Dalai Lama risks Chinese anger with reincarnation speech
Ahead of his 90th birthday, the 14th Dalai Lama will release a video-message in three languages amid efforts by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to control the selection of his successor.
Followers of the Buddhist sect believe Beijing is trying to strengthen its hold over Tibet by ensuring a pliant leader replaces the Dalai Lama, who has fought for the region's autonomy for decades from northern India since his exile in 1959.
The urgency of the succession question is rising as the venerated religious leader grows increasingly frail, with aides driving him around in golf carts and helping him to his seat at religious functions.
'So [they believe] if they control the Dalai Lama, they can control Tibet,' Tenzin Lekshay, a spokesman for the Central Tibetan Administration, told The Telegraph.
The 89-year-old's message on Wednesday 'has something to do about the reincarnation because his Holiness has already made certain positions' on the matter clear, he added.
Earlier this year, the Buddhist leader said he would discuss whether the institution of the Dalai Lama should continue at the three-day summit in Dharamshala, the seat of the exiled Tibetan government.
He has also repeatedly said that if his position does continue, the next incumbent should be born in the 'free world', that is from the diaspora community of around 150,000 Tibetans who live outside of China.
On Monday, the Dalai Lama told a gathering of his followers that 'there will be some kind of framework within which we can talk about the continuation of the institution of the Dalai Lamas', without offering specific details.
Asked to provide more information on the content of the announcement, Mr Lekshay said: 'His Holiness says that if the Tibetan situation remains the same, critical as ever, then his Holiness [his successor] would never be born in Tibet.'
He added: 'That's one thing that he has repeatedly said, many times.
'Another thing that he has always said is that if the Tibetan people wish for the institution to remain, then his Holiness would come. If the Tibetan people wish, then he will come.'
China annexed Tibet in 1951, and eight years later the Dalai Lama fled across the border to India after a failed uprising against Communist rule.
Ever since, he has led the spiritual movement with a quiet steeliness in the face of fierce repression. In 2011, he handed political power over to the Central Tibetan Administration, retaining only his role as religious figurehead.
China seeks to appoint its own vetted successor as it looks to 'legitimise their rule over Tibet', Mr Lekshay said.
Beijing recognises 'the Dalai Lama is the only one who could unify Tibet and could make every Tibetan listen,' he added.
But the CCP has 'no legitimacy' in choosing a candidate, given its track record of trying to eliminate the faith.
'With their prior records of being the destroyer of the faith, how could they be the preservers, protectors of the faith?' Mr Lekshay said.
'Even now at this point of time … they have been destroying the Tibetan religious monasteries, destroying the religious institutions.
'The monks are being killed, imprisoned, tortured. The monasteries would be shut down. They have put a lot of restrictions on what the monks are doing, have put a strict surveillance system in the monasterial institutions due to the fear they will rebel.
'China always had this fear of losing Tibet. Even though they control Tibet, they are not able to get the hearts of the people.'
The 14th Dalai Lama, whose name is Tenzin Gyatso, was found as a two-year-old boy.
Tenzin Gyatso was identified as the 14th Dalai Lama when he was two years old when a senior monk had a vision of his village and house in the sacred oracle lake of Llamo Latso.
A search committee set up after the death of his predecessor, in 1933, took two years to track him down, arriving outside the family home during a harsh Tibetan winter.
Even then, he had to be spirited to the Tibetan capital of Lhasa, with payment for passage made to local warlords, to avoid the attention of Chinese authorities.
The atheist Communist Party asserts that it alone can approve the next Dalai Lama, hoping that it can crush what remains of the movement for autonomy following his death.
In 1989, the Dalai Lama appointed a child as the successor to the position of Panchen Lama, the second-most senior religious figure in Tibet. The boy was seized by Communist authorities aged six and has not been seen since.
In his place, the CCP declared a different child to be the Panchen Lama. Now fully grown, the successor affirmed his loyalty to Xi Jinping, the president of China, earlier this month.
Beijing is expected to name its own rival successor as Dalai Lama, whatever the incumbent decides. Typically, senior aides and lamas identify a holy infant after the death of the leader.
However the Dalai Lama, who turns 90 on July 6, can also 'emanate' as another person while he is still alive.
Sources close to the religious leader told The Economist that reincarnation was more likely.
While there has been talk of emanation, the leader of the Tibetan government in exile, Penpa Tsering, said the risks of a power vacuum while the infant Dalai Lama grows up could be managed by the political wing of the movement.
If a successor is chosen from within the community of exiled Tibetans in India, it could present problems for the Indian government. Beijing is likely to punish anyone who contacts or shields the rival to its chosen candidate.
Tensions over the disputed border region in Ladakh eased in October after a four-year-standoff that saw bloody, hand-to-hand battles fought on mountain passes.
On July 12, the Dalai Lama is set to visit Ladakh, according to Tsering Dorje, the chairman of the Ladakh Buddhist Association. The 45-day visit, if it goes ahead, will trigger a fierce reaction from Chinese authorities, who have attempted to edge their border positions deeper into Indian territory.
Last year, the Dalai Lama cancelled a planned visit to Ladakh when Beijing and New Delhi were holding talks on the disengagement of troops from the de facto border line.
Dibyesh Anand, professor of international relations at London's University of Westminster, said: 'The concept of reincarnation in Tibetan Buddhism means that the next Dalai Lama will carry on the messages and work of the present one. And so if the 14th Dalai Lama insists he will not reincarnate in China-controlled Tibet, what legitimacy will Beijing have to transform his will?
'This absurdity is a reflection of Beijing's arrogance and its contempt for religious beliefs,' he added.
'The 14th Dalai Lama is likely to use the announcement to reassert his sole prerogative to decide what happens to his institution in the future.
'Whether he announces concrete steps forward or leaves this open, there will be absolute certainty about Beijing not having any say in the matter. So, Beijing is likely to respond with a mix of anger and contempt and repeat that it will go ahead with its plans.'
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