Here's the State of the 2026 Oscar Race
Yes, I realize the 98th Academy Awards are over nine months away, and a lot can and will change between now and then—but, revisit the nominees for the 2025 ceremony, and you'll remember just how pivotal Cannes can be. Last year's Palme d'Or winner, Anora, went on to secure the best-picture statuette, and two of its nine fellow nominees in the top category, Emilia Pérez and The Substance, also premiered at the festival. In best director, three of the five nominees debuted their film at Cannes (including Sean Baker, who won), and of the 20 acting nominees, over a third walked the Croisette before they landed on the Oscars red carpet. Two of them, Anora's Mikey Madison and Emilia Pérez's Zoe Saldaña, left with two of the four acting prizes on offer. It's a truly staggering showing for a single festival, especially considering how early it falls in the awards season calendar.
It's difficult to imagine this year's Cannes cohort—which includes many quieter, more contemplative films compared to the hoopla of Anora, The Apprentice, Emilia Pérez, and The Substance—having quite the same impact on the Oscar race, but still, there are plenty of releases that could very well dominate across the board, from best picture and the writing and directing line-ups to the highly competitive acting races.
Below, a rundown of the releases currently surging, as well as those which have faced setbacks following a more muted Cannes debut than expected.
It Was Just an Accident's Palme d'Or win could take it into the best-picture line-up
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