NFL offseason power rankings: No. 19 Arizona Cardinals looks for next step with Kyler Murray

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21 hours ago

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Kyler Murray has been around a while and has played a lot of football.
Murray has started 82 games for the Arizona Cardinals over six seasons. He'll turn 28 years old before this season starts.
'I feel great. I feel great. Personally feel the best I've ever felt,' Murray said this offseason.
"What do they say? You're hitting your prime around, what, about to be 28 years old? I feel good.'
The comment about Murray hitting his prime is a reminder of two things: We're often told that Murray's breakout season is coming ... which means after six seasons the former No. 1 overall pick hasn't had a breakout yet, despite a significant sample size.
Murray has been fine over his career, but rarely much more. His ranks in many stats that compare players to the league average paint Murray as a perfectly mediocre quarterback. His career marks in QB rating+, INT percentage+, TD percentage+, sack percentage+, adjusted net yards per attempt+, adjusted yards per attempt+, yards per attempt+ and net yards per attempt+ — all of which take a player's stats and compare them to the league average, with a score of 100 being league average on Pro Football Reference — are between 97 and 104. All about average. He's near the middle of the road in everything except completion percentage+, which was a bit above average at 112. Murray has always added value as a runner, but has only one season above 600 rushing yards. Lamar Jackson has seven. Pro Football Focus ranked Murray as the 15th-best starting quarterback, slightly above the median, and that seems about right.
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A win-loss record isn't a quarterback stat because football is a team game, but it's not a big surprise that Arizona is 36-45-1 in Murray's starts. Arizona invested the first pick of the draft and then a $230.5 million extension into Murray, and doesn't have a playoff win to show for it.
It's not Murray's fault that Arizona has never had a top-10 defense in his time there, or that he suffered a torn ACL in 2022 that set back his development, or that the talent around him on offense (particularly on the offensive line) has always had some holes. But he hasn't lifted the Cardinals beyond a second-place finish in the NFC West. And Arizona has finished in second place just once, with two third-place finishes and three seasons in last place. It's fair to wonder after six seasons if more is coming, or this is just what the Cardinals will be with Murray.
Last season was supposed to be a step forward for Murray, and maybe the Cardinals, and in some ways it was. Arizona did improve from 4-13 to 8-9. Murray's 93.5 passer rating was his best since 2021. The defense improved from 32nd to 14th in DVOA. There was tangible progress, despite plenty of injuries and ballyhooed rookie receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. not having a massive impact. The next question is what the Cardinals' true ceiling is. There was a lot of talent added on defense for coach Jonathan Gannon, a respected defensive mind. Trey McBride blossomed into an elite tight end (the first Cardinals tight end since Jackie Smith in 1970 to make the Pro Bowl), James Conner is a reliable workhorse at running back and if Harrison has a big second season the Cardinals' offense gets pretty interesting.
How high the Cardinals can fly probably comes down to whether Murray ever has that breakout. If he maintains his current level, the Cardinals can be a playoff team but probably nowhere near a Super Bowl contender. Getting to an elite level will depend on Murray moving up a tier or two. If it doesn't happen soon, it probably never will.
Offseason grade
The Cardinals had an improvement on defense last season and then invested heavily in that side of the ball this offseason. Pass rusher Josh Sweat got $76.4 million over four years to leave the Eagles, and big defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson got $29 million over two years. Linebacker Akeem Davis-Gaither was also added (he'll replace Kyzir White, who was not re-signed), and ageless defensive lineman Calais Campbell is back. In the draft, the Cardinals picked defensive tackle Walter Nolen in the first round and when cornerback Will Campbell slipped to the second round due to concerns over injuries, the Cardinals took the value. Both players have some risk but there's a lot of upside. Both should be rookie starters. The Cardinals' first five picks, and six of their seven overall, were on defense. The offense didn't get much attention, but the defense has all the pieces it needs for a dramatic improvement. And it wasn't that bad last season.
Grade: B
Quarterback report
Some quarterbacks might be miffed at the lack of offseason additions on the offensive side, while the defense got most of the attention, including nearly a whole draft class. Kyler Murray wasn't bothered, saying he knows the offense can improve from within.
"We were able to put up points last year but there were a lot of things left out there that we as an offense, guys in that room, we realize we can be 10 times better," Murray said, according to the team's site. "That's irritating but at the same time, looking at the whole team, I think they did the right thing attacking what they felt necessary."
One area in which Murray can improve is deep passing. According to Pro Football Focus, Murray completed just 34.5% of his passes 20 or more yards downfield, which was fourth worst in the NFL among passers with 40 deep attempts. His 68.5 passer rating on deep throws was also fourth worst. Only C.J. Stroud, Caleb Williams and Anthony Richardson had a worse rating on 20-yard throws. Murray has struggled the past few years on deep passing — the Cardinals haven't given him many true downfield threats at receiver, which is another factor — but if Murray can turn that around the offense would benefit.
BetMGM odds breakdown
From Yahoo's Ben Fawkes: 'The Cardinals surpassed their win total last season (going 8-9 with a win total of 7), and have an over/under of 8.5 at BetMGM this season. With a soft opening schedule (Arizona is favored in five of its first six games), the Cardinals have a chance to get off to a good start. They seem like the third-best team in a tough NFC West behind the Rams and 49ers, but the Cardinals should be battling for a playoff spot. Look for a big sophomore season from Marvin Harrison Jr., who should be the clear No. 1 option at WR for Kyler Murray. I like Harrison Jr. to go over 925.5 receiving yards."
Yahoo's fantasy take
From Yahoo's Scott Pianowski: "Kyler Murray's touchdown rate has been below league average for three years running, and I don't think that's a coincidence. Murray is obviously an undersized quarterback and there are some red-zone throws that he struggles to complete. And while Murray remains a dynamic runner when the mood strikes him, he's not a heavy-volume player in that regard — he averages a useful but modest 33.1 rushing yards per game over the past four seasons. There are so many interesting quarterback options on the 2025 board, I'm not going to talk myself into a player I don't completely trust. Murray is not a target for me this summer."
Stat to remember
The Cardinals had the worst defense in the NFL in 2023, according to DVOA, or ranked in the bottom two in stats like EPA (expected points added) per play allowed. And then, last season, Arizona had the fourth-most games lost due to injury on defense, according to FTN Fantasy's adjusted games lost metric. Somehow the Cardinals rose to the 14th best defense in DVOA, 15th in points allowed and 21st in yards allowed (EPA allowed per play wasn't as kind, with Arizona ranking 25th). The Cardinals were far from great on defense but it wasn't a liability either. Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon deserves a lot of credit for that.
The Cardinals leaning more on the blitz helped. The team's blitz rate went up 9.1% from 2023 to 2024, the second-largest bump in the NFL, according to FTN Fantasy. The Cardinals shouldn't have to blitz as much with offseason improvements to the front seven, which should help the defense as a whole. The run defense was better last season and should improve with the addition of Dalvin Tomlinson and better health from 2023 defensive line additions Justin Jones and Bilal Nichols. Safety Budda Baker is the star of the defense and well within his prime. Assuming better injury luck and impact from some of the many defensive rookies, the Cardinals' defense could be an asset this season.
Burning question
What's next for Marvin Harrison Jr.?
Harrison had 885 yards and eight touchdowns as a rookie, which wasn't bad. It just wasn't the huge rookie season that was expected for one of the best receiver prospects ever. Harrison was a step behind fellow rookies like Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. What was behind the somewhat disappointing rookie season?
Here's the breakdown from Yahoo Sports' Matt Harmon:
While Marvin Harrison Jr. had a good rookie season overall, there's no doubt that it came under some of the extremely lofty, and perhaps unfair, expectations. You have to split the 'blame pie' into three slices to get it right.
"First of all, Harrison himself as an individual player needs to own his fair share. He was a strong separator overall but left plays on the field because he didn't play with enough physicality. He needs to improve in contested catch situations and working back to the football in tight coverage to truly be a top-level No. 1 wideout. Secondly, the Cardinals' coaching staff deployed him in far too static of a fashion. From his Reception Perception profile: Harrison lined up outside on 79.7% of his sampled snaps and was on the line of scrimmage for just over 80%. He was rarely put in motion and barely traveled into the slot. Harrison has the traits and skills to win out at the X-receiver position but almost no team uses their top receiver outside and on the line over 80% of the time. I have an inkling we'll see him used in a more dynamic fashion in 2025.
"Lastly, and this is the part where I have the most hesitation in forecasting change, I'm a little concerned that Harrison's best skills don't align with Kyler Murray's game as a passer, based on watching them play together last year. Harrison's most commonly run route and highest success rate came on dig routes in his Reception Perception sample. He's fantastic at working over the middle of the field against man and zone coverage. You see his polish as a player in this segment of the field. Murray just left so many of those open plays on the field. If we're being charitable, he turned them down, but while it might not be the nicest thing to say, I just don't think he sees them.
"It's reasonable to project growth from Harrison, given he's entering his second NFL season, but Murray might just be who he is at this stage. Positive change in two of the three segments here may well still be enough for Harrison to be a more productive player in his second season."
Can Marvin Harrison Jr. have a big second season? (Photo by)
(Christian Petersen via Getty Images)
Best-case scenario
The Cardinals finished 2023 strong and that carried over to 2024. Arizona should feel like the pieces are in place for another jump. The defense has been completely remade from the ragtag group of two seasons ago. It could be in the top third of the NFL this season. One wild card for the offense is Marvin Harrison Jr. What if he plays like a star his second season? That's what everyone expected of him when he was drafted fourth overall. That would elevate Kyler Murray and the rest of the offense. And the offense wasn't that bad last season. While it's hard to see the Cardinals being that far above average, some metrics say they were better than their 8-9 record last season and they did have a very good offseason. It's reasonable to expect improvements on each side of the ball and if that happens, the Cardinals could contend for an NFC West title.
Nightmare scenario
The Cardinals probably aren't going to be one of the NFL's worst teams. The improvements to the roster, especially on the offensive and defensive lines, provide a steady floor. But that doesn't mean there's a big step forward coming either. Maybe the Cardinals are just going to be stuck in the middle. They have won just one division title since 2009, and that was 10 years ago. They have one playoff win since Kurt Warner retired. Maybe the new pieces don't fit great on defense, Marvin Harrison Jr. has another year of being good but nowhere near great, James Conner's workload catches up to him and Kyler Murray is average again. A year of stagnation, particularly with Murray, would bring on the realization that the Cardinals aren't getting out of their rut anytime soon.
The crystal ball says
While there are reasons to believe the Cardinals might improve again, their upside seems fairly limited. Does it really look like a 10-win team on paper? The Cardinals' win total at BetMGM is 8.5, and that feels right. It's the type of team that will be in the playoff hunt into December, but ultimately go into Week 18 with an 8-8 record. The defense will be better but not great, the offense will have some exciting moments but not enough to get it into the top 10, and the sum will be a team that is competitive just about every week but not enough to scare the 49ers or Rams in the NFC West race.