3M Open odds, predictions: Three long shot picks for TPC Twin Cities

New York Post

4 days ago

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All four major championships are now behind us, so the PGA Tour schedule will hit a bit of a lull this week with the 2025 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities in Minnesota.
Most of the Tour's top players just completed the Scottish-British Open double, so they'll take this week off to get re-adjusted to life on this side of the pond before getting ready for the 2025 FedEx Cup Playoffs, which begin on Aug. 7 with the St. Jude Championship.
With so much starpower on the sidelines this week, the 3M Open is up for grabs with no player sticking out as a clear favorite.
Sam Burns (16/1) and Maverick McNealy (18/1) are essentially co-favorites at BetMGM, and they are the only players sitting inside 25/1 on the board.
The red-hot Chris Gotterup (25/1), Wyndham Clark (25/1), and Si Woo Kim (30/1) round out the top five on the betting board.
With a weak field and a relatively easy course, the 3M Open has produced plenty of long-shot winners in its history. Michael Thompson, Cameron Champ, Tony Finau, Lee Hodges, and Jhonattan Vegas are the past five champions here, which tells you everything you need to know about how this tournament will play out.
2025 3M Open picks
Tony Finau (40/1, BetMGM)
If Tony Finau had any form going into this tournament, he'd be the outright favorite.
The Utahn arguably has the highest ceiling of any player in this field, and his course history is superb. Not only did Finau win this event in 2022, but he has posted four top-12 finishes in his last five trips to TPC Twin Cities.
Finau's pedestrian form is hard to ignore, and he's making a long trip from Northern Ireland, but the price is right for a player who should be motivated to get his act together before the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
Tony Finau won the 2022 3M Open.
Getty Images
Cam Davis (120/1, FanDuel)
Players who can hit it a mile do well at the 3M Open.
Finau, Champ, Vegas, and Matthew Wolff all can get down the course in a hurry, and so can Cam Davis, who has some pretty encouraging results at TPC Twin Cities.
Davis is one of nine players in this field that has played in every iteration of the 3M, and he's finished 12-28-16-10-19 in the last five editions.
Like Finau, Davis' form is nothing to write home about, but that's allowing us to back him at a terrific price in a tournament that is set up for him to succeed.
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Gordon Sargent (350/1, Caesars)
At this time last year, Gordon Sargent was regarded as one of the hottest prospects in golf. The Alabama native was coming off a terrific junior season at Vanderbilt, where he was the low amateur at the 2024 U.S. Open (finishing T-39), and he had already earned PGA Tour status.
Unfortunately, the hype surrounding Sargent stalled thanks to a poor showing in his senior year at Vanderbilt.
Sargent turned pro ahead of the Canadian Open, where he missed the cut, but he's collected paychecks in his last three outings, and he posted a career-best T24 at the ISCO Championship last week.
That was an alternate field event, so the competition was unimpressive, but the 3M isn't going to play that much tougher than the Isco.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.