The Limits of the New Anti-Western Axis
As a result of Israel's military offensive, Iran's nuclear program has been set back substantially. And, following months of strategic drift in Gaza, the Jewish state's decisive campaign against the Islamic Republic has helped it rebuild regional deterrence. The United States, meanwhile, has finally demonstrated that it is committed to preventing Iran from going nuclear by any means necessary. The region is taking notice; for instance, prospects for an expansion of the Abraham Accords are now the brightest they have been in years.
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran on Nov. 23, 2015.
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran on Nov. 23, 2015.
ALEXEI DRUZHININ/SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images
But the conflict that's already being billed by the White House as the "12-day war" is also notable for what didn't happen. Despite the dire predictions of many, Israel's campaign against Iran's nuclear program (and America's assistance to it) didn't lead either Russia or the People's Republic of China (PRC) to wade into the fray in defense of the Islamic Republic, generating a wider war.
To be sure, both Moscow and Beijing offered up the proper platitudes. Russian President Vladimir Putin decried Israel's bombing campaign, and his Foreign Ministry issued a formal statement condemning it. Officials in Beijing did much the same, with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi mounting a spirited defense of Iran's "sovereignty" in the face of Israel's "illegal" bombings.
Beyond that, however, neither Beijing nor Moscow did anything of substance. Russia did not provide Iran with key battlefield technology, such as air defense components, that could have been used to blunt the effectiveness of Israel's air campaign. Similarly, China did not roll out its prodigious electronic warfare capabilities to better protect Tehran, despite the sprawling quarter century, $400 billion strategic pact codified between the two countries back in 2021.
The decision of both countries to sit out the conflict tells us a great deal about the extent of their trilateral partnership with Iran. That's notable, because their anti-Western alliance has seemed positively robust up to now.
Ukraine provides a case in point. Over the past two years, Iran has given Russia key drone technology and other battlefield materiel that the Kremlin has used to devastating effect against Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. China, meanwhile, has provided extensive support to Russia's defense industry as part of the "no limits" partnership between the two countries, making it a "decisive enabler" of Moscow's ongoing aggression against its western neighbor.
They have worked together in other ways as well. Moscow, Tehran, and Beijing have coordinated under the auspices of forums like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Moscow- and Beijing-run security bloc designed to shape security affairs in Eurasia. All three have worked closely in the field of information warfare, parroting each other's false narratives on everything from COVID-19 to Western imperialism. And all of them have worked diligently to deepen their military ties, culminating in trilateral naval exercises in the Gulf of Oman earlier this year.
In the process, this collaboration has raised worries that a new strategic axis is now working to remake the world order in an anti-Western, authoritarian direction. The recent conflict over Iran's nuclear program, though, tells a somewhat different story.
But why, precisely? The explanations have varied.
Some experts, like the Washington Institute's Anna Borshchevskaya, have noted that Moscow benefits when international attention is diverted, thereby giving it greater freedom of action in its own geopolitical neighborhood—most immediately, against Ukraine. The same logic undoubtedly also holds true for the PRC, which harbors clear—and growing—desires over Taiwan.
Or maybe it's because, as Zineb Riboua of the Hudson Institute has pointed out, a weakened Islamic Republic is of limited utility to Moscow and Beijing. After all, now that the Iranian regime's military leadership has been decimated and its regional position profoundly eroded, courtesy of Israel, Tehran is far less useful as a strategic partner. As a result, both countries seem to have thought better of getting involved in something that was, quintessentially, Iran's fight.
Whatever the reasons, the most recent Mideast war has succeeded in laying bare the limits of today's emerging axis of authoritarians. It's now up to the United States and its international partners to exploit those shortcomings.
Ilan Berman is senior vice president of the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, D.C.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
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Atlantic
21 minutes ago
- Atlantic
Flattery, Firmness, and Flourishes
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's April visit to the White House was, by all accounts, a success. She soothed President Donald Trump with dulcet talk of 'Western nationalism,' eased through a potentially awkward moment regarding Ukraine, and invited Trump to visit Rome—extracting a promise that he would come in the 'near future.' Yet despite the apparently seamless choreography, she and her team offered some after-action advice to fellow world leaders hoping for similarly controversy-free exchanges with Trump: Prepare for the unexpected. Specifically, she had been caught off guard when, before a supposedly private lunch in the Cabinet Room, journalists had been escorted in for seven minutes of questions; she found herself awkwardly positioned with her back to the cameras—much of the footage of Meloni captures the silky blond strands atop her head—and she was forced to either ignore the media in order to address Trump directly or twist herself to the left, away from the president, to try to speak with the reporters. Exactly a week later, when Jonas Gahr Støre, the prime minister of Norway, arrived at the White House, he was prepared. His team had watched videos of prior visits with world leaders, and strategized over various scenarios. Having seen Trump seem to bristle when Meloni was asked a question in her native Italian, they encouraged their own press corps to pose their queries exclusively in English. (The Norwegian journalists also seemed to have done their homework; young female reporters positioned themselves near the front, smiling to catch Trump's attention, and got in an early flurry of questions.) 'You have to—to use Trump's words—play the cards you have,' one European diplomat told us anonymously, like nearly every other diplomat or foreign official we spoke with, to avoid angering Trump or revealing their nation's strategies for managing the mercurial U.S. president. Anne Applebaum: The U.S. is switching sides In Trump's second term, foreign leaders now meticulously prepare for their phone calls and meetings with him, often war-gaming possible surprises and entanglements, and trading information and best practices with allies. Eight diplomats and officials from six countries, as well as other foreign-policy experts, all described to us an unofficial formula for ensuring fruitful interactions with Trump: an alchemic mix of flattery, firmness, and personal flourishes. Foreign leaders, especially those from fellow democracies, face an inherent tension in wanting to woo Trump while also advocating for their country's own interests and maintaining their standing back home. 'There is a sense that you want to be on the right side of history. You do want to be able to look at yourself in the mirror and reread your statements in the Oval Office a couple of years later and say, 'I feel good about what I said,'' a second European diplomat told us. This, of course, can prove complicated. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky learned this lesson rather publicly in a now-infamous Oval Office blowup on the last day of February, which got him booted from the White House so quickly that Trump's aides ate the lunch intended for him and his fellow Ukrainians. ('No deal and no meal,' Axios blared at the time.) And in May, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa was meeting with Trump in the Oval when the U.S. president unexpectedly dimmed the lights and began playing a video that he said buttressed his unsupported claim that South Africa's white population is facing a 'genocide.' 'The leaders of friendly countries are turning keys in the lock desperately trying to find a way to prevent their meetings with President Trump from being disasters,' Kori Schake, the director of defense and foreign-policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute and a contributing writer at The Atlantic, told us. 'The challenge for foreign leaders is that President Trump seems to only have two categories—supplicants and enemies.' But that hasn't stopped visiting officials and diplomats from trying. 'They ask knowledgeable Americans, 'Might this work? This is what we're thinking of trying. Do you think this is good enough?'' Schake told us. Even some of the preparations—walking through the day's expected events in advance of the actual visit—underscore the inherent unpredictability of this administration. 'Our entire walk-through with the White House was like, 'This is what it's going to be like, but we follow the lead of the president,'' the second European diplomat told us, laughing. Trump has long been eager to receive a Nobel Peace Prize—for any conflict, in any region. So it was not entirely surprising when the government of Pakistan nominated Trump for the prize last month for helping resolve tensions between Pakistan and India. Pakistan, after all, was simply following the dependable diplomatic crutch of flattery with Trump, hoping to improve its standing with the U.S. president by offering him the possibility of something he desperately covets. (His subsequent bombing of Iran's nuclear sites created understandable consternation among Pakistanis, but during an Oval Office meeting last week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took up the cause, announcing that he had, too, nominated Trump for the Nobel Prize—this time for his work in the Middle East.) The same week that Pakistan put Trump up for the peace prize, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte engaged in some behind-the-scenes blandishments with Trump ahead of a NATO summit in the Netherlands—which became public when Trump posted on Truth Social the entirety of a text message Rutte had sent him. The missive praised Trump for his 'decisive action in Iran,' which Rutte called 'truly extraordinary,' before moving on to laud Trump for pressuring his NATO allies to spend more on defending their countries. 'You are flying into another big success in The Hague this evening,' Rutte wrote. 'Europe is going to pay in a BIG way, as they should, and it will be your win.' During the actual summit, Rutte went on to call Trump 'Daddy' as Trump likened Israel and Iran to fighting schoolchildren. 'Daddy has to sometimes use strong language,' the NATO chief said. Trump and his team were, predictably, delighted. They began selling 'Daddy' merch —an orange T-shirt with DADDY emblazoned just below Trump's notorious mug-shot scowl—and released a video mash-up of Trump at the summit set to Usher's 'Hey Daddy (Daddy's Home).' The light mockery that suffused their glee was not lost on Rutte's peers. Flattery, after all, must be coupled with firmness, several diplomats explained. Not to mention at least a smidgen of dignity. 'Who isn't a bit embarrassed on his behalf?' one diplomat said of Rutte. A fine line, several diplomats told us, separates routine diplomatic supplication from humiliating obsequiousness; Trump at times seems to respect people who stand up to him. A NATO ambassador told us that Rutte's acclamatory message to Trump wasn't widely workshopped in Brussels ahead of time and that the secretary general is trusted to manage his own relationship with the American president. 'The allies wanted an agile operator, and we've gotten that,' the ambassador said, noting that Trump frequently calls Rutte to consult him. The ambassador added that the more conciliatory approach world leaders are taking with Trump partly reflects standard diplomacy—and partly reflects the Republican standard-bearer's staying power. 'If you went through the first term saying, 'This is an aberration; we just have to get through it,' defiance was a reasonable bet to make,' the ambassador told us. 'Now we've seen him be reelected. At least half of Americans are aligned with his politics. It's not just that he's back. Clearly there's been a shift in America more deeply.' Marc Short, who served as Vice President Mike Pence's chief of staff during Trump's first term, told us the flattery approach 'usually works.' He pointed to the strong relationship between Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron dating back to the early days of the Trump administration, when Macron—understanding the American president's love of pomp and circumstance and, frankly, just a damn good parade—invited him to Paris for Bastille Day. The two disagreed on a host of actual policy matters—the 2015 Iran deal and green energy among them—but 'that was one of the closest relationships of European leaders he had,' Short told us, in part because 'Macron was pretty good at those public communications of flattery.' 'It does seem that it's a little more exaggerated in the second go-round,' he told us. 'Maybe it's just the learning curve, but it seems like it's copied more now.' Still, not everyone is sold on the approach. After the White House paused some weapons transfers to Ukraine, Rutte faced fresh criticism for his fawning comments about Trump. Carlo Masala, an authority on the German military and a professor at the Bundeswehr University in Munich, tagged the NATO secretary general on X and asked, in a mélange of English and German, 'Where ist your Daddy now?' Golf trophies. Monarchy merch. Love letters. As foreign leaders and their allies have engaged in gossipy group shares about how to prepare for a meeting with Trump—or, at the very least, for the love of God and all that is just in the world, prevent it from going totally off the rails—nearly every country has come up with its own similar, yet distinctly homegrown, approach. Finnish President Alexander Stubb, who attended Furman University in South Carolina on a golf scholarship, played a round with Trump early in his return to power, much to the envy of fellow world leaders. (Lindsey Graham, South Carolina's senior senator and a reliable Trump sidekick, helped orchestrate the game, though it probably didn't hurt the transatlantic relationship that Stubb, playing on Trump's team at his Florida golf club's spring member-guest tournament, helped the U.S. president win the championship.) 'That's not an option for all the world leaders,' one European official told us, channeling the wistful desire for a links-blessed leader we heard from other diplomats. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who visited the White House in February, found success by bringing a personal letter from King Charles, inviting Trump for a second state visit—and adopting Trump's grandiose language in calling the possibility of a second such ceremony 'truly historic' and twice labeling it 'unprecedented.' (Trump is expected to visit this fall.) Here, the Brits engaged in a one-two titillation of Trump's diplomatic erogenous zones: his love of monarchies, particularly the British royals, and his passion for epistolary communication. In his first term, Trump waxed lyrical about his 'love letters' with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, and more recently, he relished recounting to Congress a letter Zelensky had sent him following their Oval Office spat. By the time Netanyahu announced his Nobel Peace Prize nomination last week, he was sufficiently savvy to present Trump with the letter he said he had sent to the Nobel Prize committee. 'The president respects good manners, and seems to value letters. He appreciates a slight formality,' a British diplomat told us. 'He clearly assigns a lot of value to, 'I have signed this, I have written this, I have touched this.'' (Indeed, Trump favors Sharpie-scrawled missives himself.) But Starmer's gambit also seemed to work because the offer he bore from King Charles was authentic. There still exists a 'special relationship' between the two countries, the working royals are diplomats by another name, and the British are experts at state visits and the accompanying ceremony. 'We will roll out the red carpet,' the British diplomat told us. 'Americans should expect a full royal display of the formal respect we afford our closest ally.' Or perhaps, as another European suggested to us, Washington's transatlantic partners have merely learned to act a bit like the Gulf states, which welcomed Trump with immense fanfare during his visit to the Middle East in May. The United Arab Emirates awarded Trump the Order of Zayed, the country's highest civil decoration. In Doha, Trump's motorcade included two red Tesla Cybertrucks—a nod to Trump's on-again, off-again billionaire best buddy, Elon Musk. The oil-rich nations also agreed to form business partnerships with Washington or to pump money into American companies. 'Trump is at home in the Gulf because he recognizes their style of family rule,' the diplomat told us. 'The Europeans gave up that method of governance about a century ago, but we know how to put on a show when we need to.' The Europeans have adopted similar tactics, not just spending lavishly with American defense contractors but also indulging Trump's interest in lineage, royalty, and, at times, even his romantic conquests. The German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, presented Trump with the birth certificate of his grandfather, who was born in 1869 in the German town of Kallstadt. A European diplomat from a different country made sure to mention their attractive friend, whom Trump had once dated. And Støre, the Norwegian prime minister, brought a photo of the country's current king as a young boy playing with Franklin D. Roosevelt's Scottish terrier, Fala—a nod, again, to Trump's penchant for monarchies. The Norwegians also brought a little gift for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth—his ancestral tree, tracing him back six generations to Norway. All of the machinations are, of course, a far cry from the simpler diplomatic cajoling of the aughts, when then–British Prime Minister Gordon Brown gifted then-President Barack Obama a penholder made from wood pulled from an anti-slavery ship, and in return, Obama gifted him 25 DVDs of classic movies—all available on Netflix or at a local video store and, according to news reports at the time, unplayable on British technology. For now, diplomats and world leaders must be content with trading tips, sharing advice, and hoping not to become the centerpiece of a cautionary tableau in the Oval Office. The most common piece of wisdom we heard from the foreign officials with whom we spoke was: Prepare, prepare, prepare, especially for the unexpected. One diplomat told us they had learned that the 'real press conference' was in many cases not the official one featuring the two leaders, but the Oval Office meeting beforehand, with members of the media present. And another diplomat's advice inadvertently underscored the earlier 'play the cards you have' counsel of his peer: 'Our trade is balanced,' this person told us, wryly. 'That's an insider tip—keep an even trade balance.'
UPI
an hour ago
- UPI
Russia fires 136 drones at Ukraine ahead of Trump-NATO head meeting
A Ukrainian firefighter works to extinguish a fire following mass Russian strikes in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Saturday, July 12, 2025. Over Sunday night, Russia fired 136 drones at Ukraine. Photo by Ukrainian State Emergency Service/UPI | License Photo July 14 (UPI) -- Russia fired 136 drones at Ukraine, Kyiv's air force said Monday, ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump's meeting with NATO head Mark Rutte, where the two are expected to announce a new weapons deal for their besieged European ally. The overnight attack began at 6:39 p.m. Sunday, and consisted of four surface-to-air missiles launched from Russia's Kursk region and the drones from several areas of Russia. The drones were reportedly Iran-made and -supplied Shahed unmanned aerial vehicle systems. Sixty-one of the drones were shot down and another 47 were either lost from radar or suppressed by electronic warfare, Ukraine's air force said, adding that 28 hit targets in 10 locations. "The air attack was repelled by aviation, anti-aircraft missile forces, electronic warfare units and drone systems, and mobile fire groups of the Ukrainian Defense Forces," it said in a statement on Telegram. The attack came as Trump is set to meet with Rutte, the NATO secretary general, on Monday. Rutte is in Washington, D.C., for a two-day trip ending Tuesday. Trump told a press gaggle at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland on Sunday that he will send Ukraine Patriot air defense system munitions, with the bill to be covered by the European Union. He also mentioned his upcoming meeting with Rutte, stating they will be sending "various pieces of very sophisticated" military equipment to Ukraine "and they're going to pay us 100% for them." Trump's announcement comes as he has grown publicly frustrated with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump campaigned on ending the war in 24 hours, but since returning to the White House in January has failed to bring about a cease-fire. He has pursued a cease-fire plan, but has been unable to get a commitment from the Russian leader. Earlier this month, Trump and Putin spoke over the phone, after which the American president told reporters that he "didn't make any progress" toward securing a cease-fire. To reporters on Sunday, he said, "Putin really surprised a lot of people. He talks nice and then he bombs everyone in the evening. There's a bit of a problem there. I don't like it."
New York Post
an hour ago
- New York Post
Ellen DeGeneres supports Rosie O'Donnell as Donald Trump threatens to strip her US citizenship
Ellen DeGeneres has thrown her support behind Rosie O'Donnell after President Trump threatened to strip the comedian of her US citizenship. The former talk show host, 67, took to Instagram over the weekend to give props to the 'A League of Their Own' star, 63, after she branded the commander in chief a 'dangerous old soulless man.' 'Good for you,' DeGeneres — who moved to England with her wife earlier this year — wrote alongside a screenshot of Trump's Truth Social post, as well as a screenshot of O'Donnell's response to the president. 5 Ellen DeGeneres has thrown her support behind Rosie O'Donnell after President Trump threatened to strip the comedian of her US citizenship. Getty Images for Live Nation On Saturday, the POTUS raged that he's giving 'serious consideration' to taking away the comedian's US citizenship — prompting her to fire back with a flurry of posts ripping him and picturing him with Jeffrey Epstein. The digital spat kickstarted after Trump branded O'Donnell a 'threat to humanity' in a fiery post on his social media platform. 'Because of the fact that Rosie O'Donnell is not in the best interests of our Great Country, I am giving serious consideration to taking away her Citizenship,' Trump wrote. 'She is a Threat to Humanity, and should remain in the wonderful Country of Ireland, if they want her. GOD BLESS AMERICA!' O'Donnell has been living in the Dublin suburb of Howth, in Ireland, with her 12-year-old child since January, having originally moved there following Trump's election win over Kamala Harris. 5 The 'A League of Their Own' star, 63, branded the commander in chief a 'dangerous old soulless man.' @rosie/Instagram 5 DeGeneres reposted a screenshot of O'Donnell's response to the president. @ellendegeneres/Instagram In March, O'Donnell revealed she and her child, who is non-binary and autistic, were in the process of obtaining Irish citizenship following their trans-Atlantic move. The comedian took to Instagram over the weekend to issue a scathing response to the prez following his strongly-worded post. 'Hey Donald – you're rattled again? 18 years later and I still live rent-free in that collapsing brain of yours,' O'Donnell said in one post, featuring a photo of Trump posing with Epstein. 'You call me a threat to humanity – but I'm everything you fear: a loud woman a queer woman. A mother who tells the truth an American who got out of the country b4 u set it ablaze,' she railed. 'You crave loyalty – I teach my children to question power you sell fear on golf courses – I make art about surviving trauma you lie, you steal, you degrade – I nurture, I create, I persist. You are everything that is wrong with America… I'm not yours to silence. I never was.' 5 Trump, for his part, branded O'Donnell a 'threat to humanity' in a fiery post on his social media platform. Truth Social/realDonaldTrump 5 The POTUS raged that he's giving 'serious consideration' to taking away the comedian's US citizenship. Getty Images It's unclear what legal basis Trump could use to strip the Long Island native of her American citizenship. Under current law, Americans cannot lose their US citizenship status even if they obtain citizenship elsewhere.
