Ghana, Tanzania, Uganda FX Reserves Most at Risk if Gold Slumps, BMI Says
The three countries already rely on bullion for a significant share of their export receipts, as much as 45% in Ghana's case, 42% in Tanzania's and 35% in Uganda's, according to Fitch Solutions ' BMI unit.
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September ICE NY cocoa (CCU25) on Tuesday closed up +261 (+3.22%), and September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU25) closed up +169 (+3.14%). Cocoa prices settled sharply higher Tuesday on concern that the slowdown in the pace of Ivory Coast cocoa exports could tighten global supplies. Monday's government data showed that Ivory Coast farmers shipped 1.76 MMT of cocoa to ports this marketing year from October 1 to August 3, up +6% from last year but down from the much larger +35% increase seen in December. More News from Barchart Coffee Prices Rally on Below-Average Rainfall in Brazil Below-Average Rain in Brazil Supports Coffee Prices Is the Corn Market Undervalued? Our exclusive Barchart Brief newsletter is your FREE midday guide to what's moving stocks, sectors, and investor sentiment - delivered right when you need the info most. Subscribe today! Concerns about dry weather in West Africa are also bullish for cocoa prices. 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The average estimate for this year's Ivory Coast mid-crop is 400,000 MT, down -9% from last year's 440,000 MT. Another supportive factor for cocoa is smaller cocoa production in Nigeria, the world's fifth-largest cocoa producer. Nigeria's Cocoa Association projects Nigeria's 2025/25 cocoa production will fall -11% y/y to 305,000 MT from a projected 344,000 MT for the 2024/25 crop year. On Monday, NY cocoa fell to a 2-week low and London cocoa fell to a 1-week low on speculation that cocoa will be exempt from President Trump's tariffs, which would ease supply concerns. US Commerce Secretary Lutnick noted last week that goods not produced in the US could be exempted from tariffs. Concerns over tepid chocolate demand are bearish for cocoa prices. Last month, chocolate maker Lindt & Spruengli AG lowered its margin guidance for the year due to a larger-than-expected decline in first-half chocolate sales. 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In a bearish development, ICE-monitored cocoa inventories held in US ports reached a 10.75-month high of 2,368,141 bags on July 22. Higher cocoa production by Ghana is bearish for cocoa prices. On July 1, the Ghana Cocoa Board projected the 2025/26 Ghana cocoa crop would increase by +8.3% y/y to 650,000 from 600,000 MT in 2024/25. Ghana is the world's second-largest cocoa producer. On May 30, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) revised its 2023/24 global cocoa deficit to -494,000 MT from a February estimate of -441,000 MT, the largest deficit in over 60 years. ICCO said 2023/24 cocoa production fell by 13.1% y/y to 4.380 MMT. ICCO stated that the 2023/24 global cocoa stocks-to-grindings ratio declined to a 46-year low of 27.0%. Looking ahead to 2024/25, ICCO on February 28 forecasted a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 MT for 2024/25, the first surplus in four years. ICCO also projected that 2024/25 global cocoa production will rise +7.8% y/y to 4.84 MMT. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
