Is the cost-of-living crisis over? Victoria's new treasurer is optimistic, but housing remains a battleground

The Guardian

01-06-2025

Victoria's new treasurer, Jaclyn Symes, is confident cost-of-living pressures will ease by the next election – and that voters will be less concerned about the state's soaring debt once they see the completed projects it has helped fund.
In an exclusive interview with Guardian Australia after handing down her first budget in May, Symes also signalled openness to reforming stamp duty.
But she hit back at industry groups like the Property Council, calling on them to move beyond criticising current policies and offer solutions: 'Saying, 'Don't do this,' that doesn't particularly help me. I have a policy brain, I like to find problems and fix them.'
The upper house leader made history in becoming Victoria's first female treasurer after she was handpicked by the premier, Jacinta Allan, to take over from retiring Tim Pallas in December.
Symes inherited a mountain of debt, and the recent budget forecasts it to climb even higher, to $194bn in 2028-29. That's up from just $21.8bn before Labor took office in 2014, after years of rapid public sector growth, major infrastructure spending, the pandemic and subsequent credit rating downgrades.
Symes's first budget was sold as a turning point, delivering a $600m operating surplus and a slight drop in net debt relative to the state's economy.
It also included unexpected federal windfalls, which Symes defended using to ease cost-of-living pressures – pointing to $18m for food relief as one of her proudest budget items.
'People have asked, 'Couldn't you have had a higher surplus?' Sure. But it wouldn't have felt very good knowing we're not supporting some of those services that people doing it really tough are relying on,' Symes says.
Looking ahead to 2026 – the year of the next state election – Symes is optimistic that the cost-of-living crisis that has engulfed Australia will have eased. She says interest rates are coming down, housing supply is growing and, for the first time in years, wages are forecast to outpace inflation.
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'All the signs are there. But if we go too early and abandon the people that are still struggling, then I wouldn't feel very proud about that,' she says.
She hopes that people will soon be 'feeling more confident and not worrying about the cost of every meal that's going on the table'.
'That's what you want for all Victorians, but that's not the case right now'.
Symes also believes that state debt won't dominate the election debate, and that voters will instead be grateful for the infrastructure it's funded, including the Metro Tunnel and West Gate Tunnel, both set to open this year after huge cost overruns.
Symes points to Sydney's $21.6bn Metro, which also ran billions over budget but is now popular with voters: 'The day it opened, people were like, 'Oh, actually, this is a worthwhile investment.''
The budget also brought pain for some, with 1,200 public sector jobs set to go, with the treasurer warning more job losses are likely once the government receives the recommendations of a review, a move Symes defends as tough but necessary.
'Do I want people to lose their jobs? No. But I also have a responsibility as treasurer to make sure that we are being cost-effective,' she says.
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At parliament last week, it became clear housing will be a key battleground at the next election.
While the premier pledged to get 'millennials into homes' through planning reform and an extension of stamp duty concessions for new apartments, units and townhouses, the opposition announced a revived 2022 policy to abolish stamp duty for first home buyers on properties worth up to $1m.
The shadow treasurer, James Newbury, says it would give 'young Victorians the final leg up they need', but Symes is sceptical, questioning both the opposition's costings and the policy's failure to increase housing supply.
Stamp duty remains a huge revenue source for the state – forecast to bring in $11bn in 2028-29. But it's loathed by homebuyers and economists.
The Grattan Institute's Brendan Coates calls it 'the worst tax in Australia', as it locks people into their homes, discourages downsizing and acts as a 'tax on divorce' – as separating couples will both have to go on to pay it. Many economists have long called for it to be replaced with a broad-based land tax.
Asked if she would consider such a move, Symes leaves the door open: 'I'm always open to having discussions about tax reform. I've got the finances to manage so I can't make reckless announcements.'
Last week, Symes addressed a post-budget Property Council breakfast, where she faced a tough crowd. Before she took the stage, Lendlease's Adam Williams warned that property taxes would soon make up 47% of the state's total tax revenue. In the Q&A segment, a member of the crowd said tax on foreign investment was 'killing' developers.
Symes tried a joke: 'Let's have a show of hands – what's the worst tax? What's your favourite tax?' It fell flat. Newbury called her 'tone deaf' and 'out of touch' and criticised her for previously describing the role of treasurer as 'fun'.
But Symes says she's not fazed by criticism, and that she's been underestimated before: told she couldn't be agriculture minister because she wore wedges to a farm and dismissed as attorney general for 'giggling like a schoolgirl'.
'The commentary that actually affects me more than anything else is the young women, particularly high school girls, who say, 'We have a female treasurer. That's so cool.''