Midterm minefield: Anwar Ibrahim faces rising discontent despite higher approval ratings

Straits Times

11 hours ago

Malaysian PM Anwar Ibrahim faces a host of tough issues even as current political stability has resulted in an uptick in support for the premier. PHOTO: BERNAMA
- Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has crossed the halfway mark of his first term as Malaysia's top leader, and amid marginal gains in approval ratings, the premier is still up against a minefield of political and economic challenges.
From the looks of it, the Anwar administration's sputtering attempts to implement tax hikes and subsidy cuts, perhaps encapsulates the hesitation to put its foot down on moves deemed necessary for long-term fiscal health, as well as moves that could be seen as not only detrimental to those at the bottom of the economic ladder but also politically risky.
Though Malaysia's inflation is at its lowest level in over four years, the cost of living is widely seen as continuing to climb – with the expanded sales and service tax (SST) effective July 1, a hike in electricity tariffs for the industrial sector in that same month, and with the government going ahead to reduce subsidies for the widely used RON 95 petrol by the end of 2025 .
The government is also considering whether to stop commercial eateries from using subsidised cooking gas, a scheme that would jack up the cost of eating out.
Though some of the measures have yet to be implemented, these issues have added to widespread views that prices of goods and services are all heading north.
'We used to eat out almost every day, but now we have cut it down to just two meals outside on weekends,' said teacher Ms S. Lee, 43. Her family of four used to spend around RM80 (S$25) for a meal at a casual cafe, but now that same meal could easily cost RM120 , especially for Western dishes like pasta .
'Even economy rice isn't economical any more,' she said , noting that it is getting harder to keep the simple rice-and-dishes combo to under RM12 for each person .
The worries come as Datuk Seri Anwar, 77, faces a host of tough issues while crossing the halfway mark of his first five-year term that began November 2022, providing food for thought, even as current political stability has resulted in an uptick in support for the premier.
His term as Malaysia's 10th prime minister has been lauded as bringing back political stability, compared with the chaotic years of having three prime ministers in the aftermath of the 2018 general election until he took the country's top post in 2022.
Mr Anwar's ascent to the country's highest office back then was accompanied by a surge of expectations of his reformist government. Some 2 1/2 years later, however, his administration has lost some of its shine.
Of late, there have been ringing concerns ranging from the ever-rising cost of living, to the crimping of democracy under his rule, including public anger over the use of government agencies to investigate and charge online critics. This comes amid growing unease in recent weeks over the government's Mobile Phone Data (MPD) project which collects users' mobile data from telcos without an opt-out option, raising concerns over free speech .
Social media censorship in Malaysia also surged during Mr Anwar's first year in power, according to a TikTok report released in mid-2024.
Nevertheless, a poll by independent pollster Merdeka Centre released June 23 showed Mr Anwar's approval rating rising slightly to 55 per cent in May, up from 54 per cent in December 2024 and 50 per cent in November 2023.
The pollster credited this to several factors, including a sense among Malaysians that the country is more stable politically, with Mr Anwar's leadership backed by a two-thirds parliamentary majority.
The Merdeka Centre's May survey of 1,208 voters, drawn from all major ethnic groups via stratified sampling, also found that the PM's global profile has improved, citing his hosting of China's President Xi Jinping in April and Malaysia's Asean chairmanship in 2025.
It also noted that cost-of-living relief measures such as a RM1,700 minimum wage, festive cash aid for civil servants, and ongoing fuel subsidies under Mr Anwar have helped ease public frustration.
Analysts, however, caution against over-interpreting the modest uptick.
'These are, frankly, quite marginal fluctuations which may or may not translate into voter preference come election time,' said political analyst Oh Ei Sun, a senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs.
Despite the improved ratings that offer a sliver of optimism, underlying discontent simmers – which would likely lead to delays or backpedalling on stated reforms.
Many Malaysians remain burdened by rising costs and looming subsidy cuts, matters which Mr Anwar must address with urgency, analysts say, as parties begin gearing up for the next general election due by February 2028.
To be sure, the Anwar administration has made some headway : Inflation is at a four-year low of 1.2 per cent in May; unemployment has eased to 3 per cent in April, the lowest in a decade; and foreign investment inflow rose 33 per cent to 2024 from the previous year.
However, these macro wins have not translated into widespread public satisfaction.
'Despite the often glorified macroeconomic numbers, many persons on the street as well as SMEs (small and medium-sized enterprises) are feeling an acute pinch,' said Dr Oh, noting that the price of his favourite chicken salad had jumped from RM28 to RM40 in the past few months.
An ongoing 'rightsizing' exercise at state oil giant Petronas, involving the removal of over 5,000 staff – or some 10 per cent of the total – has intensified the public scrutiny.
With the company struggling to maintain its RM32 billion annual dividend to the federal government amid a sharp decline in profits this year, this is just one of the pressure points Mr Anwar's government faces in sustaining revenue while pushing ahead with fiscal reforms.
Meanwhile, a plan to cut subsidies for the widely-used RON95 petrol risks inflaming voter dissatisfaction. The rationalisation of fuel subsidies, aimed at boosting government coffers, was announced by Mr Anwar in May 2024, but the government has struggled to implement targeted subsidies for RON95, with the rollout being delayed and indications that the plan may be watered down to avoid public backlash.
A revision of the SST, initially set to raise costs on a wide range of goods and services from July 1 including imported fruit, beauty treatments, elderly care, and banking, sparked public furore. In response, the Finance Ministry announced a U-turn on June 27, exempting several items such as imported apples, oranges, mandarins, dates, and beauty services from the list.
'The economic reforms it (the government) has mooted, including subsidy rationalisation, are needed but politically risky,' said Mr Amir Fareed Rahim, strategic director at risk consultancy KRA Group.
'There is increased restlessness on the ground with insecurities over increased cost of living and wider global economic uncertainties squeezing Anwar's voter base, especially the urban middle class and vulnerable groups. The key is adroit communication and finding ways to shield both the working and middle-classes,' he added.
Mr Anwar's unity government also faces headwinds from within.
His own Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) is showing signs of internal strain following former deputy president Rafizi Ramli's failure to retain his position in party elections which resulted in his subsequent resignation as Economy Minister, alongside Natural Resources and Environmental Sustainability Minister Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad who is a Rafizi ally. The twin exits from the Cabinet may deepen divisions within PKR. Finance Minister II Amir Hamzah Azizan has assumed the duties and functions of the economy minister.
The re-emergence of a sexual assault case involving former aide Yusoff Rawther and a failed bid for legal immunity as sitting Prime Minister has reignited scrutiny of Mr Anwar's past and fuelled attacks on his credibility. While Mr Yusoff was arrested in 2024 over drugs and replica firearms found in his car, he was acquitted of the charges by the High Court in June 2025. Mr Anwar has denied that the immunity move was an attempt to evade legal scrutiny.
'These are of course unneeded distractions,' said Dr. Oh.
For now, Anwar's biggest advantage is the lack of a credible alternative.
'Voters still put a premium on political stability,' KRA Group's Mr Amir noted. 'The administration has undoubtedly provided that, along with its nascent moves towards reform.'
Externally, the opposition remains fragmented, with Perikatan Nasional's key Parti Islam SeMalaysia and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia preoccupied with leadership tussles.
The road ahead continues to be fraught with minefields, as Mr Anwar must juggle governance, reforms, and political survival with increasing dexterity, said analysts. He must push forward with institutional changes and better communication on economic policies, while retaining support across Malaysia's multi-ethnic electorate.
'PKR is fundamentally a big-tent party,' said KRA Group's Mr Amir. 'It cannot afford to give up on many demographics.'
Mr Anwar became PM after a hung Parliament in the 2022 general election through coalition-building despite a Malay vote deficit, relying heavily on non-Malay support and institutional backing to secure the premiership.
He rose to power after forming a multi-coalition unity government with support from his Pakatan Harapan, former foe Barisan Nasional, and Borneo coalitions, securing a two-thirds majority in Parliament.
Winning broader Malay support remains a major political challenge for him ahead of the next general election.
As Malaysia braces for more economic headwinds and shifting geopolitical tides, the premier's ability to keep the country on an even keel while managing political landmines, will determine whether his unity government survives the next general election.
'Also, he needs to keep his base on side with sensible and substantive governance reforms, and to make stronger inroads into the Malay votes especially the fence sitters and the vulnerable lower middle class groups,' said KRA Group's Mr Amir.
Support from Sabah and Sarawak remains vital, as calls for greater Borneo federalism grow louder, with leaders pushing for more autonomy and fairer resource-sharing under the Malaysia Agreement 1963.
'It's a delicate balancing act but if he (Anwar) can do it – a second term is certainly within reach,' said KRA Group's Mr Amir.
Hazlin Hassan is Malaysia correspondent at The Straits Times.
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