Hardening lines signal Ukraine peace process collapse

AllAfrica

10-05-2025

US President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance's latest comments on talks with Russia show that the US's negotiating stance has toughened.
The first comment echoed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky by calling for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire and threatened to impose sanctions if it's violated. The second revealed that Russia's demand for Ukraine to withdraw from the entirety of the disputed regions is 'asking for too much.'
Together, they confirm growing US impatience with the Ukraine peace process, which began in late March. Back then, Trump threatened to impose strictly enforced secondary sanctions against those who purchase Russia's oil if he determined the transactions are responsible for the peace talks' potential failure.
One month later, he speculated that Russian President Vladimir Putin is 'just tapping me along', during which time he reaffirmed the secondary sanctions threat. Shortly after, the US and Ukraine signed their long-awaited minerals deal, which this analysis here correctly predicted would be followed by more American weapons packages.
Although it was planned far in advance of said developments, Putin's latest meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Moscow arguably took the form of Russia's response considering the two spent a whopping seven hours together in talks.
It was foreseen before their meeting that 'Putin & Xi Might Hash Out A Grand Deal That Would Enter Into Force If The Ukraine Talks Collapse', which appears to have been exactly what happened and could have provoked Trump's latest post.
The US already knows that Russia is against an unconditional 30-day ceasefire because it rightly fears, per the precedent of prior ceasefires during the Minsk Accords era, that this could be exploited to give Ukraine time to rotate its troops and rearm ahead of reinitiating hostilities.
It's also important for Russia to obtain full control over the entirety of the disputed regions as part of a peace deal in order to fully incorporate and 'denazify' those territories that it now considers to be its own.
Vance's comments make it clear that the US considers this to be 'asking too much' and therefore won't coerce Ukraine into withdrawing from them, thus suggesting that Trump's subsequent call for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire is meant to indefinitely freeze the Line of Contact against Russia's wishes.
Threatening strictly enforced secondary sanctions for lack of compliance, presumably against those who purchase Russia's oil is meant to simultaneously pressure Putin and his country's top oil clients, including China.
Trump's disclosure that he discussed joint efforts to end the Ukrainian conflict in his latest call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his recent remark about how 'I think it's a natural thing to ask' China to assist with this suggest that he envisages Erdogan and Xi pressuring Putin.
They would be incentivized to do so for fear of the US enforcing Trump's threatened secondary sanctions against their countries if they refuse or fail after trying. India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi could be roped into this, too, since India is another top buyer of Russian oil.
Unless there's a breakthrough, such as Russia steamrolling across the Line of Contact or conceding to freeze it in exchange for something significant from the US (which the public might not be privy to), this sequence of events suggests that the peace process might soon collapse.
The US is preparing for that scenario by signaling why it might happen from its perspective and hinting at what it'll do in that case (i.e. more anti-Russian sanctions and arms for Ukraine) so its proxy war with Russia might soon escalate.
This article was first published on Andrew Korybko's Substack and is republished with kind permission. Become an Andrew Korybko Newsletter subscriber here.