Democrats see Trump's big bill as key to their comeback. It may not be so easy.

Boston Globe

14 hours ago

Indeed, in political battlegrounds across Alaska and Iowa, Pennsylvania and California, Democrats have already begun to use Trump's bill to bludgeon their Republican rivals. Democrats are promising that the package — Trump's biggest domestic policy achievement to date — will be the defining issue of every major election between now and next fall's high-stakes midterms.
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'One thing is abundantly clear: Republicans own this mess and it's an albatross around their necks heading into the midterms,' Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin told The Associated Press. 'This is the least popular legislation in modern history, and the more voters learn about it, the more they hate it. That's a clear directive for Democrats -- we're going to make sure every single voter knows who is responsible.'
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Even with early public opinion on their side, however, it's far from certain that the Republican budget bill will be the political winner Democrats hope.
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The Democratic brand remains deeply unpopular, the party has no clear leader, its message is muddled and core elements of the Democratic base are frustrated and drifting. Some of the bill's changes won't take effect until after the 2026 midterms, so voters may not have felt the full impact by the time they vote. At the same time, it's unclear how many voters are paying attention to the Washington-based debate.
The Democratic super PAC Priorities USA warned this week that Democrats must work harder if they want their message to break through the polarized media environment.
'We can't just assume that because we're angry that the voters that we need to communicate with are angry. Everyone needs to step up and realize the enormous challenge that's in front of us,' Executive Director Danielle Butterfield said. 'We're nowhere near a good starting place.'
At its core, the bill's priority is $4.5 trillion in tax breaks enacted in Trump's first term that would expire if Congress failed to act, along with new ones. This includes allowing workers to deduct tips and overtime pay.
The package includes $1.2 trillion in cutbacks to Medicaid and food stamps and a massive rollback of green energy investments. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates the package will add $3.3 trillion to the deficit over the decade.
Democrats in Congress were united against the bill, and even some Republicans expressed concerns. But ultimately, Trump persuaded the conservative holdouts to fall in line.
Democrats' challenge on display
Privately, some Democrats conceded that Republicans were smart to pass the bill on the eve of a holiday weekend when fewer voters would be paying attention.
And as some Democrats in Washington predicted a fierce political backlash across America, the response was somewhat muted Thursday at a Democratic event in Iowa, barely 10 miles from the Iowa State Fairgrounds where Trump later drew thousands for an evening rally.
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An audience of roughly 100 people listened as local Democratic officials railed against the legislation and called on voters to oust Republican Rep. Zach Nunn, the local congressman, for supporting it.
Audience member Michael Rieck, 69, said Iowa Democrats left him a message about the rally, but when he went online to learn more, 'there was nothing.'
'I texted back to them that I didn't see any advertisement,' he said. 'They slowly corrected that. I'm still not impressed with what they did to advertise this event.'
Rieck said he wants to see different factions of the party better coordinate their message.
Meanwhile, progressive activists were moving through Minnesota in a big green bus as part of Fair Share America's 29-stop 'stop the billionaire giveaway' tour. The group is focused on Republican-led congressional districts where elected officials have largely stopped having in-person town halls with constituents.
Fair Share Executive Director Kristen Crowell said the crowds, even some Trump supporters, have been receptive.
Still, she acknowledged many people don't know what's in the bill.
'We know we're fighting upstream,' she said. 'But when people hear exactly what's in this bill, they're adamantly opposed. I mean, I can tell you, in 17 stops, I've not had one person come up to me and say, 'You are on the wrong side of this.''
What the polls say
The GOP's bill is generally unpopular, according to polling conducted throughout the month of June, although some individual provisions are popular.
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For example, a Washington Post/Ipsos poll found that majorities of U.S. adults support increasing the annual child tax credit and eliminating taxes on earnings from tips, and about half support work requirements for some adults who receive Medicaid.
On the other hand, the poll found that majorities oppose reducing federal funding for food assistance to low-income families and spending about $45 billion to build and maintain migrant detention centers.
The price tag could be a sticking point. About 6 in 10 U.S. adults in the poll said it was 'unacceptable' that the bill is expected to increase the U.S. national debt, currently at $36 trillion, by about $3 trillion over the next decade.
But polling indicates that most Americans aren't paying attention to the nuances of the bill, either.
The Washington Post/Ipsos poll found that only about one-third of U.S. adults have heard 'a great deal' or 'a good amount' about it.
Democrats are planning a summer of organizing
The Democratic National Committee and its allies plan an 'organizing summer' that will feature town halls, training and voter registration drives in at least 35 competitive congressional districts. The message will be focused heavily on Trump's bill.
Democratic groups also are expected to unveil a new round of digital attack ads targeting vulnerable Republicans in the coming days.
Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly, who leads the Democratic Governors Association, said her party must keep the bill's contents at the forefront of people's minds to ensure it's an issue in the 2026 midterm elections — and even the next presidential election in 2028.
'We'll just have to keep that on the radar,' she said.
Meanwhile, progressive groups are planning a 'Family First' day of action for July 26 in all 50 states. They'll highlight vulnerable Americans hurt by the new Medicaid cuts and hold a 60-hour vigil at the U.S. Capitol.
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'Because people call Medicaid something different in every state, a lot of people didn't realize — until this very moment — that their health care was at stake,' said one of the Family First organizers, Ai-jen Poo, president of the National Domestic Workers Alliance.
'We have made a promise to each other and to future generations that there will be a safety net in place when we need it. And this is what's being ripped away. And people will not stand for it.'
Peoples reported from New York. AP writers Amelia Thomson DeVeaux in Washington; John Hanna in Topeka, Kansas; and Marc Levy in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, contributed.