
Is Israel trying to destroy Iran's nukes — or topple its government?
is a senior correspondent at Vox covering foreign policy and world news with a focus on the future of international conflict. He is the author of the 2018 book, Invisible Countries: Journeys to the Edge of Nationhood , an exploration of border conflicts, unrecognized countries, and changes to the world map.
Smoke rises from locations targeted in Tehran amid the third day of Israel's waves of strikes against Iran, on June 15, 2025. Zara/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images
Iran's state broadcaster, which was bombed mid-broadcast by Israel on Monday, was many things to many people. It was the employer of hundreds of journalists, some of whom were injured in the attack, prompting protests from press freedom organizations. It was also the propaganda arm of a repressive regime, which has broadcast the 'confessions' of hundreds of the regime's opponents over the years, many believed to have been extracted by torture.
What it was not is an integral component of Iran's nascent nuclear program.
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said his country had 'no choice' but to launch airstrikes to stop Iran's imminent rush to acquire a nuclear bomb. But it has also been apparent that this was the floor, not the ceiling, of Israel's ambitions.
'From the beginning, it was apparent, based on the targeting and Israeli public messaging, that this had the potential to be something much more than just a counter-proliferation operation,' said Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran project at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
Retired Gen. Giora Eiland, a former head of Israel's national security council with close ties to the current government, told reporters on Monday that regime change was not the 'explicit' goal of the Israeli campaign, which is focused on setting back Iran's nuclear and missile programs, but added, 'I cannot hide that this is the implicit goal or dream of hope of the Israeli government.'
Could Iran's regime really fall?
The Iranian regime has clearly been weakened by sanctions and the damage dealt to its regional proxy network over the past year. It has few allies, the ones it does have aren't doing much to help, and recent nationwide protests show that there is widespread and deep opposition. But that doesn't mean that the regime is about to collapse after four decades in power.
So far, there hasn't been much concerted anti-regime protest since the strikes began, not surprising given that thousands are fleeing the capital city, Tehran. Abdullah Mohtadi, the exiled leader of a Kurdish Iranian opposition party, told Vox that the airstrikes had caused 'mixed feelings' for his movement's supporters. While few will mourn the death of senior commanders who had been involved in crackdowns against peaceful protesters, regime opponents are also fearful about the destruction and strife the war could unleash, especially if it continues for a long time. 'War itself is not a good thing, but sometimes it presents a window of opportunity. I hope this will be the case this time,' Mohtadi said. Other Iranian opposition figures have explicitly rejected Netanyahu's calls for an uprising, saying the bombing doesn't help their movement.
It's difficult to generalize about public opinion in any country of 90 million people, much less one where speaking out against the government can be dangerous, noted Ellie Geranmayeh, senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, but she said there was a risk of Israel's bombing provoking a 'rally around the flag' effect for disaffected Iranians.
'There is very little love from the Iranian population for the ruling elite,' she said. 'But the more they are seeing pictures of hospitals under attack, civilian deaths rising, state infrastructure, like oil, gas, electricity being hit, sooner or later, public opinion will shift.'
Does America want another regime change war in the Middle East?
Still, if overthrowing the Islamic Republic, not just halting its nuclear program, is Netanyahu's dream, that changes the stakes for the Trump administration given that Israel is fairly explicitly hoping to directly draw the US military into the conflict.
Regime change in Iran had been an implicit goal of Trump's first administration, which pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal, applied 'maximum pressure sections,' and authorized the assassination of Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the second most powerful figure in the regime.
But until just a few days ago, it appeared that the new Trump administration was different. Hawks like Secretary of State Mike Pompeo were gone, replaced by America Firsters who argued the US should either be more restrained in using military force abroad, or that it should shift its focus from high-risk, low-reward engagements in the Middle East to the more important superpower conflict with China. The Republican Party, it appeared, had turned the page from the George W. Bush era.
In a speech in Saudi Arabia in May, Trump condemned the 'neo-cons' and 'nation builders' who he said had 'wrecked far more nations than they built…intervening in complex societies that they did not even understand themselves.'
This Trump administration was perfectly willing to go behind Israel's back to cut deals with Iranian-backed proxies like the Houthis and Hamas as well as negotiate with Iran itself on a new nuclear agreement. Even after Israel's airstrikes started, and Trump belatedly embraced them, he still expressed hope that the Iranians would return to the negotiating table.
On Tuesday, however, Trump said he was seeking a 'real end' to the conflict and might give up on diplomacy entirely, hinting vaguely that something 'much bigger' than a ceasefire is in the works. He has called for the Iranian government's 'UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!' and suggested that Khamenei could still be targeted.
Now, longtime regime change advocates — like Trump's first-term national security adviser John Bolton and Sen. Lindsey Graham — are coming out of the woodwork and urging the US to join Israel's war, with Graham telling Fox News, 'Wouldn't the world be better off if the ayatollahs went away and were replaced by something better? Wouldn't Iran be better off?'
Trump appears to have turned on antiwar supporters like 'kooky Tucker Carlson,' while Vice President JD Vance, who was warned in the past that a war in Iran could spark 'World War III,' issued a long statement saying that the focus should remain on Iran's nuclear program.
What might regime change look like?
In his tweet, Vance noted that Americans 'are right to be worried about foreign entanglement after the last 25 years of idiotic foreign policy.' The chaos that followed the US-backed toppling of autocratic governments in Afghanistan, Iran, and Libya looms over this conflict, as do Israel's bloody occupations of southern Lebanon and more recently Gaza. It's not an inspiring track record.
Eiland, the retired Israeli general, was more optimistic, suggesting that while Iranians were unlikely to rise up while bombs are falling, the operation could make such an uprising more likely down the road. 'Seventy to 80 percent of the people are not only against the regime, they have a very, very pro-Western approach,' he said. 'So it will be relatively easy for these people to create a real distinguished and successful society again, but only after they manage to get rid of the existing regime.'
The hope for Israel may be that regime change would look less like Iraq after 2003 or Libya after 2011 than Syria after last year's overthrow of Bashar al-Assad. Though that hasn't quite ushered in complete peace or democracy, there's been far less instability and bloodshed than many feared following the fall of one of the world's most repressive regimes.
On the other hand, that outcome came only after a 13-year war that killed more than half a million people and resulted in one of the world's largest refugee crises and the rise of ISIS.
Ali Vaez, Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, said a more realistic outcome might look more like either Syria after the initial uprising of 2011, or Iraq following the 1991 Gulf War. 'You might have a weakened central government that loses control over some parts of its territory, but the regime itself will be entrenched, and even if it's decaying,' he said.
None of these outcomes are foreordained. Trump's stance on the war has shifted on a dime in recent days and could shift again. Trump's restraint-oriented advisers may have lost some influence, but wealthy governments across the Persian Gulf and major oil companies may also be wary about a long war that could put them in the crosshairs. Trump has traditionally been more comfortable with short, overwhelming military actions — like the Soleimani strike, or the strikes against Syria in 2017 — than long, drawn-out wars, which this very well could become.
'It could be years of instability, and by the time he leaves the White House, that war would not be over,' said Alex Vatanka, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. 'All I can tell you is that this regime is hated by its people, but also that the US and Israel don't have a good track record in nation building.'
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles


Boston Globe
an hour ago
- Boston Globe
Rap duo's anti-Israel chants prompt UK police to review Glastonbury acts
Irish-language rap group Kneecap also performed Saturday despite a terror charge for one of its members over allegedly supporting Hezbollah, leading a huge crowd in chants of 'Free Palestine.' The Israeli Embassy to the UK said on social media that it was 'deeply disturbed by the inflammatory and hateful rhetoric expressed on stage at the Glastonbury Festival.' Health Secretary Wes Streeting on Sunday condemned Bob Vylan's actions as 'appalling.' He told Sky News that the BBC and festival organizers had to answer questions about how the comments were broadcast live to millions. Advertisement However, he also urged Israel to 'take the violence of their own citizens towards Palestinians more seriously' when asked about the Israeli embassy's condemnation of the band's actions. The minister referred to the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza and 'the fact that Israeli settler terrorists attacked a Christian village this week, setting it on fire,' and urged Israel to 'get your own house in order.' The government said its culture secretary has spoken to the BBC director general about Bob Vylan's performance. Advertisement The BBC said it issued a warning on screen about 'very strong and discriminatory language' during the livestream. Glastonbury is Britain's biggest summer music festival and draws some 200,000 music fans each year to Worthy Farm in southwest England. Almost 4,000 acts perform on 120 stages. Festival organizers said on Instagram that Vylan's chants 'very much crossed a line.' 'We are urgently reminding everyone involved in the production of the Festival that there is no place at Glastonbury for antisemitism, hate speech or incitement to violence.' 'With almost 4,000 performances at Glastonbury 2025, there will inevitably be artists and speakers appearing on our stages whose views we do not share, and a performer's presence here should never be seen as a tacit endorsement of their opinions and beliefs,' it said. Bob Vylan's two members both keep their real names secret for privacy reasons. Founded in 2017, the band has released four albums. Kneecap, which has drawn criticism over its comments on Middle East politics, also gave an impassioned performance for tens of thousands of fans. Liam Óg Ó hAnnaidh, who performs under the stage name Mo Chara, has been charged under the Terrorism Act with supporting a proscribed organization for allegedly waving a Hezbollah flag at a concert in London in November. The rapper, who was charged under the anglicized version of his name, Liam O'Hanna, is on unconditional bail before a further court hearing in August. The group has been under scrutiny since videos emerged allegedly showing the band shouting 'up Hamas, up Hezbollah' and calling on people to kill lawmakers. On Saturday band members led the audience in chants of 'Free Palestine' and 'Free Mo Chara.' They also aimed an expletive-laden chant at UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who has said he didn't think it was 'appropriate' for Kneecap to play Glastonbury. Advertisement Rod Stewart, Olivia Rodrigo, and the Prodigy were among acts playing Sunday for Glastonbury's final day.


The Hill
an hour ago
- The Hill
Iran's UN Ambassador: Iran's nuclear enrichment will ‘never stop'
The Iranian ambassador to the United Nations, Amir Saeid Iravani, said his country will 'never stop' nuclear enrichment, saying it's an 'inalienable right' that Iran plans on exercising. In an interview on CBS News's 'Face the Nation,' moderator Margaret Brennan pressed the Iranian ambassador on whether Iran intends to 'reconstitute a nuclear enrichment program on its soil.' Iravani cited a provision of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) that says non-nuclear-weapon states have a right to peaceful nuclear technology, including uranium enrichment, as long as it remains within certain limits. 'So the enrichment is our right, and an inalienable right, and we want to implement this right,' Iravani said. 'So you do plan to restart enrichment, that sounds like?' Brennan responded. 'I think that enrichment will not- never stop,' he said. Trump ordered U.S. strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites last weekend, as another round of talks were set to begin as the Trump administration sought to broker a nuclear deal with Iran. Many Democrats have said that questions remain about the success of the strikes, which the administration has touted as a resounding success. CIA Director John Ratcliffe and other top intelligence officials briefed lawmakers this past week for the first time about the June 21 strike. The meeting was held as Trump administration officials have worked overtime to push their argument that the attacks left Iran's nuclear facilities 'obliterated.' Reports emerged Tuesday about a preliminary assessment that said the U.S. strikes may have set the Iranian nuclear program back by 'a few months.' The administration has pushed back forcefully at those reports, including at a Pentagon briefing earlier Thursday.


Newsweek
2 hours ago
- Newsweek
Iran Confirms Inmates Killed in Israel's Evin Prison Attack Last Week
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. An Israeli strike on Tehran's Evin Prison on Monday killed 71 people, including inmates, staff and visiting family members, Iran's judiciary spokesperson Asghar Jahangir said on Sunday. Newsweek has reached out to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) via email for comment on Sunday. Why It Matters In mid-June, Israel initially struck Tehran and several other cities in "Operation Rising Lion," a campaign it said was meant to preempt a planned Iranian attack and disrupt Iran's nuclear capabilities, which have long been a concern of Israel and the U.S. Iran, which has said its nuclear program is for energy purposes and not nuclear weapons, retaliated. Israeli defense systems—bolstered by U.S. military technology—intercepted nearly all incoming missile fire, according to Israeli officials, although Iran did strike a hospital southern Israel last week. More than 600 Iranians were reported killed by Israeli strikes, and 28 Israelis killed by Iranian strikes, with thousands wounded it both countries. Israel and Iran entered a fragile ceasefire on June 24, the day after Israel struck Evin Prison. Last weekend, the U.S. joined Israel in its war against Iran by bombing three nuclear sites, Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz, in the largest B-2 bomber operation in U.S. history. What To Know On Sunday, Jahangir wrote in Mizan, the Iranian judiciary's outlet, that 71 people were killed in the Israeli strike on Iran's notorious Evin Prison. The update was republished on the official state news outlet, IRNA. The English version of the Mizan article states that, "Prison administrative staff, conscript soldiers, convicted prisoners, families of prisoners who had visited for meetings or judicial follow-ups, and neighbors living near the prison," were killed. It noted that people had come to the prison that day for various follow-ups on legal proceedings. The outlet confirmed that Judge Ali Ghanaatkar, who served as deputy prosecutor of Tehran and the detention center's top prosecutor, was killed in the strikes. It did not identify the others killed. Mizan also reported that foreign journalists from several outlets, including Associated Press and Reuters, participated in a tour of the area. On Saturday, hundreds of thousands of people filled the streets of Iran's capital for a state funeral honoring about 60 Iranians killed in Israeli strikes over the past few weeks, including top military commanders and nuclear scientists. The office building at the Evin prison sits damaged in Tehran, Iran, on June 29 after an Israeli strike on Monday. The office building at the Evin prison sits damaged in Tehran, Iran, on June 29 after an Israeli strike on Monday. AP Photo/Vahid Salemi What Is Evin Prison? Evin Prison holds many of the country's political detainees in Iran, housing dissidents, journalists, protesters, and foreign nationals accused of espionage. The prison is one of the apparatuses of the Iranian regime's domestic security apparatus. Human rights organizations have long documented abuse, torture and arbitrary detention inside Evin Prison. Notable former detainees include Narges Mohammadi, a human rights activist and a Nobel Peace Laureate, and Jason Rezaian, a Washington Post journalist who was held there for 544 days on espionage charges while serving as the paper's Tehran bureau chief a decade ago. What People Are Saying Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar posted alleged footage of the bombing after the attack, writing on X, formerly Twitter: "We warned Iran time and again: stop targeting civilians! They continued, including this morning. Our response: Viva la libertad, c*****!" Narges Mohammadi, a human rights activist and a Nobel Peace Laureate, said in a June 28 X post: "Israel's attack on Evin Prison, carried out in broad daylight in the presence of families and visitors, is undoubtedly a clear example of a war families of the detained are unaware of the status or whereabouts of their loved ones. Prisoners from the general wards of Evin Prison have been transferred to prisons around Tehran and are being held in harsh, inhumane, and grueling conditions. Furthermore, no official information has been released regarding the status of prisoners previously held in security wards or solitary confinement." Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote in a Persian in an X post on Saturday: "From the bottom of my heart, I thank you dear people; With love, you bid farewell to the martyrs of our homeland, and our voice of unity reached the ears of the world. We have learned from Husayn ibn Ali (peace be upon him) not to submit to humiliation and not to bow our heads before oppression. Serving such a noble nation is the honor of my life. Forever Iran" What Happens Next The ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains fragile. Trump said the U.S. and Iran are due to hold new talks about the country's nuclear capabilities. "We're going to talk to them next week, with Iran," Trump said at the NATO summit in the Netherlands on Wednesday. "We may sign an agreement. I don't know." On Saturday, Araghchi posted on X, "If President Trump is genuine about wanting a deal, he should put aside the disrespectful and unacceptable tone towards Iran's Supreme Leader, Grand Ayatollah Khamenei, and stop hurting his millions of heartfelt followers."