Lipstick sales soar and men's underwear slumps: Behind the TikTok craze for recession indicators
Quirky indicators of where the economy may be going are popular on social media. While it may be tempting to dismiss them, these ideas can have tangible effects on how people choose to spend, money experts tell John Meagher
Last month, an English TikTok content creator – known mononymously as Yasmin – posted a video on the platform, titled 'My Recession Indicators'.
The twentysomething listed several indicators that made her believe a recession is imminent.
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Irish Independent
3 hours ago
- Irish Independent
Ambassador Martin Fraser's residence in London costs taxpayer €43,500 a month
The department confirmed it paid estate agency Knight Frank €522,394 in 2024 to cover just a single-year lease on the English property, which is home to ambassador Martin Fraser. The colossal bill was part of at least €3.95m paid out last year in rental costs for residences for senior Irish diplomats across the globe. Other lease costs included payments of €485,000 for the official residence in Tokyo, €291,000 for an apartment in New York and €204,000 in payments in San Francisco. The rental bill in Tel Aviv was almost €200,000, it was around €176,000 in Boston, and €135,000 in Seoul in South Korea. The department also ran up 15 separate hotel and accommodation bills in excess of €5,000 last year, according to figures released under FOI laws. This included €30,480 at the five-star Intercontinental Hotel in Dublin 4 to host a delegation during the state visit by the president of Vietnam last October. There was a bill of €9,300 from the same hotel for a visit by the Egyptian president in December while €5,241 was paid for accommodation at the Seven Alpina Hotel as part of Ireland's participation in the annual World Economic Forum in Davos. The department said an €8,408 bill at the four-star Fifty Sonesta Hotel in New York was for a staff member taking up a new diplomatic posting. Among other bills last year were €24,054 paid to the Dublin Airport Authority for platinum services for visiting dignitaries. The Department of Foreign Affairs said this covered three separate delegations from Vietnam, South Africa and China. To offset the carbon emissions of globe-trotting diplomatic staff, a sum of €99,623 was paid to the Government's climate action fund. The department said these payments are government policy since 2020 and that the fund was used to support climate-related projects and initiatives in Ireland. A total of €97,000 was paid in legal 'settlement costs' at the Passport Office, a database of departmental expenditure for 2024 showed. However, the department was tight-lipped on what was involved and said that 'further details can't be released on confidentiality grounds.' ADVERTISEMENT Learn more Other bills from last year included €62,418 to SOS International Assistance, a UK-based company who provides health and security services. The department said this included medical and security advice, digital risk mitigation, training and personal safety. A furniture removal bill of €26,019 was incurred last December, which covered the cost of bringing art back to the National Gallery and the Office of Public Works from the continent. The department said: 'Pieces from Berlin and pieces from Stockholm were transported and returned to Ireland. 'The artworks on display in our mission properties are key promotional tools, helping us to promote Irish culture, values and heritage.' The art transport bill was part of at least €900,000 that was spent on removal and storage costs for staff packing up and moving to missions across the world. Other costs for the department included €4.65m for passport booklets and €8.6m for postage and courier costs. Around €64,000 was spent on chauffeured cars, €11,600 for a BMW vehicle in Washington DC and €43,000 for 'items of artistic value'. There was €3.7m worth of invoices for major maintenance on residences overseas, including redecoration and construction. Asked about the high rental bill for the London residence, the Department of Foreign Affairs said the property had been chosen following a market assessment process. On hotel and other VIP costs, it said: 'We are responsible for the effective management of incoming visits by heads of state and government and other high-level foreign dignitaries to Ireland. 'These visits advance Ireland's values and interests, unlock opportunities, strengthen bilateral and multilateral relationships and position Ireland as a proactive and influential global partner.'
Irish Independent
a day ago
- Irish Independent
Lipstick sales soar and men's underwear slumps: Behind the TikTok craze for recession indicators
Quirky indicators of where the economy may be going are popular on social media. While it may be tempting to dismiss them, these ideas can have tangible effects on how people choose to spend, money experts tell John Meagher Last month, an English TikTok content creator – known mononymously as Yasmin – posted a video on the platform, titled 'My Recession Indicators'. The twentysomething listed several indicators that made her believe a recession is imminent.
Irish Examiner
a day ago
- Irish Examiner
Why a cup of coffee is rising in price and where to get the best one for your money
It appears we are now a nation of fully-fledged coffee drinkers. Recent studies show over 75% of adults drink an average of three cups daily, with many believing the cup of Joe has taken over from tea as the country's favourite brew. A swift daytime perambulation of any urban high street reveals coffee shops on every corner, takeaway cups in myriad passing hands. From a hospitality perspective, coffee consistently outsells what was once the national beverage of choice. Statistics can be malleable, anecdotal evidence more so, but facts win arguments and it is very hard to get past the fact that there are now over 200 independent coffee roasters in a country where just 20 years ago, most coffee drinkers got their fix from a jar of instant and the tea cosy still reigned supreme. Three years ago, coffee website Brew Smartly rated Dublin the second most 'coffee obsessed capital city in the world', just after Amsterdam. An undeniable Irish coffee culture is continuing to grow. 'Coffee isn't a new thing in Ireland any more,' says Julie Murray, head of coffee culture, at Bewley's, Ireland's largest commercial roaster. 'We have a sophisticated palate, even on global terms, we show up very well in terms of coffee quality, not all this mass commercialism, dark roast. Much like tea. For example, we drink better tea than the English.' 'The rise of coffee in Ireland has a lot to do with people like myself living overseas and bringing a coffee culture back,' says Fixx founder Anne Abberton. 'The rise of coffee in Ireland has a lot to do with people like myself living overseas and bringing a coffee culture back,' says Fixx founder Anne Abberton. 'Also, the non-Irish population, visitors, tourists — they like to socialise in cafes. When we had the Dawson St cafe, from 6pm to 9pm, it was always full of non-Irish socialising. 'Also, coffee is no longer seen as a vice, no cigarette in one hand, coffee in the other. There is even a health and wellness aspect now to drinking it and decaf is becoming very popular, especially for drinking and driving.' The pandemic greatly accelerated coffee's position as a social fulcrum. With pubs closed, that traditional meeting over a pint was supplanted by the takeaway coffee outdoors, especially with social distancing, and coffee trucks popped open all over the country. The pandemic greatly accelerated coffee's position as a social fulcrum. With pubs closed, that traditional meeting over a pint was supplanted by the takeaway coffee outdoors, especially with social distancing, and coffee trucks popped open all over the country. During the surreal and somnambulant days of early covid, Corkonians in the suburbs of Blackrock and Ballintemple felt especially blessed to have the wonderful riverside Marina walk within their 2km limit, on this section of what is usually the busiest greenway in the country. Better still, days into the first lockdown, Cortado, a little coffee truck began trading at one end and was an instant success. As restrictions relaxed and lifted, its popularity endured, and Cortado has moved mere metres to a more durable premises, a collaborative effort between Cork City Council and Cortado owner/operator Alan Cashman resulting in a delightful coffee 'hut' and weather-proofed seating area, now one of the busiest coffee outlets in Cork. 'Coffee drinking has become a very important social aspect in Irish culture, absolutely, a meeting point and social element in our lives,' says Cortado founder Alan Cashman. 'Especially what we've created at Cortado. It's not work, it's not home, it's that definitive third space that people need. Irish people of all generations want to meet up and chat.' But what happens if the coffee runs out? Coffee beans are the seeds of the Coffea plant grown in a geographical band that encircles the world around the equator. Coffea arabica, between 60% to 80% of beans grown globally, is generally preferred for freshly ground coffee, while Coffea canephora ('robusta', 20% to 40% of global production), is mostly used to produce instant. THE RISING COST However, that same belt is ground zero for the worst impacts of climate change. Over the last five years, Brazil, the world's largest coffee producing country (almost 40% of global production), has endured devastating frosts, extreme winds, cyclones, and drought. The 2024 robusta crop was down 35% while arabica was down 20%, the fourth consecutive small harvest with yet another anticipated this year. Vietnam, the world's biggest robusta producer, has also taken a hammering because of drought, with last year's harvest down 20% and another poor one predicted this year. Cloud Picker head roaster James O'Leary. 'Demand is getting further and further away from supply,' says Cloud Picker head roaster James O'Leary. 'We buy fresh crop but when you get down into the lower end of the market, the 'reserve', the world-wide supply of beans is getting lower and lower.' As one of the world's most valuable and widely traded food commodities, beans used for large scale coffee production are sold on the C Market. It has seen record highs in recent years, up to 70% price rises in 2024, and up 25% so far this year alone, extreme volatility now the only certainty when it comes buying beans. The higher-end specialty coffee end of the market is less prone to these manic price swings as specialty importers/roasters tend to source directly from the farmer producers, paying more for premium beans but able to build relationships and negotiate future purchasing commitments that provide a greater stability to their supply. However, such has been the impact of declining harvests, all bets are off even for the specialty market. 'The specialty market we operate in is designed to be a little bit insulated from the fluctuations,' says O'Leary. 'But that insulation has almost completely broken down. Robusta consumers have taken to buying arabica.' Other than the extraordinary rise in prices for beans, the cost of doing business in general has spiralled. 'Logistics, packaging, containers, transportation, labels, printing, all the other costs went through the roof during covid,' says Abberton. 'I got hit with a 30% increase on milk price last October out of nowhere,' says Cashman. 'I got a phone call from Glanbia to tell me take it or leave it. All our staff were being paid above minimum wage but the increase hit us hard — although we are happy to pay it.' The rise in the cost of doing business generally is universal but can anything be done to address the volatility in the coffee market? 'We had been working with [Brazilian speciality coffee exporter] Daterra Brazil for many years and that has helped insulate us from the climate change shock,' says Cloud Picker co-founder Peter Sztal. 'There was such a shortage, they decided to stop taking on new customers.' 'We are going to try and establish more direct from farm sourcing,' says Cashman. 'I have a great exporter but in the next 12 months I want to establish more direct relationships, build more resilience in my purchasing at that end.' 'I pay two or three times the C market prices for coffee,' says Tony Speight of West Cork Coffee. 'I pay two or three times the C market prices for coffee,' says Tony Speight of West Cork Coffee. 'I have certain suppliers since 2016, we have a good relationship and meet halfway on a fair price. If I can keep my quality high and keep our key difference, providing exclusive and different bespoke single origin coffees for each outlet I sell to, I'm hoping the quality will keep customers happy. 'I also leased another larger warehouse to buy in bulk to get a better price.' BUILDING EQUITY The global coffee sector is currently worth over $200bn, forecast to reach $244bn by 2027, yet many primary producers, the coffee farmers themselves, still struggle to make a basic living. Any modern coffee business worth its salt will factor sustainability and economic and social justice into their thinking — after all, without coffee and coffee farmers, there is no business. 'We carried out research and one question was would you pay more for sustainable coffee — 8% of 1,000 respondents said yes,' says Abberton. 'We have to change that 92% because if the sustainable isn't addressed, we'll have no coffee at all. Trying to get that message through is tricky.' Cloud Picker has always worn its social conscience on its sleeve and recently became B Corp certified: 'For us it's part of doing good business,' says Sztal, 'so we know what's 'right' and what's 'wrong'. One thing I found personally very shocking and impactful was that 92% of emissions from all our products are for the product to land on the shelves and only 8% from our operation here in Dublin. You need guidance sometimes on the right choices. Our supplier, Daterra, is at the forefront of sustainability in the coffee world.' 'I have worked directly with farms since day one,' says Speight. 'They have the security of knowing I will buy so many pallets each year, giving them the confidence that they have a buyer. It's a good feeling buying from the same farm year in year out.' 'Coffee is undervalued for the amount of work that goes into it, and has been for a long long time,' says Tony Speight. Where once we sang about 'all the tea in China', it too is rapidly converting to the way of the bean, becoming a coffee drinking nation. In addition, in an age where pre-teens guzzle caffeinated energy drinks with nary an eyebrow raised, the age profile of coffee drinkers is plunging. 'Gen Z and young people, from 13 to 27, are informing a lot of the future of the direction that we are going,' says Murray. 'And that future is 'cold'. We have a new-to-market cold brew concentrate, coffee extracted without high water temp and without high pressure, 60% less bitter, less acidic than espresso, served chilled over ice. 'It was 18 months in development, comes in a bag in box, and we use a shot of that poured into the milk and ice for an iced latte — the hashtag, #icelatte, has over six billion views and it's all about how it looks online. Cold milk and cold foam are big as well. There are no rules any more, customisation is where it's at, so if you want to have it with pistachio syrup and a mango cold foam. It's a treat beverage, not as consciously drunk for the caffeine hit.' What will increased demand and ever dwindling supplies mean for the cost of your beloved flat white? 'Coffee is undervalued for the amount of work that goes into it, and has been for a long long time,' says Speight. 'Climate change is forcing a correction. Wine is valued on the quality of the product, the harvest — coffee should be too.' PRESSING MATTERS WITH IRELAND'S COFFEE MAKERS Anne Abberton, founder of Fixx Coffee Anne Abberton, founder, in 2007, of Fixx Coffee: Specialty coffee, Business-to-business, 60% of sales to 'places that pour', cafés etc; 25% to independent retailers; 15% online My coffee epiphany: working and living in Lisbon in my early 20s, in a no frills café, an espresso or bica, I can still remember it, smooth, intense, perfectly balanced, and just the right temperature. I'd never tasted coffee like that before. I was completely hooked. working and living in Lisbon in my early 20s, in a no frills café, an espresso or bica, I can still remember it, smooth, intense, perfectly balanced, and just the right temperature. I'd never tasted coffee like that before. I was completely hooked. Favourite way to drink coffee: Filter, black; a really good espresso after a meal; sometimes a flat white Filter, black; a really good espresso after a meal; sometimes a flat white How many coffees a day: 3 Julie Murray, head of coffee culture, Bewley's Julie Murray, Head of Coffee Culture, Bewley's Bewley's is Ireland's largest coffee Roastery, one of the largest in Ireland and Britain and the UK, supply upwards of 4,000 food service customers including hotels, restaurants, cafés, service stations, workplaces, etc. My coffee epiphany: When I was late teenager, exam times, a needs-basis When I was late teenager, exam times, a needs-basis Favourite way to drink coffee: a good cup of freshly ground, freshly brewed filter coffee a good cup of freshly ground, freshly brewed filter coffee How many coffees a day: Definitely two, maybe three; cut off point is generally by about 4pm. Cloud Picker co-founder Peter Sztal Peter Sztal, co-founder (with Frank Kavanagh) Cloud Picker, in 2013 One of Ireland's foremost specialty coffee roasters, Café, Pearse St, Dublin; Roastery and take away 'factory shop', Crumlin, Dublin; three franchised Cloud Picker cafes, Dublin airport. My coffee epiphany: Top of the mountain at a small coffee farm on the border of Myanmar and Thailand. Not the best cup of coffee but it made us think how coffee isn't just a commodity, it can change lives, create stories, make people happy. It's where the name Cloud Picker came from: we had to go through the clouds to see the coffee pickers. Top of the mountain at a small coffee farm on the border of Myanmar and Thailand. Not the best cup of coffee but it made us think how coffee isn't just a commodity, it can change lives, create stories, make people happy. It's where the name Cloud Picker came from: we had to go through the clouds to see the coffee pickers. Favourite way to drink coffee: Filter V60, all the way Filter V60, all the way How many coffees a day: between seven and 10. Tony Speight of West Cork Coffee Tony Speight, owner/operator, West Cork Coffee, founded in 2015 Single origin specialty coffee roastery selling to 50+ outlets/cafés/restaurants, creating individual bespoke blends for each outlet, including Michelin-starred Restaurant Chestnut and Michelin two-starred Dede at the Custom House. WCC Brew Bar, in Bandon. My coffee epiphany: in New York on a J1 Visa, and drinking French press coffee with opera cake in the Gingerbread House, in Cork, as a student — I thought I was living! in New York on a J1 Visa, and drinking French press coffee with opera cake in the Gingerbread House, in Cork, as a student — I thought I was living! Favourite way to drink coffee: V60 or Kalita, it's a flat bed filter brewer V60 or Kalita, it's a flat bed filter brewer How many coffees a day: I try to keep it below five if I can, between three and five, my last is usually around 3pm. Alan Cashman of Cortado Alan Cashman, owner/operator, Cortado, founded 2019 Two outlets: Marina, Cork, and coffee truck, in Ballinlough, Cork My coffee epiphany: working in Gibralter for a year in 1999, when I first started having coffee, from a small local roaster working in Gibralter for a year in 1999, when I first started having coffee, from a small local roaster Favourite way to drink coffee: Either a cortado or a V60 Either a cortado or a V60 How many coffees a day: About five, up to 6pm, 7pm
