US and Iran set for landmark talks with nuclear and regional stability at stake
Signs of openness, but also threats, have preceded the negotiations, the first between a Donald Trump administration eager to secure a quick deal and an Iranian leadership determined to show the country is not yet at its weakest point, despite the heavy blows it and its proxies have endured in the past year and a half.
With only a few months to go before Termination Day comes in October for the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that was agreed on by former US president Barack Obama, the pressure is on for Iran to comply with an agreement before more sanctions hit an already struggling economy.
This time, the faces are new, the atmosphere markedly different, and the stakes for the region are higher than ever if de-escalation and containment are not made immediate priorities. The good news, experts say, is that in today's climate, the chances of reaching at least a preliminary agreement are higher than before.
"When the JCPOA was signed, Iran was in the position of the foe for the region. Today, it's not. The sectarian conflict between the two crescents [Sunnis and Shiites] is not there any more and this is a major enabler for success," said Mohammed Baharoon, director general of the Dubai Public Policy Research Centre (B'huth).
Amid this shifting atmosphere, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian struck a notably different tone on Wednesday, extending a welcome to US investors, marking a stark departure from the combative rhetoric typically directed at Tehran's chief adversaries. On the other side, US deputy special envoy to the Middle East Morgan Ortagus told The National in an interview that the Trump administration is packed with officials focused on 'deliverables' and 'outcomes".
Promising signs
Despite the promising signs, challenges remain on the horizon. In 2015, Israel's regional interests were not a significant part of the deal. Today, however, the dynamic has shifted. Israel and the US, particularly under Mr Trump, appear more closely aligned, with Washington showing greater willingness to involve Israel in major regional decisions.
Any solid deal would undoubtedly bring some de-escalation to the region, which has been a flashpoint of violence for more than 18 months and is in dire need of containment. But for many, the question is whether the US is willing to settle for an agreement that would bring a win for Mr Trump as a negotiator of peace, even if Israel is not entirely on board.
"Israel's involvement would add a difficult layer to the talks," said Francesco Schiavi, a non-resident fellow at the Middle East Institute of Switzerland.
"Israel will have a very important role from Washington's perspective regarding the final composition of the deal but, at the same time, I'm quite also equally sure that Trump's approach will lead him to get that achievement even if it's not 100 per cent in the interests of [Israeli Prime Minister] Benjamin Netanyahu."
Still, the onus remains on Iran and whether it is willing to place its potential gains as a regional team player ahead of its decades-long legacy as the face of the "resistance".
Undoubtedly, however, Saturday's talks are historic and will mark the first time Mr Trump has negotiated with Iran. A breakthrough, no matter how small, could be the beginning of the end of nearly 50 years of distrust between the two nations.
"Tehran knows how to speak to the Trump administration," said Holly Dagres, senior fellow at the Washington Institute, referring to an opinion piece written by Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in The Washington Post. There, he highlighted issues that are known to matter to Mr Trump, including incentives for trade and the need to avoid war.
It remains to be seen, however, whether the current faces of Iran's government will be the hope the country needs to break the stalemate and breathe new life into US-Iran relations, its economy and its future.
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