J.P. Morgan Pounds the Table on Amazon Stock Amid Prime Day Extravaganza
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In a break from tradition, the 11th annual Prime Day will run for four days instead of two, spanning July 8 to 11 and featuring millions of deals across more than 35 product categories in 26 countries – some of which will host their own events later this summer.
The extended sale is not just good news for bargain hunters, it's also expected to give Amazon's top line a boost. J.P. Morgan's Doug Anmuth, an analyst ranked among the top 1% of Wall Street stock experts, projects daily year-over-year growth of around 10% in Amazon's first-party, third-party, and physical store sales during Prime Day compared to 2024. This forecast is already factored into Anmuth's estimate for Q3 net sales, which he expects to climb 9.6% year-over-year on a constant currency basis, approaching $175 billion. While these numbers are impressive, they don't even account for potential 'incremental revenue' from advertising, subscriptions, or new Prime member acquisitions – areas where Anmuth sees Prime Day delivering added benefits well beyond the sales event itself.
Driving these optimistic projections are several key factors. According to Anmuth, Prime Day will help jumpstart back-to-school and college shopping during a typically slow retail season. Expanded third-party offerings, record-breaking delivery speeds, a sharper focus on everyday essentials, and the continued expansion of the Prime ecosystem have all contributed to 'increased purchase consideration and frequency.' Amazon's regionalization strategy has also yielded 'significant operational improvements,' enabling the company to better handle the Prime Day rush, while also 'rationalizing inventory levels' ahead of the busy 2H shopping period.
'Importantly,' says the 5-star analyst, 'the longer duration of Prime Day suggests AMZN has sufficient inventory despite tariff challenges, likely a function of forward buying in recent months.'
Still, there have been some concerns about participation from certain third-party sellers in light of tariff pressures, especially as Amazon imposed selective U.S. fulfillment center capacity limits in Q2 to maintain network efficiency. However, Anmuth notes that both Amazon and its marketplace sellers have proactively moved inventory forward to prepare for the surge in demand. Even so, he acknowledges that growth will continue to face some headwinds from a volatile macro environment and softer consumer sentiment. Nevertheless, 'Prime Day's expansive discounts and coupons and longer duration should support demand trends as consumers increasingly hunt for deals,' Anmuth summed up.
With all these factors in play, Anmuth remains bullish on Amazon, keeping the stock as his Best Idea with an Overweight (i.e., Buy) rating and a $240 price target. (To watch Anmuth's track record, click here)
Amazon's strong positioning isn't just Anmuth's view; nearly every other Wall Street analyst is on board as well. Excluding one skeptic, all 45 other recent reviews are positive, giving AMZN a Strong Buy consensus rating. The average price target sits at $246.60, suggesting shares could trade at an 11% premium a year from now. (See AMZN stock forecast)
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