Yes, nations can help to prevent runaway heating – DW – 06/16/2025

DW

16-06-2025

Most countries in the world have agreed to set their own goals to keep the planet from overheating. The pressure is now on for them to do so.
At Kenya's Lake Turkana wind park, towering turbines line dirt roads as far as the eye can see. And this is just one of the sites that has turned the country into a renewables powerhouse.
From generating approximately half of its electricity using sustainable sources such as geothermal, solar and wind power in 2000, Kenya has now increased that share to 90%. And it doesn't plan to stop there. As part of its new climate goals, the Sub-Saharan nation has pledged to be using 100% renewables by 2035.
It's a show of force and proof of concept for other countries meeting in the German city of Bonn this week to hash out sticking points ahead of the November UN climate summit in Brazil.
Discussions over how countries plan to reduce reliance on the fossil fuels that are heating the planet are not officially on the agenda. But experts say they are the elephant in the room.
What are climate targets and why do they matter?
Domestic climate targets — nationally determined contributions or NDCs, as they are known — are a key part of the international Paris Agreement. Under the accord, the world agreed to keep global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) with efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Even small temperature increases are connected to more frequent and intense irregular weather events such as storms, flooding, drought and extreme heat.
As part of the accord, the 195 signatories are obliged to submit ambitious non-binding goals every five years. These should outline both how they plan to reduce their carbon emissions and how they will adapt to the impacts of climate change already being felt globally.
"It's also an opportunity for all countries to, in one policy document, combine their own economic and prosperity plans with climate policy in an integrated way that's charting a path forward for a sustainable economy," said Steffen Menzel, program lead for climate diplomacy and geopolitics at climate think tank E3G.
Countries all over the world have adopted solar and wind power in vital steps away from oil, gas and coal, which heat the planet as they are burned Image: NurPhoto/IMAGO
Have countries already stated their aims?
Nations should have filed their most recent climate goals to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in February. But so far, only 22 countries have done so.
Among them are big emitters like the United Kingdom and Japan. The former Biden administration also submitted decarbonization plans for the United States, before President Donald Trump pulled out of Paris Agreement. But many countries are still solidifying their goals according to Jamal Srouji, associate in the Global Climate program at the research nonprofit World Resources Institute.
"They want to make sure that their assumptions make sense and respond to the political realities and priorities of the country," Srouji said.
"Countries are now most concerned about competitiveness, making sure they stay ahead or are part of the new technologies that are really going to be driving economic growth...national energy security, especially what we've seen in recent years, is actually the main driver for why now policymakers still consider the climate as an important agenda because it intersects so well," he told DW.
Countries are limited by financial resources
Nafkote Dabi, climate change policy lead at Oxfam International, said some poorer countries, for example least developed nations like Chad, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Bangladesh, are wary of committing to ambitious goals on monetary grounds.
"They are afraid that they're committing to something, but there's no finance to help them achieve what they have outlined," Dabi said, adding that wealthier countries have a duty to help.
"It's not to put all the blame on rich countries, but it's about historical responsibility, financial capability, technological capability," she said.
At the international climate conference in Azerbaijan last year, industrialized countries agreed to provide $300 billion (€258 billion) in funding for developing nations, promising to mobilize a total of $1.3 trillion, although it is unclear where the money will come from.
Action from the biggest polluters
While experts say climate targets need to come from all nations including low emitters like Kenya, it is action from the biggest states that will make the most difference.
The G20 group of countries, which includes China, Germany, Australia, Russia and the United States, are responsible for around 80% of global emissions overall and Dabi says they are not doing enough to reduce their greenhouse gases.
"Certain groups need to do more to reduce their emissions and that should not fall on the poorest communities because the transformation required is huge," she said.
Still, almost a decade after the inception of the Paris Agreement, experts say that over time the targets have improved.
"I don't want to say things are looking bright at this point in time... but I do think that the mechanisms we agreed to 10 years ago have made a big change globally and also in many jurisdictions around the world," Menzel said.
Under Donald Trump, the US is rolling back climate regulations and betting instead on fossil fuels Image: J. David Ake/AP Photo/icture alliance
Although pledges are non-binding, Srouji says that once a "country goes on the international stage and says, 'here's our plan', if they walk back on it, they are going to be getting a lot of international scrutiny."
How successful have the climate targets been?
Speaking at the start of talks in Bonn on Monday, UN climate chief Simon Steill said the annual UN climate conferences had "benefits for billions of people".
"Let's not forget: Without UN-convened climate multilateralism, we would be headed for up to 5 degrees Celsius of global heating. Now it's around 3. It's a measure of how far we've come, and how far to go," he said.
Global economic crises and conflicts are absorbing the attention of leaders globally, but Menzel said it is still the "smart thing" for world leaders to engage in international climate diplomacy and accelerate the energy transition.
"We still know the cost of inaction is far greater than all of the investment we are making into climate action, into financing the transition and that climate impacts are already costing lives," he said. "But of course, it is a challenge."
Edited by: Tamsin Walker