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Explained: Why the Texas floods were so catastrophic
Volunteers search for missing people along the banks of the Guadalupe River after recent flooding. AP
Catastrophic flash floods hit Texas on Friday (July 4) amid Independence Day celebrations. Nearly 104 people have died while hundreds of others are missing as the deluge struck a children's summer camp and other holiday spots. Search operations are now underway amid predictions for more rain in the coming days.
The floods were unprecedented. A month's rainfall was received in just a few hours, causing the Guadalupe River to burst its banks. But what was the reason for such torrential rain?
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What caused the flash floods?
The National Weather Service (NWS) has termed flash flooding as a rapid and extreme flow of high water into a normally dry area, which was witnessed on July 4. It mainly occurs when the water level of a stream rises rapidly above the preset flood levels. In the case of the Texas floods, the area was in the middle of a drought, which worsened the situation, reported Associated Press.
People climb over debris on a bridge atop the Guadalupe River after a flash flood swept through the area. AP
Hatim Sharif, a hydrologist at the University of Texas at San Antonio, noted that Texas's Hill Country sits in an area known as 'Flash Flood Alley'. The ascent of warm Gulf air along the Balcones Escarpment, a formidable arc of steep hills and cliffs southwest of Dallas, leads to rapid cooling and intense downpours. These heavy rains quickly wash away the shallow soil, exposing the bedrock beneath. 'Water will rise very, very quickly, within minutes or a few hours,' Sharif told AFP.
This was proved in the early hours of July 4. Around 3:00 am, a gauge near Camp Mystic in Hunt showed the Guadalupe River rising nearly a foot (30 centimetres) every five minutes; by 4:30 am, the river had surged more than 20 feet, National Weather Service data show. That's enough water to sweep away people, vehicles and buildings.
An urgent NWS warning went out shortly after 1 am, but most campers were asleep; phones are banned, coverage is patchy, and darkness makes escape routes hard to judge.
Sharif urges the use of hydrologic forecasts that convert rainfall into likely river levels. 'Rainfall needs to be translated into runoff,' he said. 'If you have 10 inches, what will happen?'
Summer camps have long been drawn to the region for its natural beauty. But with increasing risks, Sharif warns that treating these sites as safe or permanent is unwise.
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Is climate change to blame?
Climate change has come up once again in conversations after the floods. According to a new analysis by ClimaMeter, the extreme meteorological conditions preceding the floods, delivering more than double the typical monthly rainfall in just one day, suggest a cause beyond natural climate fluctuations.
'Climate change is already affecting us, so we need to adapt,' said Mireia Ginesta, a climate scientist at the University of Oxford, who co-authored the research, which is funded by the European Union and the French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS). 'We also need to cut our emissions, and make sure that proper funding is provided to the forecast services and research in general on climate change.'
Marissa Zachry, a rescue worker, takes a moment while searching for survivors along the Guadalupe River on Sunday, July 6, 2025, in Hunt, Texas. AP
The call comes as the National Weather Service, like other agencies, has experienced deep staffing cuts under President Donald Trump's administration.
Experts stress, however, that NWS forecasters performed admirably under the circumstances. The real failure, wrote climate scientist Daniel Swain on Bluesky, 'was not a bad weather prediction, it was one of 'last mile' forecast/warning dissemination.'
Was there a warning system in place?
According to USA TODAY, the NWS issued flash flood alerts just after 1 am and 4 am, but since most people near the river were asleep, they missed it altogether.
A 'flood watch' was issued July 3 with the weather agency stating that there was a 'slight risk' of flash flooding. But there was nothing indicating catastrophic floods like what took place in the early morning hours of July 4, the report said.
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For years, commissioners in Kerr County, where the camps lie, considered flood sirens and digital alerts to replace the informal practice of summer camp staff getting on the radio and warning fellow camps.
Minutes from a 2016 meeting show officials labelling even a feasibility study 'a little extravagant,' suggesting sirens would mainly help tourists, and vouching for the word-of-mouth system.
'The thought of our beautiful Kerr County having these damn sirens going off in the middle of night, I'm going to have to start drinking again to put up with y'all,' Commissioner HA Buster Baldwin said in a transcript.
The debate rolled on. Residents during meetings in 2021 expressed strident opposition toward relying on federal funds tied to the Biden administration.
After the disaster, San Antonio mother Nicole Wilson, who almost sent her daughters to Camp Mystic, launched a petition on Change.org urging Governor Greg Abbott to approve a modern warning network. 'Five minutes of that siren going off could have saved every single one of those children,' she told AFP.
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Business Standard
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- Business Standard
Texas inspectors cleared Camp Mystic's disaster plan 2 days before flood
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an hour ago
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Hunt: More than 160 people remain unaccounted for after devastating floods in Texas, the state governor said Tuesday, marking a dramatic increase in the number of missing from a tragedy that has so far claimed 109 lives. Four days after flash floods roared through several Texas counties, some in the middle of the night, hopes of finding survivors were fading -- and Governor Greg Abbott warned that the list of those unaccounted for could yet rise. "Just in the Kerr County area alone, there are 161 people who are known to be missing," he told reporters Tuesday as the grim search continued. "There very likely could be more added to that list," he said, adding that the figure was based on people reported as unaccounted for by friends, relatives and neighbors. Kerr County, part of a central Texas region known as "Flash Flood Alley," suffered the most damage, with at least 94 fatalities. Live Events That includes at least 27 girls and counselors who were staying at a youth summer camp on the Guadalupe River when it burst its banks as the Fourth of July holiday began in the early hours of Friday. Torrents of water swept through the camp, scouring cabins as hundreds of people slept. Five campers and one counselor were still missing as of Tuesday evening, according to Abbot, as well as another child not associated with the camp. "There's nothing more important in our hearts and minds than the people of this community, especially those who are still lost," Abbot said. Elsewhere in the state, there have been at least 15 fatalities recorded so far, the governor added. Ben Baker with the Texas Game Wardens said search and rescue efforts involving helicopters, drones and dogs were extremely difficult because of the water and mud. "When we're trying to make these recoveries, these large piles can be very obstructive, and to get in deep into these piles, it's very hazardous," Baker said. "It's extremely treacherous, time-consuming. It's dirty work, the water is still there." The US National Weather Service on Tuesday declared a flash flood emergency in Ruidoso, a small town 184 miles (296 kilometers) south of Albuquerque, in the neighboring state of New Mexico. Officials reported several people were trapped by sudden floodwaters, with multiple homes sustaining damage. The NWS said the Rio Ruidoso may have crested more than 20 feet (six meters). Rain 'won't deter' search In the town of Hunt, the epicenter of the disaster, an AFP team saw recovery workers combing through piles of debris with helicopters flying overhead. Javier Torres, 24, was digging through mud as he searched for the body of his grandmother, after having located the remains of his grandfather. He also discovered the bodies of two children, apparently washed up by the river. Officials warned of more heavy rain ahead that could affect the search -- though Baker said it "won't deter" the efforts. President Donald Trump is due to visit Texas with First Lady Melania Trump on Friday. "We brought in a lot of helicopters from all over... They were real pros, and they were responsible for pulling out a lot of people," Trump said. Meanwhile, questions intensified over whether Trump's government funding cuts had weakened warning systems, and over the handling of the rescue operation. During an at-times tense news conference, Baker skirted a question on the speed of the emergency response. "Right now, this team up here is focused on bringing people home," he said. Shel Winkley, a weather expert at the Climate Central research group, blamed the extent of the disaster on geography and exceptional drought, when dry soil absorbs less rainfall. "This part of Texas, at least in the Kerr County flood specifically, was in an extreme to exceptional drought... We know that since May, temperatures have been above average," Winkley told reporters. The organization's media director, Tom Di Liberto, said staffing shortages at the National Weather Service had contributed to the disaster. "You can't necessarily replace that experience," he said.
