‘My way or the tariff way': Trump's global guessing game
If Donald Trump had a motto specifically for his tariff strategy, it could just be: 'Deadlines are made to be moved.'
This 'my or the tariff way' negotiation strategy of Trump, often directed by his mood swings, is keeping the nations and their economies guessing and giving their stock markets a whiplash.
Across the globe, trading partners are learning that the enforcement timeline is anything but predictable. What begins as a fiery threat often morphs—delays, shifts, softens, then flares up again. Whether it's China, the EU, or India, the playbook remains the same: set a 'hard' deadline, rattle the markets, then move the goalposts.
Take India, for example: A bold 26 per cent 'reciprocal tariff' warning in April, shifted to July, became a 25 per cent formal order for August 1—now bumped to August 7. That's not a trade policy; it's a tariff treadmill.
Mexico is another example that gets tariffs imposed but then- comes a mysterious phone call between the two countries' leaders and- it's a pause!
So, what gives?
Delay by design?
Is this just another case of Trump being Trump—or is there a method behind the delay of the 'no-delay' deadline.
Some see this as a classic Trump power move: set the world on edge with hard deadlines, then pull back just enough to keep markets guessing and rivals sweating. Every postponement becomes a chance to claim dominance. As he might later boast, 'They begged us for time. We stood strong,' or some version of it.
But beyond the posturing, there may be strategic calculations. By repeatedly threatening- but not immediately enforcing- tariffs, Trump builds leverage without inviting instant blowback.
Domestically, it helps delay the inflation hit; internationally, it leaves adversaries off-balance while talks continue behind the scenes.
In essence, it's the art of the tariff tease- maximum pressure, minimal cost- and maybe added power trip?
India: Caught in the spotlight
After months of transactional back-and-forth,India found itself staring down a 26 per cent tariff threat in April—later dialled down to 25 per cent and supposedly effective August 1. Now that, too, has been pushed to August 7.
Add to that a still-un-defined 'penalty' over India's defence and energy ties with Russia, and the policy fog thickens.
Majority of India's $85+ billion in exports to the US are under threat. But with the deadline in constant motion, the uncertainty keeps the investors guessing and bracing for a storm that may never make it to the land.
US-India trade deal still needs to happen
Ironically, Trump's tariff threats might be doing what five rounds of negotiations haven't: injecting urgency into a stalled India-US trade deal. Even without enforcement, the ripple effects are real- shaken buyer confidence, disrupted planning cycles, and a sense of uncertainty hanging over bilateral ties.
A deal could:
Stabilise expectations and give both sides a rules-based framework
Let India retain protection for core sectors while gaining market access
Hand the leaders of both the nations a 'win' that they sell to each of their people
India gets access to US tech while US gets access to India's relatively cheaper labour
De-risk future trade amid rising geopolitical shifts
Tariffs: Performance, power move- or both?
Amid the moving goalposts and the deadline- are the tariffs just for show? Not likely. But performance could be a part of it. Right now, the tariffs come as a simple enforcement tool.
Trump's erratic timeline keeps pressure on adversaries, keeps him in the headlines, and positions him as a relentless negotiator who is simply 'protecting his nation's interests'. To his credit, this unpredictability is portrayed as strength and kindness for showing 'willingness to deal'- even when the policy itself keeps shifting.
For countries like India, the challenge is twofold: adapt to the fluidity of Trump's tariff tactics while pushing for longer-term trade certainty. Because even without duties in place, the shadow of tariffs alone can disrupt supply chains, pricing, and sentiment.
And now, with the August 7 deadline just around the corner, the question lingers: will he or won't he?
Even if tariffs do finally come into place- why did a 'strict deadline' with 'no delays' get delayed again… and again… and again?
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