How the Texas floods compare to the deadliest floods of the past decade
The big picture: Flash floods are the top storm-related killer in the U.S., per the National Weather Service, and climate experts have warned that these weather events are exacerbated by global warming.
By the numbers: The national 30-year-average for flood deaths is about 127 people per year, per the NWS.
About half of all flash flood fatalities are vehicle-related.
Zoom out: Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was the deadliest flood in recent U.S. history, with a toll of about 1,833 people.
At least 80% of New Orleans was under flood water in a single day that year, per the NWS.
Flashback: A 1900 storm in Texas killed more than 8,000 people on Galveston Island and several thousand more on the mainland, according to the Galveston History Center.
An 1889 flood in Jonestown, Pennsylvania killed 2,209 people, which included 99 entire families and more than 750 victims who were never identified.
Here are some of the deadliest floods of the past decade:
2025: Flooding in Texas
Flash flooding has led to close to 90 deaths in Texas as of Monday with continuing risk of excessive rainfall. Officials have recovered 75 bodies.
As of Sunday, at least 41 people remained unaccounted for.
Forecasting models failed to predict the severity of the rainfall and residents weren't properly warned of the disaster.
2024: Hurricane Helene hits Carolinas
Hurricane Helene in September was one of the century's deadliest storms in the U.S. with at least 250 fatalities.
The storm, which brought catastrophic inland flooding to the southeastern U.S. and southern Appalachians, was the deadliest hurricane in the contiguous U.S. since 2005.
2022: Flooding in Kentucky and central Appalachia
July 2022 flooding in eastern Kentucky and central Appalachia caused 39 deaths and widespread damage.
"Entire homes and parts of some communities were swept away by flood waters," the National Weather Service said.
2021: Flooding in Tennessee
August 2021 flash flooding killed more than 20 people in parts of middle Tennessee.
This event marked the state's 24-hour rainfall record.
2017: Hurricane Harvey hits Texas
Hurricane Harvey caused 89 deaths, the largest number of direct deaths from a tropical cyclone in Texas since 1919, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
As of last year, the storm was considered the wettest tropical cyclone on record in the U.S., per NOAA.
2016: Flooding in West Virginia
Flash flooding in West Virginia in June 2016 caused 23 fatalities, according to the National Weather Service.
The storm, which dropped 10 inches of rain within 24 hours, was virtually stationary, per the West Virginia Department of Transportation.
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E&E News
13 minutes ago
- E&E News
Flood predictions could worsen when Trump's cuts take hold
The White House is rejecting assertions from Democrats and former NOAA officials that its cuts to weather and disaster spending contributed to the Texas flooding that killed more than 100 people. But that stance sidesteps a looming reality: The vast majority of President Donald Trump's rollbacks to the agencies' funding, staffing and science have yet to land. Scientists and weather prediction experts warned that once he fulfills his agenda, areas around the country could face new risks as federal programs are degraded — from disaster warning systems and satellite observations to funding for flood projects and disaster aid. The Trump White House has proposed cutting $163 billion from the federal budget in the next fiscal year — making it the smallest in recent history. Advertisement 'Lives are going to be lost, property is going to be damaged,' said Rick Spinrad, who served as NOAA administrator under former President Joe Biden. On Monday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt described Democrats who had pointed to Trump's cuts at the National Weather Service in the aftermath of the floods as 'depraved and despicable' and said the offices in the affected area were fully staffed. In fact, both offices had vacancies in key positions, according to NOAA's own records. A spokesperson for the White House budget office rejected the idea that Trump's policy ideas could affect the outcome of disasters. 'It is sad that while recovery efforts are ongoing, people are opportunistically trying to score political points by faulting unrelated budget cuts like the Green New Scam,' said Rachel Cauley. It's true that weather forecasts and warnings were accurate ahead of the disaster despite widespread cuts at the National Weather Service, which is part of NOAA. But weather predictions and forecast accuracy stand to change as Trump cements his agenda, according to a former top NOAA official and climate scientists. Hundreds of NWS officials have already lost their jobs, leaving vacancies in top meteorological roles that warn communities of looming weather extremes. The agency's basic functionality is already suffering. Billions more in federal budget cuts to agencies involved in weather and climate prediction and planning is slated for elimination. That includes cutting entire divisions of atmospheric research at NOAA, half of NASA's science division, labs that study extreme weather, weather-monitoring spacecraft now in orbit and thousands of additional scientists. The proposed Trump administration cuts are so steep to weather prediction and science that the forecast in Texas could be far more accurate than future predictions, Spinrad said. 'If you have a problem with the quality of that forecast, then you want to have a real problem with eliminating the National Severe Storms Laboratory,' Spinrad said, referring to one of the NOAA labs — an extreme weather research facility that Trump has slated for elimination. 'Our ability to improve the forecast, the understanding and the guidance with respect to responding to events like this is only going to degrade, not improve, and this is after decades and decades of improvement in all of these forecasts.' That includes tools for flood prediction and recovery — setting the country up for potentially worse outcomes when extreme rainfall strikes. Compromised flood predictions Chief among the proposed cuts is the elimination of NOAA's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, which coordinates scientific studies on everything from extreme weather to marine ecosystems. Its facilities 'provide indispensable scientific research and analysis for meteorologists across the country,' said Tom Fahy, legislative director at the union that represents NWS employees. OAR houses a network of NOAA laboratories and 16 science consortiums involving dozens of research institutes across 33 states. Many of them study extreme weather, from hurricane research in Miami to severe thunderstorm research in Norman, Oklahoma. They also help build weather models that scientists use to forecast events like the Texas floods. Trump's proposed cuts would also hamstring one of the main tools for observing weather in real time: Our eyes in space. The proposed NASA budget would severely cut funding for spacecraft that are used for weather prediction and modeling future conditions. A number of targeted satellites are already in orbit. NASA's $7 billion science division is slated to be cut in half, with the budget ax centering on climate research. That means predicting future floods — and the development of new tools for forecasting intense rainfall events — would be compromised. The next generation of Landsat satellites is a key example. For about 50 years, the satellites have been an essential tool for monitoring and mapping floods. Their data is important 'for assessing risk, mapping the extent of damage, and planning post-disaster recovery,' according to NASA. Trump is working to eliminate its funding. A few weeks ago, Trump administration officials archived the Landsat account on X and deleted information related to the planning for Landsat Next, the tenth version of the satellite, from its webpage. Weather forecasts gradually improve as scientists add more data. But they'll likely plateau — or even degrade — as NOAA's research and observation functions vanish, many scientists warn. OAR's research 'has been amazing at developing computer models to help in the forecasting of these types of events,' said John Sokich, NWS's former director of congressional affairs, referring to the Texas floods. But if the office isn't reinstated by Congress for 2026, he said, 'that's going to stop.' Some of the agency's most valuable models for flood prediction might be in jeopardy sooner rather than later. The government's accurate forecasts of the deadly floods were made possible by a suite of high-resolution NOAA weather models designed to predict thunderstorms, Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA, said in a live YouTube talk Monday. Having multiple models in the system helps scientists evaluate a range of possible outcomes when severe weather is on the horizon. NOAA tried to consolidate the collection of models into a single forecasting system a few years ago. But meteorologists expressed concern that it might not perform as well, and the change was delayed. Trump plans to revive the plan. 'There's benefit in having multiple models,' Swain said. 'How expensive is it really to maintain that, as opposed to the cost of them missing a catastrophic flood?' 'A disconnect' Meanwhile, staffing cuts at NWS offices across the country are likely to take a toll over time, experts say. NWS offices were adequately staffed during the Texas floods, in part because agency officials called 'all hands on deck' to deal with the disaster, according to Fahy. But the offices still have vacancies in key roles, including a permanent meteorologist-in-charge in San Angelo and a warning coordination meteorologist in San Antonio. Other offices across the country face similar shortages, and experts have raised alarms about the potential for burnout — which can lead to forecasting errors — among exhausted staff working overtime during disasters. At the same time, Trump has cut funding for activities that help meteorologists engage with local authorities. Warning coordination meteorologists — a top position at NWS offices — serve as liaisons with emergency managers and other officials, attending meetings, conferences and tabletop exercises aimed at planning for extreme weather events. Trump has suspended travel funding for these activities, according to Fahy, which could lead to long-term breakdowns in communication and collaboration between forecasters and their communities. 'They need to be able to do this,' Fahy said. 'That is the core function of their duties, which is the outreach of their message.' According to Fahy, vacancies at the NWS offices in Texas didn't cause problems during the deadly floods. But some experts are worried that they contributed to a gap between the severity of the weather forecasts and the way local authorities communicated the dangers to the public. 'Clearly there was a disconnect — the message didn't get to the people who need it when they needed it or they didn't understand it,' said Swain. He added that the science was spot on during the floods. In this case, forecasters were still able to do their jobs. But if Trump's proposed cuts become reality? 'That will 100 percent be responsible for costing lives,' Swain said. Reporter Daniel Cusick contributed.
Forbes
13 minutes ago
- Forbes
Heat Wave Hits Europe, Hot Weather Warnings Issued Nationwide
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USA Today
23 minutes ago
- USA Today
Was there a warning? USA TODAY answers your questions about Texas floods.
Officials in central Texas are continuing search and rescue operations for a fifth day Tuesday after historic flash floods swept across the region. As of Tuesday morning, the death toll is up to at least 109, including at least 27 children and counselors from Camp Mystic, a girls Christian camp in Kerrs County, which is about 90 miles northwest of San Antonio. Flooding ravaged the area after rainfall overwhelmed the Guadalupe River on July 4, surging over 26 feet in less than an hour, Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said. USA TODAY is answering frequently asked reader questions about the flooding. Have a question? Submit it here and check back for updates. Live updates: Over 100 dead in Texas floods; 5 Mystic campers, 1 counselor remain missing Was there a flash flood warning? Officials noted the possibility of flash flooding in the area in news releases as early as July 2. On July 3 around 1:15 p.m., the National Weather Service's Austin office issued a flash flood watch for eight counties, including Kerr. On July 4 at 1:18 a.m., it was upgraded to a flash flood warning, which triggers cell phone alerts to residents in the area. At 4:03 a.m., the NWS Austin office put out a 'flash flood emergency' bulletin: 'This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for South-central Kerr County, including Hunt. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!' But the alerts provided little time to act for those who had gone to sleep that night unaware of the threat. Texas flash flood warning timeline: Warnings for deadly Texas flash flooding came with little time to act Where is Camp Mystic on a map? Is it in a flood zone? Camp Mystic for Girls is a Christian camp in Kerr County, Texas. It's located within Texas Hill Country, a region of central Texas named for its grassy and rolling hills, and known as an especially flood-prone area. The original camp, which was founded in 1926, sits alongside the Guadalupe River, and a second camp opened in 2020 near Cypress Lake. According to data from the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the camp's Guadalupe River campus is within a high-risk flood area. However, flooding can happen anywhere in Texas, including areas not considered to be in a high-risk zone, according to the Texas Water Development Board. Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly said at a news conference that officials "didn't know this flood was coming." "We had no reason to believe this was going to be anything like what's happened here. None whatsoever," Kelly said. How many people are still unaccounted for in Texas flooding? Forecasters said central Texas could still be hit with isolated showers and storms on Tuesday, and relief to flood-ravaged areas will come later in the week. First responders and volunteers continued search efforts Tuesday. As of Sunday afternoon, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said at least 41 people were missing across the state, but with people camping throughout the holiday weekend, that number may be higher. Among those at Camp Mystic, five campers and one counselor are still unaccounted for as of Tuesday. Did NOAA staffing cuts affect warning timing? The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which oversees the National Weather Service, has faced recent budget cuts leading to staffing vacancies. In the immediate aftermath of the Texas flooding, many were quick to point blame about the lack of advanced notice for the deadly event. 'The National Weather Service office did everything they should do from everything I can tell,' Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather Underground, a commercial forecasting agency, and a former hurricane scientist with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters, previously told USA TODAY. Masters noted "how important it is to have talented, experienced people at a well-funded National Weather Service," but added, 'we are pushing our luck if we think the cuts at NOAA won't cause a breakdown in our ability to get people out of harm's way in the future.' Read more here. How to help those affected by the Texas flooding Those looking to help Texans impacted by flooding can donate to several relief organizations. The Red Cross, which is assisting with on ground response efforts, is taking donations on its website. The Community Foundation of the Texas Hill Country started a Kerr County Flood Relief Fund, which will provide aid to organizations in the area that are assisting rescue, relief and recovery operations as well as flood assistance. Donations can be made online. Read about more ways to help here. Submit a question If the form below is having trouble loading, click here. Contributing: Jeanine Santucci, Rick Jervis, Kathryn Palmer, Dinah Voyles Pulver, USA TODAY
