Elaine Loughlin: Presidential poker — who's bluffing, who's stalling, and who's really in the race?

Irish Examiner

07-06-2025

It's gearing up to be a last-minute dash for the Áras as all parties, and none, seem caught up in a game where no one wants to make the first move.
With Frances Black all but ruling herself out of the race, the grand plan to put forward one consensus candidate of the left could fall apart before it fully materialises.
However, many willing to back her still quietly believe the singer, campaigner and senator wasn't fully serious when she declared in recent days that she is "98%" out of the race.
"I wouldn't believe that from Frances Black, she is interested in running for the presidency. I think it's just something that people feel they have to say, I'm not sure why," a TD on the left confidently said.
"No one is campaigning, but Frances Black was on The Late Late and she was on radio," the source joked.
Whether the belief that Black can still be swayed is borne out of solid information or comes from a place of hope remains to be seen. But if the left is sincere in wanting to put forward a strong consensus candidate, a decision will have to be made soon.
Independent TD Catherine Connolly. Picture: Collins Photos
Galway TD Catherine Connolly is a name that those on the left have cited as another possibility, but her support may not be as widespread.
"There is no way on earth that the Labour party could nominate her," one source said stressing that she had "given the party a kicking" in the past — a party that she resigned from back in 2006 after she failed to be selected in the Galway West constituency as running mate of Michael D Higgins.
"There is a deep, deep beef between members in Galway and Catherine Connolly. We would have resignations in Galway if we backed her," the source added.
Possible candidate: Katriona O'Sullivan
Author and academic Katriona O'Sullivan, as well as former WHO executive director Mike Ryan, have been floated as potentials, but have also failed to develop further than that.
"We are keen to have a centre left candidate in the race, someone who can build on the legacy of Michael D. I think it's import that people have a good choice in the election, that it's not just one strong candidate and a load of others," said one Social Democrats TD but added that "nothing has crystalised" out of initial talks with other parties.
Likewise, time is ticking down for Fianna Fáil, which has yet to identify a strong individual who is not tainted by the party's handling of the recession.
Names including Bertie Ahern and Mary Hanafin have been bandied about but largely dismissed within the party. Others in the mix include sitting MEPs Barry Andrews and Cynthia Ní Mhurchú.
Senior sources have indicated that the only serious option would be to follow the route taken with Mary McAleese in 1997 by selecting a person with close links to the party who does not have the baggage that might come with a previous role as an elected representative.
Mairead McGuinness is expected to get the nod from Fine Gael.
Fine Gael is now seen to be furthest along in its election selection with former EU Commissioner Mairead McGuinness widely expected to get the nod after a number of other contenders including Frances Fitzgerald, Sean Kelly, and Heather Humphreys, ruled themselves out.
But even Simon Harris's party appears in no rush to start a formal campaign, so far avoiding what should be a natural political urge to get out and about canvassing.
Knowing that it is likely to become a bruising and highly personal fight, no one wants to get into the presidential election ring too early this time around
It was an aspect that Black referenced, in declaring that she is all but certain she doesn't want the presidency before slightly rowing back to Anton Savage by clarifying that "there's a part of me that feels, if I'm the right person — I'm not sure I am — but if I am the right person, then that's the 2%."
In stressing the reason why she may not end up running under a unified left banner, she said: "I've seen how other campaigns have been run, and they have been — I could only describe — blood baths. So it's not something that I would want, to be honest with you."
Part of the delay from the left also lies with Sinn Féin. Before the likes of Labour, the Social Democrats, and People Before Profit can get behind a combined candidate, they must wait for Mary Lou McDonald's party to make a decision — row in with the others or go it alone.
After a disastrous election last time around, which saw Liadh Ní Riada gain just 6.4% of the vote, Sinn Féin has sought direction from the grassroots up.
"We got it wrong in 2018, so we're trying to take on more feedback from members this time. It will guide a lot of what our next moves are," a senior party source told Irish Examiner deputy political editor Paul Hosford this week.
This process has included emails to all members and online meetings, with the consultation process due to come to a close this weekend.
Looking to outsiders, a number of high-profile individuals, including Conor McGregor and Peter Casey, have suggested they will seek a nomination but have yet to lobby local councils in a bid to get the required backing of four local authorities or 20 Oireachtas members.
The slow start means we could have a very speedy election campaign when it eventually does get underway.