Did the Surprise-Release Strategy Work for Justin Bieber's ‘Swag' Based on Its First-Week Returns?

Yahoo

3 days ago

It was a quiet start to the summer in pop music, but it's been a lot louder recently — with perhaps the most noise being generated by superstar Justin Bieber's release of a new album with just 10 hours' notice.
Swag, Bieber's first LP since 2021's Justice, dropped at midnight on July 11 after having been announced earlier that afternoon. The 21-track set features another sonic left turn for The Bieb, eschewing the widescreen pop sound of his Justice LP in favor of a softer, more intimate alt-R&B, inspired by collaborators like Dijon, Mk.gee, Eddie Benjamin and Carter Lang. The album bows at No. 2 on the Billboard 200, with 163,000 first-week units (according to Luminate), while launching 16 tracks onto this week's Billboard Hot 100, led by the No. 2-bowing focus track 'Daisies.'
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How should Bieber feel about the album's debut performance? And does it show the surprise-release strategy to be a smart one for him? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
1. Bieber's debuts at No. 2 on the Billboard 200 with 163,000 first-week units (behind Jackboys & Travis Scott's best-selling set), while its lead single 'Daisies' bows at No. 2 on the Hot 100 (behind Alex Warren's 'Ordinary' in its seventh week on top), as 15 other tracks from the set also enter the chart. On a scale from 1-10, how good do you think Bieber and his team should be feeling about that first-week performance?
Katie Atkinson: Considering the whole world didn't know the album existed until the day before — and there was no physical release, music videos or promotional appearances — I'm going to go with a 9. These are big week-one numbers based almost entirely on streaming, and it's Bieber's biggest streaming week ever. Not to mention, if Swag came out one week earlier, it would have been No. 1 (as Morgan Wallen's I'm the Problem spent its eighth week atop the chart with 151,000 equivalent album units). It isn't No. 1, but it's a win.
Katie Bain: I'm sure there's a twinge of disappointment as the reasonable expectation for a project of this magnitude is No. 1 debuts across the board. However, the competition is stiff right now, so I'm sure the general vibe is like, 8-ish, and the idea now is to pull the necessary levers to keep climbing.
Stephen Daw: A hearty, solid 9. Had it been double No. 1 debuts and the dethroning of 'Ordinary,' this would be a strong 10, but moving over 150,000 units and charting more than half the album's songs on the Hot 100 is still a massive reason for celebration.
Kyle Denis: A solid 8. Considering this is a surprise release that had a limited number of formats and a sound that strayed from the chart-topping pop of Justice and Purpose, Swag pulled off a strong showing. Over 75% of the album landed on the Hot 100, and the LP gifted Bieber the biggest streaming week of his career. No. 1s are nice to have, yes, but it's not like he's starving for them on either the Hot 100 or Billboard 200.
Andrew Unterberger: An 8 seems right. Considering how Bieber's sonic detours haven't always been warmly greeted, this getting such a resounding streaming debut and such a major response for its lead single have to be seen as wins — though undoubtedly, Bieb and his team would've loved to see at least one of those No. 2 bows get bumped up a spot.
2. was given a largely surprise release, debuting just 10 hours after its existence was announced. Would you say the first-week response to the set has validated that release strategy, or do you think he would have done better with more build-up?
Katie Atkinson: I think the surprise release was effective, but could have been even more potent if his team had been working on a physical release behind the scenes (not unlike the Jackboys 2 rollout, which had the surprise element and a physical release) or if there had been a 'Daisies' music video ready to roll at midnight. Of course, then there would have been way more opportunities for the surprise release to be spoiled. So if Bieber wanted the purest possible surprise, he got it this way… and his best streaming numbers yet.
Katie Bain: 2021's Justice got the full court press, superstar artist red carpet album campaign. (Including, fwiw, this cover story I got to write about it.) That all worked about as well as the global team that made it happen hoped it might, with the album debuting at No. 1 on the Billboard 200.
That said, I think the sonic right turn of Swag and the general tone of Bieber's public life and persona right now are simply more well-suited to a surprise drop, given that it's effectively a mic drop move that cuts through the considerable noise. The sonic evolution of the album, paired with its release style, gives the sense that regardless of what the messaging has been about Bieber over the last 12 months or so, he's doing things on his own terms. (Here I can't help but think of Beyonce's 2013 self-titled surprise drop, with that out of nowhere release strategy similarly underlining the new direction of that album.) And whether or not Swag could have done better with more build-up seems negligible, as it's doing quite well.
Stephen Daw: It's a validation, I think. Take a look at his last album, 2021's Justice, and you'll see that the traditional release pattern worked — Bieber announced that album about a month prior to its release, and the LP earned a No. 1 debut on the Billboard 200 and 154,000 equivalent album units in its first week. While Swag didn't nab that top spot, it did move almost 10,000 more units in its first week with almost no promotion beforehand; the only reason it was boxed out of the top slot of the Billboard 200 was because of another behemoth album bow. Clearly, the prospect of having a new Bieber project available to listen to within mere hours of its announcement paid off in spades.
Kyle Denis: I think the sneak-attack strategy was the right move. Between the overt shift in sound, the built-in discourse provided by the Druski skits, and the general lack of an overarching visual aesthetic, too much lead time would have given fans too much opportunity to form conclusions and opinions about Swag before hearing it in its entirety. The only downside is that he couldn't pull to release week armed with a litany of vinyl variants and physical listening formats.
Andrew Unterberger: I think it works for this album, because it's clearly not geared for top 40 dominance and it has a sort of spontaneous, of-the-moment feel to it — down to it including skits that address Bieber memes that were still peaking in public awareness the week of its release. There've been reports that he has a more traditionally pop album due in 2026, I'm confident that one will get the full advance push, and also probably be better off for it.
3. Much has been made of the sonic left-turn of the set, with Bieber adopting a more organic, alt-influenced approach to R&B (influenced by collaborators Dijon, Mk.gee, Carter Lang, Eddie Benjamin and more). Do you think the transition has been a successful one for Bieber?
Katie Atkinson: It's a perfect fit, honestly. And even more so than the sound of those contemporaries, I keep hearing a much earlier inspiration of 'quiet storm' R&B — albeit in a much rawer production. There are so many songs that I feel like are reaching for the sound of Michael Jackson's 'Human Nature' (which is a pretty high bar to reach for). His fans have always clamored for R&Bieber, and this feels like a natural sound for his adult evolution.
Katie Bain: Absolutely. To my ears, Swag is the most cohesive and fully formed (read: best) Bieber album yet. Nothing sounds put on or like made-in-a-lab pop music. His collaborators all feel extremely well-suited and bring their own flavor while also helping Bieber make that flavor his own. I feel like he's been working towards this level of authentic artist statement for a while, and with the R&B meets AM radio sound on Swag, he claims it.
Stephen Daw: By the numbers, by the audience's reaction, by the reviews and by my own personal taste, I'd say yes, this is definitely a successful pivot for Justin. Sure, there were some songs that didn't quite work as well for me on this album (I could've done without the interstitial skits), but the ones that did work felt like they were really excellent additions to his discography. It also didn't feel forced — Justin has been steadily moving into his R&B lane since Changes, so watching him lean into this slightly more experimental R&B sound felt natural to the progression he's been building over the last half-decade.
Kyle Denis: Yes. From Believe deep cuts to Journals, Changes and 'Peaches' — which earned him his first R&B Grammy nod — R&B has always informed Bieber's music. With Swag, this alternative-minded approach feels like a more natural fit than the faceless trap&B he played with on Changes. The Biebs' voice has always shone best, to me, against analog instrumentation, and there's plenty of dry, acoustic guitars for him to play around with on Swag. In fact, the album's music is so solid that it only exposes how unnecessary, and generally unfunny, those Druski skits are.
Andrew Unterberger: Sure. Shoulda given it a different title tho.
4. Does 'Daisies' make sense to you as the focus track and best-performing song on the set? What percentage chance would you say it has of eventually dethroning 'Ordinary' on the chart?
Katie Atkinson: Yes, and I think if he had put out a visual alongside 'Daisies,' it would have had a real chance to replace 'Ordinary' this week. If radio continues to grow for 'Daisies' and we get a music video (bonus points if his baby Jack Blues appears in the video, as he's been a presence in the promo photos), there's a clear path for Bieber to score his ninth Hot 100 No. 1.
Katie Bain: I mean, not really. I think that's why it works? It's not an obvious single and it doesn't sound like a whole like the rest of the album, but it does sound really different from a lot of what's on the charts right now. I think that's hooking people. In terms of it dethroning 'Ordinary' — I don't know, but I do think that that song, while nice, is a sound that's been heard before, so maybe 'Daisies' night overtake it on the power of freshness.
Stephen Daw: I wholeheartedly agree with our colleague Lyndsey Havens that 'Daisies' was the immediate standout on Swag. His voice sounds the best it has in years on this track, the accompanying guitar creates a familiar vibe and the track grooves into this natural crescendo that just feels good. Given the right radio push (which is already in the works) and a cool music video, I'd give 'Daisies' a solid 60% chance at dethroning 'Ordinary' in the next few weeks.
Kyle Denis: If I think about it… yes, 'Daisies' makes sense. (Though I can't shake the feeling that songs like 'Yukon,' 'Go Baby' and 'Way It Is' may pull ahead in the coming weeks.) I'd say 'Daisies' probably has a 70-80% chance to dethrone 'Ordinary,' it just needs to build up some motion on radio.
Andrew Unterberger: There's a number of songs off the set that may have worked, but 'Daisies' certainly feels as appropriate as any of them. I don't know if it has much chance of dethroning 'Ordinary,' though — it'll need a ton of radio support (and/or a majorly viral music video) for that, and I can't say I see that coming for 'Daisies' in the near future, if at all. I'd say 20%.
5. Between Bieber's and Tyler, the Creator's this week, we've seen a return to the surprise-release (or at least quasi-surprise-release) album format that had largely seemed to fall out of vogue with pop's A-list in recent years. Do you see this as a potentially meaningful pivot moment in terms of industry strategy, or is it more just a scheduling fluke?
Katie Atkinson: As much as I professionally bristle at a surprise release (journalists like a heads-up), I understand an artist's desire for a shorter ramp into a project – especially artists at the level of Justin and Tyler. Less speculation about what a project will sound like, fewer interviews. It puts the focus almost instantly on the music and not fans' ideas of what the music could or should be.
Katie Bain: If I have to guess, two surprise drops happening so close together is probably a fluke. However, I do think two artists of this caliber both going this route right now suggests a broader fatigue with traditional album campaigns, perhaps on the part of both labels and the artists themselves. Not everyone can pull it off, but for artists with the fanbase and name recognition, it seems like an effective way to cut through the noise and sidestep the demands of promoting a new project in a pretty fractured media ecosystem.
Stephen Daw: I think it's safe to call this a pivot in industry strategy at this point, and Swag and Don't Tap the Glass are just the latest examples. Kendrick Lamar's GNX was a surprise release, and it's been hovering in the upper echelons of the chart for the last 33 weeks. Even A-list albums that are traditionally announced and then released are seeing shorter and shorter promotional windows, and it keeps paying off for big artists wanting to capitalize on novelty in a news cycle that's grown increasingly fast-paced over the last decade. Don't be surprised when we start seeing more and more 'world stop' moments from big-name artists in the coming years.
Kyle Denis: I think it's a meaningful pivot in terms of artists — at least those who can afford to — releasing off-cycle more often. New Music Fridays only get more crowded with each passing week, so dropping albums midweek à la Tyler or Jackboys allows artists to get an entire day's worth of attention and conversation to themselves as opposed to fighting 1,000 acts for a sliver of the public's eyes and ears. I think we'll also continue to see surprise-esque releases for pop A-listers trying on notably different sounds, like Drake surprise-dropping his dance album (2022's Honestly Nevermind) a few years back.
Andrew Unterberger: I think it might be something we start to see more of from artists who don't necessarily want to generate maximum advance hype for their new sets — either because they've been gone for a while and want a softer return (like Bieber) or because they actually haven't been gone for long at all and don't want to risk overexposure (like Tyler). I'll be very curious to see what Beyoncé does for her expected upcoming Part III release; she's always been a true bellwether for industry standards with these things, so if she returns with a sneak attack, that officially means we should all be on high alert for major releases falling from the sky until further notice.
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