Global Business Travel Spending to Reach $1.57 Trillion in 2025 Amid Trade Policy Uncertainty and Economic Risk, According to New GBTA Forecast
Despite near-term challenges, global spending is projected to surpass $2 trillion by 2029 ─ one year later than anticipated a year ago ─ driven by structural shifts in trade, investment, and corporate travel behavior.
This is according to the latest edition of the GBTA Business Travel Index ('BTI') Outlook – Annual Global Report & Forecast, released today by the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) at the annual GBTA Convention in Denver.
The GBTA BTI™ report is a comprehensive five-year forecast on business travel spending covering 72 countries and 44 industries and includes insights from 7,300+ global business travelers. In its 17 th edition and made possible in partnership with Visa, this latest forecast reflects a continued recovery in nominal terms but signals growing headwinds from global trade tensions and economic uncertainty.
'As we thoughtfully anticipate reaching a new high in business travel spending this year, the outlook is steady ─ but the road ahead is more complex,' said Suzanne Neufang, CEO of GBTA. 'Trade policy uncertainty, inflationary pressures, and shifting global supply chains are reshaping how and where companies travel. This latest forecast reflects the resiliency of business travel and our industry as well as the acknowledgment of the risks ahead.'
According to the GBTA BTI, spending is projected to grow in 2027 by 6.4% and 6.3% in 2028—modestly higher than forecast a year ago. The pace and trajectory of this growth, however, will depend heavily on the resolution—or escalation—of global trade tensions.
Global Trade Tensions Impact Growth Momentum
The latest forecast reflects a moderation from double-digit gains of the past two years. Trade policy uncertainty has emerged as a key risk leading to downward revisions in business travel growth projections for 2025 (from 10.4% projected a year ago, to 6.6% now) and 2026 (from 9.2% projected a year ago, to 8.1% now).
Spending figures for 2024 were also adjusted in this latest forecast – spending rose to $1.47 trillion, slightly below the previously projected $1.48 trillion. While this still marked a new high, real inflation-adjusted spending remains 14% below pre-pandemic levels, underscoring a slower recovery in travel volume.
Impacts Diverge Among Regional Markets and Industry Sectors
In the 2025 forecast, the top 15 markets for business travel spending represent $1.31 trillion. The two top markets – the U.S. ($395.4 billion) and China ($373.1 billion) – together represent 58% of that total.
The U.S. is projected to reclaim the top spot this year followed by China (which led the list in 2024 and 2023), Germany, Japan, and the UK.
India, South Korea, and Turkey are among the fastest growing among the top 15 markets, while Spain and the Netherlands are forecast to have little to no growth or a slight decrease.
Business travel spending across industries will also continue to vary:
Trade-sensitive sectors such as Manufacturing (which accounts for nearly one-third of global business spending) and Wholesale Trade face heightened risks if trade tensions further escalate.
Service sectors like Arts & Entertainment and Professional Services have exceeded pre-pandemic benchmarks, with some growing travel spend by over 20%.
Looking ahead, Mining and Information and Communication are each expected to post the strongest growth in business travel spend, while Agriculture faces the weakest outlook amid shrinking access to export markets.
Global Business Traveler Sentiment Remains Strong
A global survey of over 7,300 business travelers across 33 countries in North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East reveals continued evolution and confidence in the value of traveling for work:
Business travel is seen as valuable—86% rate their trips as worthwhile. Primary trip purposes cited vary by region, with training and conferences topping the list globally.
Most travelers (74%) took between one and five trips in the past year, and over 80% say they are traveling for work as much or more than before 2019.
Average trip spending rose to $1,128 USD (up from $834 in the 2024 survey).
Expense systems are common (67% use them), and comfort with artificial intelligence booking tools is growing, especially in Asia Pacific (78%).
Corporate card access rose to 69%, led by North America (73%). However, only half of cardholders are required to use them. Mobile wallet use is also up, with 64% adoption globally and 72% in Asia Pacific.
'As corporate travelers increasingly expect seamless, mobile-first payment experiences, it's no surprise the report found notable usage of corporate credit cards through mobile wallets. At Visa, we're focused on enabling this shift, offering secure, flexible digital payment tools that meet travelers where they are, and help organizations modernize their expense processes,' Edward Galvin, Vice President and head of North America B2B Commercial Payments, Visa.
Download the 2025 Business Travel Index Outlook report Executive Summary here.
GBTA members can exclusively access the full GBTA BTI™ report on the GBTA Hub here.
Watch the 2025 GBTA BTI Forecast launch video featuring Suzanne Neufang, CEO, GBTA; Jon Gray, Principal, Rockport Analytics and Michael Brown, Principal U.S. Economist, Visa.
To learn more about GBTA Research or inquire about GBTA BTI™ data for 2000-2029, visit the GBTA webpage or email research@gbta.org.
About GBTA
The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) is the world's premier business travel and meetings trade organization serving stakeholders across six continents. GBTA and its 9,000+ members represent and advocate for the $1.57 trillion global business travel and meetings industry. GBTA and the GBTA Foundation deliver world-class education, events, research, advocacy, and media to a growing global network of more than 28,000 travel professionals and 125,000 active contacts. For more information, visit GBTA.org and GBTAFoundation.org.
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