Will Trump's big tax bill come back to bite the GOP in 2026?

The Herald Scotland

9 hours ago

History, in this case, favors the Democrats' argument. The party that does not hold the White House typically wins the House in the midterm elections as voters express frustrations with the new president's policies. This trend applies regardless of party in modern history, with some exceptions.
And public polling about the Republican bill already indicates voters aren't thrilled about it. A Fox News poll published in mid-June found 38% of respondents favored the legislation and 59% opposed it. Polls from Quinnipiac, The Washington Post, KFF and Pew reflected similar sentiments.
"This will cost Republicans the House," said Rep. Suzan DelBene, D-Washington, chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which is responsible for helping Democrats keep and win House seats.
Democrats have their 'script' for 2026
The bill's Medicaid cuts are expected to leave 11.8 million Americans without insurance over the next ten years - a deeply "damaging" result that will drive up healthcare costs for families, DelBene said. Democrats have likened this bill to Republicans' 2017 attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act, after which Republicans lost 40 seats in the House.
"People want representatives that are going to stand up for them," she argued, "and this bill is an example of Republicans turning away from their constituents."
Republicans have "written the script" for 2026, said Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Maryland.
"I'm certainly going to be talking about it all of the time," he told USA TODAY. "I mean, nothing could better capture the way that the Republican party just serves Donald Trump and our would-be monarchs and oligarchs."
It's not just Democrats who have identified the Medicaid cuts as a potential political threat.
During a meeting with House Republicans on July 2, as GOP leadership scrambled to find the votes for the package, Trump said they shouldn't touch three things if they wanted to win elections - Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security, according to the news site NOTUS.
One member reportedly responded: "But we're touching Medicaid in this bill."
Campaigning after Medicaid cuts
Rep. Don Bacon, R-Nebraska, represents a swing district and recently announced he plans to retire from Congress. He has been a vocal opponent of the Medicaid cuts in the bill, but he said before the vote that he would approve the measure because it would save the average Nebraskan $141 per month in taxes and pour billions into the defense budget.
Bacon said he believes the Senate's version, which implemented deeper cuts to Medicaid, makes it easier for Democrats to paint the package in a negative light during the midterm elections.
"I could have defended the House bill every day. It was easy," he said. "But in the end, do I want to raise taxes on the middle class? No. Do I want to fix defense? Yes."
Some Republicans are confident they can explain their reasoning to voters, including those who raised concerns about Medicaid cuts.
Rep. Jeff Van Drew, R-New Jersey, argued before the vote that his concerns were allayed by provisions in the bill that would allow hospitals in his district to continue to draw down sufficient federal funds.
"I've said all along that we have to do this in an intelligent way. I believe that it seems we've charted a way to do that. Where we started a few months ago, people were saying we're going to gut Medicaid. We're a long ways off from that."
GOP confident tax breaks will carry them
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-Louisiana, said he believed the bill would prop up Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections.
"Every Democrat (in the) House and Senate voted no," Scalise said on July 3. "The American people are going to see great benefits from this bill, and they're going to know which party was fighting for them and which party was literally trying to hold up the vote for hours so that those families couldn't get that relief."
"The Democratic Party still doesn't know why they lost in November. They're going to be reminded of that next year when they lose again," he added.
The bill makes permanent the 2017 income tax cuts implemented during Trump's first term and pours $170 billion in border security funding.
In a memo on the bill, the National Republican Congressional Committee indicated it plans to argue Republicans prevented "the largest tax hike in generations" and delivered a historic funding boost for border security.
"This vote cemented House Democrats' image as elitist, disconnected, snobby, unconcerned with the problems Americans face in their daily lives, and most of all - out of touch," Mike Marinella, NRCC spokesman, said in a statement.
"House Republicans will be relentless in making this vote the defining issue of 2026, and we will use every tool to show voters that Republicans stood with them while House Democrats sold them out."