Is Zagreb military parade a reflection of a new Balkan arms race?

Euronews

2 days ago

A military parade in Zagreb on Thursday celebrated the 30th anniversary of a Croatian army campaign that seized control of ethnic Serb-held territory in what was then a freshly independent state splintering off a crumbling Yugoslavia.
The event came almost three decades after Operation Storm was launched on 4 August 1995.
Three days later, the Croatian army had brought the Republic of Serb Krajina (RSK), an ethnic Serb-led territory in what is now Croatia, to an end.
The operation had decisive strategic and diplomatic effects on the wars in the former Yugoslavia, both in Croatia and neighbouring Bosnia and Herzegovina.
By seizing territorial control of the Krajina, Zagreb was able to declare a definitive end to its war of independence against a de facto Serb-dominated Yugoslavia, which had begun in 1991.
The successful Croatian counteroffensive in its east also had a spillover effect in Bosnia, where the Bosnian Serb forces, challenged by NATO bombardments, began to lose ground on several fronts, until the Dayton Peace Accord was reached in November 1995.
Since taking complete control of its territory to effectively assert its independence, Croatia became a full-fledged member of NATO in 2009 and of the EU in 2013.
New strategic priorities and business challenges
Igor Tabak, a Croatian political and security analyst from the OBRIS institute in Zagreb, said the real victory celebrations took place 30 years ago, but that Thursday was an opportunity for Croatia to showcase its military spending to its taxpayers.
Croatia has hit its target of spending 2% of its GDP on defence and aims to increase this further, Tabak added.
"There have been significant (military) purchases through the last few years. More is on the way, so our taxpayers have to see where it's all going and this is a good occasion for such a show."
Thursday's military parade, the first to mark Operation Storm for a decade, showcased Croatia's transition from eastern weapons systems inherited from the former socialist Yugoslavia to Western arms.
Instead of Soviet MiG 21s, Croatia now uses 4.5-generation multi-role fighter aircraft from France. It is also set to acquire 50 Leopard 2A8 tanks from Germany.
Tabak also pointed to Croatian-made drones which have been used in Ukraine, which he described as "big news in our defence industrial base".
This comes as the countries of the former Yugoslavia are making considerable efforts to renew and adapt their arsenals to NATO standards.
Apart from Serbia, these nations are mainly importers, as their arms industries almost exclusively produce small arms.
Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania have also equipped themselves at great expense with weapons compatible with NATO standards.
View from Belgrade
For most ethnic Serbs, Operation Storm represented a campaign of ethnic cleansing, with thousands of Croatia's Serbs forced to resettle in Serbia and Bosnia.
Tensions between Croatia and Serbia continue, with the region further polarised by Russia's all-out war in Ukraine and the continued cordial relations between Belgrade and Moscow.
Serbia has not aligned itself with Western sanctions against Russia, despite its candidacy to join the EU, while Croatia has signed a defence cooperation agreement with Albania and Kosovo in March.
According to Nikola Lunić, an independent security and military analyst and a former Serbian military officer, the region risks entering an arms race it cannot afford.
'The bilateral relations between Zagreb and Belgrade are not cordial, so when they see that we are strengthening our army, they do the same,' says Lunić.
Like Croatia, Serbia has also signed an agreement with France's Dassault to buy 12 Rafale planes worth almost €2 billion.
Belgrade also imports weapon systems from China and Russia, while also having its own substantial production and exports.
On 3 September, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić will participate in the large military parade organised by Chinese President Xi Jinping to mark the 80th anniversary of the defeat of Japan.
Another military parade is scheduled in Belgrade on 15 September.