the previous Test against Ireland in Dublin due to a head injury, Beauden Barrett played at No.10 in Paris and again against Italy in Turin a week later in his team's final Test of the year.
Of all Robertson's selections, the name of the man wearing the No.10 jersey will again be the most highly anticipated but it would surprise if Barrett does not start the year as he finished the last.
Damian McKenzie filled in superbly in Dublin to help the All Blacks to victory over an Irish team who are probably now New Zealand's greatest rivals after South Africa, given their recent history.
But McKenzie, who started at first-five in the first eight Tests of Robertson's first year, was usurped by Barrett after the All Blacks' narrow victory over the Wallabies in Sydney in September and has been forced to play back-up to Barrett since.
McKenzie also suffered the recent misfortune to play No.10 in a Chiefs team which lost its third consecutive Super Rugby grand final, while Barrett's form in the second half of the season has been excellent – he was particularly good in the head-to-head battle against McKenzie in the Blues' last-gasp qualifier victory in Hamilton.
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Such is Barrett's influence as a leader in the squad alongside skipper and brother Scott, and other brother Jordie, a vice-captain, it's difficult to see anyone other than the 34-year-old, who has played 134 Tests, starting in that pivotal position a week on Saturday.
Billy Proctor, in action for the All Blacks against Japan last year, could earn his third cap in the first Test against France. (Source: Photosport)
The third back reserve, after McKenzie and back-up halfback Cortez Ratima, is harder to predict but the selectors will almost certainly dip into their deep resource of six midfielders here.
Billy Proctor would appear a good fit, with Rieko Ioane potentially shifting from centre to left wing during the Test to accommodate him.
Otherwise, the team virtually names itself, with Samipeni Finau almost certain to play blindside flanker alongside No.8 Sititi and openside flanker Ardie Savea in the wake of Sam Cane's departure.
The French are bringing an inexperienced 37-man squad for the three Tests, with only six players possessing 18 or more caps – the average is 9.3 per player.
With so many players unavailable, coach Fabian Galthie is in building mode - a state that would make an All Blacks defeat over the next few weeks all the more unpalatable.
Potential All Blacks match-day team for the first Test against France
1. Ethan de Groot, 2. Codie Taylor, 3. Tyrel Lomax, 4. Scott Barrett ©, 5. Tupou Vaa'i, 6. Samipeni Finau, 7. Ardie Savea, 8. Wallace Sititi, 9. Cam Roigard, 10. Beauden Barrett, 11. Caleb Clarke, 12. Jordie Barrett, 13. Rieko Ioane, 14. Sevu Reece, 15. Will Jordan. Reserves: 16. Samisoni Taukei'aho, 17. Tamaiti Williams/Ollie Norris, 18. Fletcher Newell, 19. Patrick Tuipulotu, 20. Du'Plessis Kirifi, 21. Cortez Ratima, 22. Damian McKenzie, 23. Billy Proctor.