Wimbledon preview: Carlos Alcaraz, tour-leading grass courter, vs Jannik Sinner, who has to prove he isn't one-dimensional

Indian Express

19 hours ago

It is a good time to be Carlos Alcaraz.
The 22-year-old defended his French Open title in epic fashion, producing one of the great comebacks in tennis history, to win a fifth Major title last month. He followed it up by adjusting to grass courts seamlessly, winning the title at the ATP 500 event at Queen's Club to arrive at Wimbledon, which starts Monday, as the two-time defending champion that is the bookmaker's favourite to complete a treble.
The same cannot quite be said about Jannik Sinner.
The defeat to Alcaraz in Paris, when he held three championship points, still rankles. It played on his mind as he slumped to what was only his fourth defeat since August last year, against the World No. 45 Alexander Bublik, at the Halle Open last week. The best, most dominant player in the world he may be, but a chink in his armour has been exposed by his biggest rival. Add to that the ignominy of having to serve a recent doping ban and that's plenty to play on a young man's mind.
While Alcaraz and Sinner are not the only hopefuls at the Championships this month – the wily eight-time former champion Novak Djokovic and the fourth-seeded home favourite Jack Draper being the two main forces of opposition – it is hard not to make the focus of the entire men's draw at Wimbledon around the top two seeds.
Sinner is level-headed, methodical and consistent but has shown signs of one-dimensionality. Alcaraz is charismatic, flashy and spontaneous but has shown signs of fragility even against opponents that are not of his calibre. The eye will be drawn magnetically to the two players as they march through the draw and attempt to set up yet another final showdown against one another.
One can get insights into what transfers Alcaraz's natural clay strengths, and what makes him such a formidable presence at Wimbledon, from the comments of eight-time Major winner Andre Agassi.
While on broadcast for the French Open earlier this month, Agassi said: 'Alcaraz's best surface to me, shockingly, would be between here and Wimbledon … I would say grass. Reason I would say grass has nothing to do with his swings. It has to do with the less diminishing speed that happens to him versus other players.'
'When he gets out there on the grass and then you bring in that UFO movement stuff, I mean, his second step is ridiculous and he believes in it so much he doesn't peel out defensively when you push him into corners,' he added.
Agassi's comments stand to reason. Unlike other natural clay courters that have a preference to hit the ball high and deep, Alcaraz hits the ball flatter through the air and therefore feels no need to adjust to the low-bouncing grass. The balls still come right into his strike zone. His natural movement does not deter either. Again, unlike those that play mostly on the crushed brick, he does not merely slide into his shots to create angles, but he can make those instant adjustments and take those small steps on the skidding grass to open up the court for himself.
Add to that elements of Alcaraz's playing style that already suit grass. He is adept at mixing in serve and volley, has the best disguised drop shot on tour, can play a good backhand slice, and after ramming big forehands, he likes to finish off points at the net. The sum of these parts creates, perhaps unexpectedly, a tour-leading grass courter.
One of the defining losses of Sinner's career – before he became the match-winning machine he has been for the last 18 months – came back in 2022 at Wimbledon. After expertly blowing past Djokovic to create a two-set lead in their quarterfinal, he slumped to a defeat quite meekly. The immediate impression was that a mental fragility had been exposed, but later analysis proved that the Serb was able to slowly wear him down because he simply figured out Sinner's game plan – which, while effective, he does not move away from much.
Darren Cahill, Sinner's coach, revealed as much while speaking on Andy Roddick's podcast recently. 'Novak got used to his ball, got used to the shape, got used to the pace and then just locked in, like Novak does, and doesn't miss. And won the last three sets reasonably easily,' he said.
When he approached the Serb for feedback on the match, Djokovic would reply: 'Hits the ball great, but there's no variation. So you know, there's no shape on his shot. There's no height over the net. Doesn't come to the net. He's not trying to bring me in, I know that he returns well, but he's not attacking my serve on the return of serve.'
In the three years since, there have been marked changes in Sinner's game, and while he has made huge improvements (especially on return of serve), the 'no variation' tag still persists. It explains his recent struggles against the spontaneous spark of Alcaraz (he has lost each of their last five match) and why, for the Italian – a natural hard courter – the shift to grass may be the biggest adjustment.
Not just in movement or groundstrokes, but mindset. Attacking variety is the most useful tool on this surface and while the concept of mixing his game up is not alien to Sinner, the execution is often muddled. He approaches the net but without much conviction, he hits the drop shot only at the perfect moments, he throws in the slice only as a rally shot, and he hardly veers from pre-planned serving strategy, never just throwing in a body or a kick serve to surprise an opponent.
A little bit of variety will go a long way for the hard-hitting Italian, whose sublime baseline game remains the best in the world, decisively superior than that of even Alcaraz.
And his rival is not perfect either, Alcaraz's weaker serve – there have been recent improvements, he hit as many as 18 aces in the Queens final – can be targeted and his tendency to let his focus fall in long matches will always create opportunities.
The excitement around this burgeoning rivalry is not just created by the sky-high talents of the two young players, but also that, presently, they are working through their faults too. The expectations for these two to face off will once again fill the air during the most vaunted fortnight of the tennis calendar starting Monday.