UFC 317 Main Event Odds And Predictions: Topuria Vs. Oliviera

Forbes

2 days ago

ABU DHABI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES - OCTOBER 24: Ilia Topuria of Spain is seen on stage during the UFC ... More 308 press conference at Etihad Arena on October 24, 2024 in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)
The UFC lightweight title is up for grabs in the main event of Saturday's UFC 317 pay-per-view card. In the headlining bout, former UFC featherweight champion looks to remain unbeaten and secure his second UFC title when he meets ex-UFC lightweight champion Charles Oliveira for the belt left vacant by Islam Makhachev. We take a deep dive into the Topuria vs. Oliveira matchup.
Topuria vs. Oliveira is not the only title fight on the UFC 317 PPV card. In the evening's co-main event, Alexandre Pantoja looks to defend his UFC flyweight belt against Kai Kara-France.
UFC 317 takes place on June 28 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The ESPN+ streaming pay-per-view card headlines this year's version of the UFC's annual International Fight Week. The main card streams on ESPN+ PPV following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass.
UFC 317 Main Event: Ilia Topuria Vs. Charles Oliveira
ABU DHABI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES - OCTOBER 26: Ilia Topuria of Spain reacts after a knockout victory ... More against Max Holloway in the UFC featherweight championship fight during the UFC 308 event at Etihad Arena on October 26, 2024 in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)
Topuria is a former Cage Warriors champion. He joined the UFC in 2020 with a 9-0 record. It did not take him long to make a name for himself. He was ranked No. 14 in the featherweight division after three UFC bouts at 145 pounds and one contest in the 155-pound division. Three of those scraps ended with Topuria winning via knockout.
In his first fight as a ranked featherweight, Topuria dispatched Bryce Mitchell via submission in the second round, earned his first 'Performance of the Night' bonus and moved to No. 9 in the rankings.
A matchup with No. 5 ranked Josh Emmett followed the Mitchell win. Topuria picked up a decision in a 'Fight of the Night' scrap. Topuria's next fight, saw him face Alexander Volkanovski for the UFC featherweight title at UFC 298. Topuria entered that bout as the No. 3 ranked featherweight. He left as the champion after knocking out Volkanovski in the second stanza.
In his first defense of the UFC featherweight crown, Topuria made history, becoming the first fighter to finish former 145-pound champion Max Holloway via strikes, knocking out the ex-champion in the third round of their UFC 308 meeting in October 2024.
When Topuria decided to move to lightweight and give up his featherweight title, he vowed to sit until he got a 155-pound title shot. That fight takes place at UFC 317.
Topuria has a 16-0 record with eight of those wins coming under the UFC banner.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - NOVEMBER 16: Charles Oliveira of Brazil looks on against Michael Chandler in a ... More lightweight fight during the UFC 309 event at Madison Square Garden on November 16, 2024 in New York City. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
Charles Oliveira (35-10-0-1) has been fighting with the UFC since 2010. He won the vacant lightweight title with his win over Chandler and defended the title once, beating Dustin Poirier. He was booked to face Justin Gaethje in his second title defense, but Oliveira missed weight for that fight, which he won by submission, losing the title on the scale.
Oliveira had a chance to regain the belt in October 2022, but Islam Makhachev submitted him and claimed the vacant belt. Since that loss, Oliveira is 1-1, beating Beneil Dariush by TKO in June 2023 and losing to Arman Tsarukyan via split decision in April of this year.
Oliveira is coming off a November 2024 decision win over Michael Chandler.
Oliveira is the No. 2 fighter in the official UFC lightweight rankings.
UFC 317 Main Event Betting Lines And Movement: Ilia Topuria Vs. Charles Oliveira
When BetOnline first published the betting odds for Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira, Topuria was a -300 favorite over Oliveira, who came in as the +250 betting underdog. Today, Topuria is listed at -525, while Oliveira is the +400 betting underdog.
UFC 317 Main Event Tale Of The Tape: Ilia Topuria Vs. Charles Oliveira
Age: 28
Height: 5' 7'
Reach: 69'
Stance: Orthodox
Age: 35
Height: 5'10'
Reach: 74'
Stance: Orthodox
UFC 317 Main Event Predictions And Picks: Ilia Topuria Vs. Charles Oliveira
Oliveira has had a fantastic UFC career, and that career is far from over. However, he is part of the 'old guard' of the UFC's lightweight division. That group of fighters includes the men Oliveira has beaten as of late: Michael Chandler, Beneil Dariush, Justin Gaethje, and Dustin Poirier. The fighters who are not in that group are the men who have defeated Oliveira, competitors such as Arman Tsarukyan and Islam Makhachev. Ilia Topuria is part of that new generation.
If Oliveira approaches this fight like he has been competing as of late, he will be in trouble. That means Oliveira cannot opt to strike in range against Topuria, who is a powerful striker with good footwork and finishing skills. Oliveira must fight at distance and keep Topuria from getting in close. Oliveira has not shown a willingness to fight that type of battle.
The betting pick is for Ilia Topuria to beat Charles Oliveira to win the UFC lightweight title by knockout.
UFC 317 Main Event: Islam Makhachev To Vacate The UFC Lightweight Title
ABU DHABI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES - OCTOBER 21: Islam Makhachev of Russia reacts after his knockout ... More victory against Alexander Volkanovski of Australia in the UFC lightweight championship fight during the UFC 294 event at Etihad Arena on October 21, 2023 in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)
In the lead-up to UFC 316, the speculation was if Belal Muhammad retained his UFC welterweight title with a win over Jack Della Maddalena, then UFC lightweight champion Islam Makhachev would remain at 155 pounds and defend his title against Ilia Topuria. The reason for this thinking being that Makhachev and Muhammad have trained together and that they would not be willing to face each other inside the Octagon.
However, with Jack Della Maddalena defeating Muhammad, that opened the door for Makhachev to move to welterweight. The thinking now being that he will get an immediate title shot against Maddalena in the freshly crowned champ's first title defense.
Makhachev's manager Ali Abdelaziz spoke to MMA Junkie about the situation.
'If Belal were to win, Islam was never going to fight Belal, and he's going to stay in the (lightweight) division. But now Jack wins,' Abdelaziz said. 'Islam has beaten everyone in this division, literally. Dan Hooker, Arman (Tsarukyan), Charles Oliveira, he's on a 15-fight winning streak, finished nine of his last 10 opponents. (There's no one who) deserves to go fight for a second title than Islam, and the reason he wasn't going to do it because Belal was the champion.'
UFC CEO Dana White has announced the plans for Della Maddalena vs. Topuria, but did not announce a date for the 170-pound title fight.
We will have more on the UFC 317 main event as fight night nears, as well as live results, reactions, highlights and more for the UFC 317 pay-per-view card on fight night.