Can Chirag Paswan pack a power punch in Bihar polls?

India Today

16 hours ago

(NOTE: This article was originally published in the India Today issue dated August 11, 2025)On July 26, Union minister Chirag Paswan was in Gaya to address a public gathering when he lashed out at the Nitish Kumar-led NDA regime in Bihar. 'I am sorry I have to support this government,' he told the media when asked about the ambulance rape incident that had rocked the town—and made national headlines—two days earlier. 'Murders, kidnappings, rape... yet the state machinery prostrates itself before criminals.' Though he refrained from naming the chief minister, there was no mistaking who his salvo was aimed at—the home department works under Nitish.advertisementInsiders acknowledge that Chirag's withering critique was no kneejerk reaction, nor a bargaining ploy for more seats in alliance negotiations. With the Bihar assembly polls slated in October-November, the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) chief is playing a far bigger game.Chirag's history with Nitish is one of both rivalry and alliance. In 2020, the then undivided LJP fielded candidates in 135 of Bihar's 243 constituencies, most of them against the JD(U) or Janata Dal (United). This delivered a stinging blow, relegating Nitish's party to third place. Yet, the latest attack is less about enacting an encore than about seizing the present moment.
The BJP, despite being the largest party in the state assembly, with 80 MLAs, lacks a local leader with pan-state appeal who can command loyalty. Conversely, Nitish—once lauded as the architect of Bihar's post2005 resurgence—now appears diminished. Whispers about his health and his grip on power slipping have spurred speculation of an impending leadership vacuum. In this liminal space, Chirag discerns a fault line ripe for exploitation.
THE ELECTORAL PARADOXChirag carries both the promise and the weight of his late father Ram Vilas Paswan's legacy. His ambitions to return to Bihar power politics extend beyond undermining a rival; they also expose a certain existential dilemma: the party has been extraordinary in parliamentary elections—sweeping five out of five seats in 2024, six out of six in 2019 and six out of seven in 2014 on vote shares of just 6-8percent—yet it has been a disaster in assembly polls, scoring 3, 2 and 1 seat in the past three elections, respectively.This is not a statistical anomaly, but a deeper organisational failure: while the party has piggybacked on the larger NDA vote in Lok Sabha contests, it lacks the grassroots machinery, local leadership and policy platform necessary to convert that momentum into statelevel power. Compounding this is the widespread perception—dating back to Ram Vilas's tenure as Union minister—that the LJP's interests lie chiefly in central politics, a stand that has led supporters to look elsewhere in assembly elections.advertisementFor Chirag, this anomaly is both a challenge and an opportunity. His crusade for a more prominent role in Bihar's politics—evident in his 'Bihar Bula Raha Hai (Bihar is calling)' campaign, and his party's bold decision to field him from an unreserved seat in the upcoming election—is designed to bridge the gap between national visibility and regional credibility. The hope is that it will transform the LJP from a sporadic spoiler into a decisive force in Patna's corridors of power.Election fever has yet to pick up in Bihar, but insiders are already whispering about how Chirag's ambitions extend beyond his ministerial berth in New Delhi. One confidant quipped, 'Do you think he will come to Patna merely to serve as a minister here? No; the only office that interests him is the chief minister's chair.'LANGUAGE OF THE YOUTHAlthough the BJP commands substantial strength elsewhere in the Hindi heartland, Bihar remains the lone state where it has never governed in its own right, perpetually reliant on coalition partners like the JD(U) to secure power. Recognising this, Chirag is now aspiring to occupy the space Nitish has dominated since 2005. An essential part of that will be rejuvenating his LJP faction and whipping up some enthusiasm in the 5.3percent Paswan cohort, the largest grouping in the state's 19.7percent Scheduled Caste demographic.advertisementNext up is the real possibility that alliance partner BJP will prop him up as a strategic foil to Nitish. Sources say the lack of a leader with pan-state appeal is weighing heavily on the BJP leadership. They have reportedly urged Chirag to campaign across the state, especially in urban and semi-urban pockets where youth voters could tilt the balance. The feeling is that Chirag's 'Bollywood-style charisma', pro-Modi stand and aspirational messaging will resonate across caste lines, especially among first- and second-time voters. 'He speaks the language of the youth,' says a BJP strategist. 'He's modern, rooted and unapologetically ambitious.'There's another vacuum he spots. Bihar's 20 per cent Dalit vote is splintered into numerous subcommunities. The LJP's Paswan base, where Chirag is thought to command en bloc loyalty, has hitherto had a near-autonomous trajectory. The party has not specifically eyed a larger Ambedkarite consolidation, and is thus aloof from other Dalit segments—Ravidas (5.2percent), Musahar (3.1percent), Panar (1.7percent) and Pasi (1percent). Chirag has room for growth here. The only other claimant to Bihar's Dalit landscape, Hindustani Awam Morcha leader Jitan Ram Manjhi, is now 80, and his son and heir, Santosh Suman Manjhi, lacks Chirag's panache. They have also not grown much above their Musahar caste band. These dynamics have convinced followers that Chirag could be the one to unite the disparate Dalit flock and claim his father's mantle as Bihar's preeminent Dalit leader.advertisementTARGETING NITISHThe timing of Chirag's public rebuke is no accident, say analysts. Nitish's diminishing appeal opens up a vortex of uncertainty, and the LJP chief's advisors perhaps feel it's time to test the waters with the broader electorate that is increasingly frustrated with the security and governance issues facing the state.Not that the JD(U) is oblivious to Chirag's motives. The critique of Bihar's law and order situation drew an immediate rebuke from the coalition partner. JD(U) spokesperson Neeraj Kumar dismissed the plaints, and also served a reminder: 'PMModi and (Union home minister)AmitShah trust NitishKumar, and NCRB data shows crime has declined in Bihar. Excess of anything is bad...everyone should remember that.'The lessons of the 2020 assembly election still loom large in Bihar's collective memory. When Chirag broke ranks with the NDA and fielded LJP candidates against the JD(U), it may have won just one seat, Matihani, but it polled 5.7percent of the vote (238,300-odd votes) across the 135 seats it contested. More to the point, in a remarkable 38 constituencies, the margin of defeat for NDA candidates was less than the votes won by the LJP, enabling the RJD to claim 29 of these seats and the Congress nine.advertisementThe fallout was catastrophic for the JD(U), which collapsed to just 43 MLAs in 2020, while the BJP surged to 74 wins. The move was widely interpreted as a spoiler manoeuvre—one that many believe the BJP tacitly encouraged to cut Nitish down to size.The LJP's performance also throws up intriguing hints. Its 238,300 votes translated to a 10.3percent share in the seats it contested. However, discounting the 110 where it forfeited deposits, it narrows the party's real sphere of influence to about 25 seats. These are precisely the constituencies the NDA may deem suitable for any seatsharing arrangement. Chirag, of course, may not be satisfied with that number.
HISTORICAL ECHOESChirag's father, RamVilas Paswan, once stood poised to become Bihar's kingmaker after the February 2005 assembly election, when the LJP won 29 seats—its bestever performance in the state. Those results produced a hung house and offered him the power to determine the next government, yet he failed to clinch the moment.Chirag, sources say, is keenly aware that he cannot afford to miss such opportunities. The strategy, for now, is to be deliberate and daring. The decision to contest from an unreserved seat rather than a Dalit/ reserved constituency—and asking the public to decide which one—signals an ambition to emerge as a pan-Bihar leader. His speeches, peppered with precise criticism of specific incidents, from shocking rapes to police inaction in urban districts, lend his messages moral force. He amplifies these assertions across social media, panchayat meetings and targeted doortodoor campaigns, recasting the LJP's image from a niche caste outfit into a potential kingmaker.Post-election, a resurgent LJP may reshape Bihar's political equilibrium. Nitish's JD(U) could find its onceformidable coalition position precariously eroded. Caste alliances might shift as other marginalised groups seek their champion. Will Chirag's rhetoric and provocations translate into real seats in the state house? Or will the LJP's historic weakness in local organisation blunt his ascent? As the young politician refines his campaign, balancing his father's legacy with modern aspirations, Bihar watches. One thing is certain: this election will change Chirag Paswan and his LJP forever.—with Anilesh S. MahajanSubscribe to India Today Magazine- EndsTune InMust Watch