Imran Khan behind bars, PTI behind the Lines: what to expect on August 5
Party spokespersons have framed the rallies as a fight for 'justice, not confrontation,' accusing the establishment of orchestrating politically motivated trials to sideline PTI from future elections
The party's central vote banks in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab have historically turned out in massive numbers, most notably during the no confidence demonstrations of April 2022 and 'fill the jails' campaign launched in Feb 2023. Yet this year, state measures like curfews in various parts of the country, mobile internet shutdowns, and the recent convictions of more than 100 PTI members are deterring people from showing up, and are raising fears of fresh crackdowns.
Read: PTI alliance mobilises for August 5 'power show'
Public sentiment is divided. Rural areas still rally behind PTI's narrative, but many urban middle-class citizens worry that more street action will aggravate economic woes and security disruptions. Analysts point to a growing faction within PTI openly voicing difference of opinion over protest tactics - an internal rift that could dampen turnout further unless leadership unites behind a clear strategy.
Meanwhile, Imran is embroiled in multiple legal battles and remains incarcerated. In the Toshakhana case, he was accused of under-declaring and selling state gifts worth over Rs140 million while the Al-Qadir Trust case centers on a Rs7b land donation from developer Malik Riaz, for which the former premier was sentenced to 14-years in prison.
Read more: Imran Khan, Bushra Bibi indicted in Toshakhana case
Separately, Imran Khan was initially convicted for leaking a classified diplomatic cable (cipher case) and for an 'unlawful marriage' trial, both verdicts later overturned or suspended, though related appeals persist. Following his May 9, 2023 arrest, violent PTI-led protests led to over 150 anti-terrorism and incitement charges that carry long sentences, keeping him behind bars as these cases wind through the courts.
Can PTI pull it off?
As August 5 approaches, PTI's protest faces high expectations but also significant obstacles. The party's ability to translate loyalist energy into visible street action will depend on leadership cohesion, grassroots coordination, and how forcefully the state chooses to respond. Here's what our analysts had to say.
Speaking to The Express Tribune, Prof Tahir Malik emphasized that 'there's been no real change in ground-level capacity since May 2023,' but warned that 'a divided leadership and a largely secretive strategy will hamper efforts to rally the masses'. He pointed out that recent 10-year sentences have 'made people fearful of getting arrested and convicted,' which will inevitably dampen turnout.
Also read: 'No political space in sight for PTI'
Meanwhile, Majid Nizami predicted a smaller turnout. 'Without clear coordination between Imran Khan's central command and party workers, turnout will shrink further,' he said. He noted the absence of any fully operational Federal Constabulary personnel despite high-profile announcements as evidence that security forces are likely treating August 5 'more as a routine matter,' deploying regular police units instead of the new paramilitary force.
Both analysts foresee localized sit-ins and rural pickets rather than a single, sweeping demonstration. Prof Malik expects 'small-scale protests, more intense in villages than in cities,' while Nizami believes the event will amount to 'symbolic roadblocks and provincial pickets,' falling short of a mass-mobilization that could shift the country's political dynamics.
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