Tennessee Democrats have a chance in a looming special congressional election
If you haven't heard, Republican U.S. Rep. Mark Green announced his intent to resign from Congress on July 20 and there will be a special election to replace him in Tennessee's 7th Congressional District, a district which spans from deep blue Davidson County in the east to deep red Decatur County in the west. Under Tennessee law, an election to fill a congressional vacancy must take place by early November — a tight turnaround.
Democrats in Davidson County, in District 7, in Tennessee, and across the rest of the country have a unique opportunity to flip this seat. The Republican margin in Congress is already razor thin: Republicans can lose just three votes on any given legislation. A few strategic seat flips could place Democrats within striking distance of retaking the majority in the House.
Now, if you're a good self-defeating Democrat, you may be thinking to yourself, 'Self, didn't former Nashville Mayor Megan Barry lose this race just eight months ago by 21.5 points?' Well, yes. She did. Flipping the district will take some work, but there are a few factors that narrow the gap.
The two Democrats competing in special congressional elections since November have vastly outperformed the expectations for their districts. In April, Democratic candidate Gay Valimont in Florida's 1st Congressional District moved her district 17 points from November in the special election to replace Rep. Matt Gaetz. Similarly, Joshua Weil improved the margin in Florida's 6th Congressional District by 19 points, also in April. That sounds like an average of 18 points to me, and I do basic math every single day for a living. The gap in Tennessee's District 7 of 21.5 points is not insurmountable.
This special election has national implications. There are three other vacancies in Congress — Texas's 18th Congressional District, Arizona's 7th Congressional District, and Virginia's 11th Congressional District are vacant due to deaths — right now which will require special elections: All three are in safe Democratic districts which are not likely to swing toward Republicans this cycle. In that case, all eyes will be on Tennessee as the premiere special election in the country. For once, a Tennessee Democratic candidate will have significant resources from outside the state. Assuming the other seats are retained by Democrats, once Green's seat flips, U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, will have a majority of just three members (he could lose just one vote on any given bill). Get your popcorn ready for a knockdown, drag-out fight for this seat.
President Donald Trump's administration and congressional Republicans just handed the American public a hot mess with their One Big Beautiful Bill Act ('OBBA'). The bill is certainly big, in terms of the tax cuts that the wealthy will reap and in terms of the harm that will be done to the poorest Americans, but it is anything but beautiful. The bill will cost millions of Americans their health coverage, shutter rural hospitals and the federal deficit will explode. (I'm beginning to think maybe it was never about fiscal responsibility?) This is not to mention the clean energy cuts and expansion of unaccountable Immigration and Customs Enforcement deportation measures. Republicans may not realize just yet, but the bill harms Americans. Democrats are fired up and ready to go shout this from the rooftops.
The Tennessee race is winnable for Democrats, with the right candidate. So, what does that candidate look like? I'd say they're looking for someone who is:
Pragmatic and can rise above petty politics to do the right thing at all costs;
Deeply caring about their community, their district, our country, and humanity at large;
Capable of crafting and delivering a message built on kitchen table, economic issues like better public schools, cheaper health coverage, lower prices and eliminating Trump tariffs;
Unafraid to stand up against the Trump political movement and stand up for those among us who are marginalized and forgotten;
Experienced in public service and knows the ins and outs of getting things done;
Exciting to the base, who can deliver a win with an effective campaign that is built on the fundamentals.
Democrats have a number of options to choose from that might fit the bill. Within days of Green announcing his resignation, two Democratic state representatives announced their candidacy for the seat: Rep. Bo Mitchell and Rep. Aftyn Behn, both of Nashville. A few other names are being tossed around as well, including Nashville Rep. Vincent Dixie and former Nashville Mayor John Cooper. Better buckle up, as Democrats are in for an exciting primary.
At the end of the day, no matter who you support this special election season, it's important to engage in the process. Politics is about people after all. Democracy, if we work for it, gives people, like you, a voice.
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