Latest news with #Anmuth
Business Insider
10-07-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
J.P. Morgan Pounds the Table on Amazon Stock Amid Prime Day Extravaganza
Amazon's (NASDAQ:AMZN) Prime Day shopping bonanza has kicked off on Tuesday and this year consumers will be getting a double dose of discounts. Don't Miss TipRanks' Half-Year Sale Take advantage of TipRanks Premium at 50% off! Unlock powerful investing tools, advanced data, and expert analyst insights to help you invest with confidence. Make smarter investment decisions with TipRanks' Smart Investor Picks, delivered to your inbox every week. In a break from tradition, the 11th annual Prime Day will run for four days instead of two, spanning July 8 to 11 and featuring millions of deals across more than 35 product categories in 26 countries – some of which will host their own events later this summer. The extended sale is not just good news for bargain hunters, it's also expected to give Amazon's top line a boost. J.P. Morgan's Doug Anmuth, an analyst ranked among the top 1% of Wall Street stock experts, projects daily year-over-year growth of around 10% in Amazon's first-party, third-party, and physical store sales during Prime Day compared to 2024. This forecast is already factored into Anmuth's estimate for Q3 net sales, which he expects to climb 9.6% year-over-year on a constant currency basis, approaching $175 billion. While these numbers are impressive, they don't even account for potential 'incremental revenue' from advertising, subscriptions, or new Prime member acquisitions – areas where Anmuth sees Prime Day delivering added benefits well beyond the sales event itself. Driving these optimistic projections are several key factors. According to Anmuth, Prime Day will help jumpstart back-to-school and college shopping during a typically slow retail season. Expanded third-party offerings, record-breaking delivery speeds, a sharper focus on everyday essentials, and the continued expansion of the Prime ecosystem have all contributed to 'increased purchase consideration and frequency.' Amazon's regionalization strategy has also yielded 'significant operational improvements,' enabling the company to better handle the Prime Day rush, while also 'rationalizing inventory levels' ahead of the busy 2H shopping period. 'Importantly,' says the 5-star analyst, 'the longer duration of Prime Day suggests AMZN has sufficient inventory despite tariff challenges, likely a function of forward buying in recent months.' Still, there have been some concerns about participation from certain third-party sellers in light of tariff pressures, especially as Amazon imposed selective U.S. fulfillment center capacity limits in Q2 to maintain network efficiency. However, Anmuth notes that both Amazon and its marketplace sellers have proactively moved inventory forward to prepare for the surge in demand. Even so, he acknowledges that growth will continue to face some headwinds from a volatile macro environment and softer consumer sentiment. Nevertheless, 'Prime Day's expansive discounts and coupons and longer duration should support demand trends as consumers increasingly hunt for deals,' Anmuth summed up. With all these factors in play, Anmuth remains bullish on Amazon, keeping the stock as his Best Idea with an Overweight (i.e., Buy) rating and a $240 price target. (To watch Anmuth's track record, click here) Amazon's strong positioning isn't just Anmuth's view; nearly every other Wall Street analyst is on board as well. Excluding one skeptic, all 45 other recent reviews are positive, giving AMZN a Strong Buy consensus rating. The average price target sits at $246.60, suggesting shares could trade at an 11% premium a year from now. (See AMZN stock forecast) To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks' Best Stocks to Buy, a tool that unites all of TipRanks' equity insights.
New York Post
02-07-2025
- Business
- New York Post
Amazon Prime members brace for sticker shock as price hike predicted
The cost of an Amazon Prime membership could potentially rise next year, according to Wall Street analysts. analyst Doug Anmuth said last week in a research note that the bank thinks the Seattle-based e-commerce giant could raise the price of its popular Amazon Prime membership in 2026. Amazon has charged an annual fee of $139 for its Prime membership in the U.S. since 2022. Before that, it cost $119 a year. Setting a higher price for it next year would be 'consistent with its cadence of raising the price every ~4 years,' the research note said. Prime memberships provide subscribers with free same-day, one-day, and two-day shipping on many products, along with access to Prime Video, Amazon Music, Prime Reading, and discounts at Whole Foods and Amazon Fresh. 4 The cost of an Amazon Prime membership could potentially rise next year, according to Wall Street analysts. Christopher Sadowski Anmuth said the value of the various aspects of a Prime membership make the subscription worth about $1,430 per year, an estimate that is '~10x the $139 annual Prime subscription cost, +6% from our estimated value of ~$1,345 in 2024, & more than double the $544 value in 2016.' The e-commerce giant has been introducing new benefits and 'scaling existing offerings' for Amazon Prime in recent years, making it increasingly more valuable, according to the analyst. Anmuth highlighted Amazon's expansion of its fulfillment network and last-mile transport network, as well as an increased emphasis on 'regionalized fulfillment infrastructure' and other initiatives when it comes to logistics. 4 Setting a higher price for it next year would be 'consistent with its cadence of raising the price every ~4 years,' the research note said. Christopher Sadowski The research note also mentioned Prime's grocery benefits, complimentary Grubhub+ memberships for U.S. users, new shopping features, and the investments the company has been making in its video streaming service. Amazon and GrubHub started making a free GrubHub+ membership available to Prime subscribers in the U.S., 'as an ongoing offer' in May of last year, even giving them the ability to place orders through Amazon's website and app. Prime 'is a key driver of the Amazon flywheel and helps Amazon build a loyal customer base,' according to the analyst. 4 Prime memberships provide subscribers with access to Prime Video, Amazon Music, Prime Reading, and discounts at Whole Foods and Amazon Fresh. Christopher Sadowski In the note, Anmuth suggested a Prime price hike of $20 in the U.S. could bring Amazon a roughly $3 billion boost in 'incremental annualized Net sales.' He also indicated doesn't think an increase in the price next year would cause 'significant churn' or negatively impact membership growth. 4 Prime 'is a key driver of the Amazon flywheel and helps Amazon build a loyal customer base,' according to the analyst. AFP via Getty Images This year, the bank estimated Prime's membership count will hit roughly 350 million, with international markets offering 'strong growth opportunity' in the future. Amazon first started offering Prime memberships in 2005, about a decade after the company was first founded by Jeff Bezos. The e-commerce giant had a market capitalization of over $2.3 trillion as of Monday, making it one of the most valuable companies in the world.
Business Insider
01-07-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
J.P. Morgan Bangs the Drum on Amazon Stock as Logistics Takes Off
Amazon (AMZN) has undergone a remarkable metamorphosis from a humble online bookseller to the world's most dominant ecommerce platform, expanding into everything from cloud computing and grocery retail through Whole Foods to entertainment production and smart home technology. Don't Miss TipRanks' Half-Year Sale Take advantage of TipRanks Premium at 50% off! Unlock powerful investing tools, advanced data, and expert analyst insights to help you invest with confidence. Make smarter investment decisions with TipRanks' Smart Investor Picks, delivered to your inbox every week. Tied closely to that transformation is Amazon's rapidly evolving logistics business, which has turned into something of a monster – a vast and sophisticated network capable of handling everything from same-day deliveries to long-distance shipping at an immense scale. This logistics powerhouse is no longer just a support function but a strategic growth engine in its own right. During the Covid-19 pandemic, Amazon doubled its fulfillment network and built a last-mile delivery system comparable to UPS. Now, the tech giant is once again extending its logistics reach, rolling out a new sortation network aimed at improving speed and efficiency for long-distance shipments. These logistics improvements have paved the way for a more regionalized fulfillment structure across the U.S., driving notable gains in efficiency and helping reduce Amazon's cost-to-serve for the second consecutive year in 2024. In the first quarter of 2025, unit volume surged by 8% year-over-year, well ahead of the 3% rise in shipping costs, signaling that these cost efficiencies are holding steady. This ongoing evolution in logistics has not gone unnoticed on Wall Street. Observing these moves, J.P. Morgan's Doug Anmuth, an analyst ranked among the top 1% of Street stock pickers, sees Amazon's Logistics-as-a-Service (LAAS) as the company's emerging 'next pillar.' According to Anmuth, Amazon Logistics (AMZL) now handles more than 66% of package deliveries, despite 61% of those units coming from third-party sellers. As UPS, which manages roughly 15% of Amazon's shipping volume, begins to shift some shipments away, AMZL is well-positioned to capture that demand. Moreover, Amazon is rapidly expanding its same-day and one-day delivery (SD1D) coverage to over 4,000 smaller cities, towns, and rural areas by year-end, giving it access to tens of millions of new customers. So far in 2025, SD1D deliveries in the U.S. are up more than 30% compared to last year. In preparation for this growth, Amazon plans to invest $4 billion by 2026 to scale its rural delivery network. That investment is expected to enable the company to deliver an extra one billion packages annually across 13,000 zip codes covering 1.2 million miles, expand its delivery station footprint to over 200, and triple its rural delivery capacity. These efforts are already bearing fruit. According to Pitney Bowes, Amazon Logistics delivered approximately 6.3 billion packages last year, representing around 28% of the total 22 billion U.S. parcels shipped in 2024. That performance puts Amazon ahead of FedEx and UPS, and closing in on the USPS's 31% market share of 6.9 billion packages. In addition, Amazon has broadened its reach in multi-channel fulfillment (MCF) and Logistics-as-a-Service through initiatives such as Amazon Shipping, Supply Chain by Amazon, Amazon Warehousing & Distribution (AWD), and Buy With Prime for all U.S.-based merchants — further cementing its logistics leadership. 'These initiatives should expand AMZN's reach, unlock logistics volume, & support L-T FBA pricing power & 3P Seller Services revenue growth,' Anmuth added. All of this underpins Anmuth's view that Amazon remains his 'best idea,' as he reiterated an Overweight (i.e., Buy) rating with a $240 price target, suggesting a 7.5% upside from current levels. Barring a lone skeptic, all 47 other recent analyst reviews for AMZN are also positive, backing up a Strong Buy consensus rating. Based on the $243.24 average price target, Amazon's shares could be trading at an 11% premium a year from now.(See Amazon stock forecast) To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks' Best Stocks to Buy, a tool that unites all of TipRanks' equity insights.
Miami Herald
29-06-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
Analyst sees an unpleasant change coming to Amazon Prime
People tend to have mixed opinions about Amazon (AMZN) as a company, but many could care less as long as their packages are delivered on time. 180 million Americans subscribed to Amazon Prime as of 2024, according to research from Consumer Intelligence Research Partners, a company that has tracked Amazon memberships since 2014. Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter That's a massive number of folks willing to pay $139 a year for Amazon's signature speed-of-light shipping, along with access to Prime Day, Prime Video, Prime Reading, Amazon Music, discounts at Whole Foods and more. Amazon has worked hard to make sure the service offers plenty more than just fast shipping as its raised the price over the years. When it launched in 2005, Amazon Prime was just $79 annually. Related: Walmart delivers Amazon some really bad news Its last price hike was in 2022, when it went from $119 to $139. But the increase didn't deter growth, and the subscriber base has continued to increase every year. Now experts say that Amazon has a change coming this year that subscribers aren't going to like. According to a new research note released by J.P. Morgan on June 25, it's highly likely that Amazon Prime will increase in price soon. "The expectation is driven by rising costs in shipping, fulfillment, and the expansion of Prime's offerings, including streaming and exclusive content," the note reads. More Retail: Huge retail chain suddenly closing hundreds of storesMajor retailer scores huge benefit from Joann bankruptcyHome Depot, Target, Ulta and more strike back at retail crime J.P. Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth deeply researched Prime and estimated that unbundling all of its components shows that the subscription is worth a lot more than the $139 price tag. Anmuth's estimations value a Prime subscription at $1,430 per year, in fact. This is why J.P. Morgan predicts that the retail giant will likely increase the price of Prime to $159 in 2026, which is on par with Amazon's cycle of increasing the cost every four years. Related: Amazon shuts down another key business location Amazon has good reason to make the move too. According to the note, "A $20 U.S. Prime price increase is seen driving about $3 billion in incremental annualized net sales." J.P. Morgan also projected that Prime will continue to see major growth, predicting that the company will approach 350M members in 2025. While J.P. Morgan clearly sees Amazon increasing the cost of Prime in the near future as a good thing for its business, people may not be as amicable to the idea as they have been in the past. An uncertain economic climate, driven largely by the trade war started by the announcement of President Trump's tariffs in April, has caused consumers to become very wary of any purchases that aren't absolutely necessary. This is starkly reflected in the retail report for May, where sales fell 0.9% per the Commerce Department. Compared to only a 1% decline in April, it marks a steep change in the way people are spending - or choosing not to spend - their money. It's hard to say how things may change by 2026, when Amazon would most likely announce a price increase. But its next jump may make the service too rich for people's tastes. Related: Why beauty will be the beast of Amazon Prime Day deals The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
CNBC
22-06-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Top Wall Street analysts like these three stocks for long-term growth
The Middle East conflict and macro uncertainty are expected to keep global stock markets volatile, so it would be prudent for investors to ignore short-term noise and pick names with solid growth prospects. To this end, top Wall Street analysts' research can be a key consideration for investors who are picking out stocks and seeking names with long-term potential. Here are three stocks favored by the Street's top pros, according to TipRanks, a platform that ranks analysts based on their past performance. We start this week with online pet retailer Chewy (CHWY). The company recently delivered solid revenue and earnings for the first quarter of fiscal 2025. However, investors were concerned about some aspects, including the decline in free cash flow. Reacting to the Q1 FY25 performance, JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth increased his price target for CHWY stock to $47 from $36 and reiterated a buy rating, saying that the post-earnings sell-off in the stock seems overdone. TipRanks' AI analyst has an outperform recommendation on CHWY stock, with a price target of $46. Anmuth stated that he remains bullish on Chewy stock due to its strong execution, growth in active customers, and profitability ramp. He expects sponsored ads, product mix and fixed cost leverage to drive a multi-year profitability ramp. "We believe CHWY is capturing share from AMZN/WMT supported by hardgoods, product mix shift, consumables, AutoShip, & efficient marketing, while improving industry trends would be a tailwind," the analyst said. Anmuth views Chewy's full-year revenue outlook as conservative, given that the company is tracking towards the upper half of its guidance range. He highlighted that the 240,000 sequential increase in Q1 2025 Active Customer marked the fourth consecutive quarter of growth. He also pointed out improvements in other metrics like gross additions, reactivations and retention. Anmuth ranks No. 42 among more than 9,600 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been profitable 65% of the time, delivering an average return of 21.9%. See Chewy Ownership Structure on TipRanks. Next on this week's list is social media platform Pinterest (PINS). Recently, the company entered into a partnership with Instacart, under which advertisements on Pinterest will become directly shoppable via Instacart. Reacting to the collaboration, Bank of America analyst Justin Post reaffirmed a buy rating on PINS with a price target of $41. TipRanks' AI analyst has assigned an outperform rating on PINS stock, with a price target of $37. Post said that advertisers can capitalize on Instacart's first-party purchase data to target Pinterest users. The analyst highlighted that in the initial phase, select brands can reach Pinterest users based on real-world retail purchase behavior captured by Instacart. The second phase will introduce a "closed-loop measurement," enabling advertisers to see how Pinterest ads lead to product sales across Instacart's network of over 1,800 retail partners. Overall, this partnership will provide more precise ad campaign insights and performance tracking. Post noted the rise in PINS stock in reaction to this deal and potentially favorable Q2 ad data. The top-rated analyst thinks that the partnership is a "good fit as CPG [consumer packaged goods] is one of Pinterest's largest verticals (cooking and recipes also popular), and the closed loop attribution on campaigns will likely be valued by advertisers." If successful, Post thinks that the partnership could drive incremental ad spend by CPG clients. He remains constructive on Pinterest due to artificial intelligence (AI) enhancements that seem to be fueling user engagement and improved ad performance, with AI ramp still in the early stage. Post ranks No.23 among more than 9,600 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been successful 69% of the time, delivering an average return of 22.9%. See Pinterest Insider Trading Activity on TipRanks. We move to Uber Technologies (UBER), a ride-sharing and delivery platform. Recently, Stifel analyst Mark Kelley initiated a buy rating on UBER stock with a price target of $110. The analyst stated that he views UBER as a "super app" offering multiple reasons to use its platform, like commuting, ordering food and delivery. Commenting on whether the emergence of autonomous vehicles (AVs) is a risk or opportunity, Kelley said that AVs present minimal risk to Uber's business over the near-to-medium term due to some hurdles, like safety, clarity on regulatory framework, cost of manufacturing AVs and large investments needed to support an AV fleet. In fact, the analyst thinks that the long-term risk from AVs is also unclear currently due to a wide range of potential outcomes. Kelley is optimistic that Uber is well-positioned to meet or surpass the financial targets set in 2024, thanks to its solid execution. He expects gross bookings growth of 16% each in 2025 and 2026, supported by continued expansion into non-urban areas and internationally, with persistent adoption of UberOne. Moreover, Kelley expects earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization growth to be higher than gross bookings and revenue growth in 2025 and 2026. Finally, Kelley is confident that Uber will eventually be successful in Delivery, which also facilitates customer acquisition, mainly in less dense/non-urban areas. He expects initiatives like Uber One and increased supply to boost Delivery bookings ahead. Kelly is also bullish on the greater retail media sub-segment of digital ads, as Uber has several advantages, like access to location data. Like Kelley, TipRanks' AI analyst is also bullish on UBER stock, with a price target of $108. Kelley ranks No.119 among more than 9,600 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been successful 67% of the time, delivering an average return of 25.3%. See Uber Technologies Statistics and Valuation on TipRanks.
