500 Bird Species Face Extinction Within The Next Century

Forbes

a day ago

The loss of these birds will lead to the unraveling or to the complete collapse of entire ecosystems.
An adult male yellow-bellied sunbird-asity (Neodrepanis hypoxantha) in Ranomafana National Park, ... More Madagascar. This tiny songbird lives in montane forests where it feeds on feeds on nectar. (Credit: Dubi Shapiro / CC BY-SA 3.0)
A recent international study warns that more than 500 bird species could go extinct in the next 100 years due to climate change and human persecution. The species that are most vulnerable to extinction include the yellow-bellied sunbird-asity, the helmeted hornbill and the bare-necked umbrellabird. The loss of these vulnerable birds would greatly reduce the variety of avian sizes and shapes and would harm ecosystems as well as humans that depend on unique birds for vital ecosystem functions.
'The rate of extinction in modern times is unprecedented,' the study's lead author, ornithologist and conservation biologist Kerry Stewart, a PhD student at the University of Reading, told me in email 'We predict three times as many bird extinctions in the next 100 years as have been recorded since 1500 AD (164 recorded avian extinctions). Extinctions on this scale are expected to fundamentally alter avian communities worldwide, potentially undermining ecosystem stability and resilience.'
Helmeted Hornbill (Rhinoplax vigil) is a very large bird in the hornbill family. It is found on the ... More Malay Peninsula, Sumatra, Borneo, Thailand and Myanmar. It is critically endangered due to poaching and habitat loss. (Credit: Doug Janson / CC BY-SA 3.0)
Many of these threatened birds will require targeted interventions if they are to survive at all.
'We need immediate action to reduce human threats across habitats and targeted rescue programs for the most unique and endangered species,' Ms Stewart explained. 'Many birds are already so threatened that reducing human impacts alone won't save them. These species need special recovery programs, like breeding projects and habitat restoration, to survive.'
Tragically, Ms Stewart and collaborators found that even with complete protection from hunting, habitat loss, and climate change, roughly 250 bird species will probably go extinct anyway.
Ms Stewart and collaborators came to this conclusion after examining IUCN Red List data for nearly 10,000 bird species. They predicted extinction risk based on the types of threats that each species faces.
'Birds differ in their vulnerability to different human threats, so large-bodied species are particularly likely to be vulnerable to hunting and climate change, while birds with broad wings suffer more from habitat loss,' Ms Stewart told me in email. 'We also found that many of the world's most unique species in terms of their size and shape are threatened with extinction.'
Why should people care about these bird species, many of which live in faraway places?
'Bird declines have serious implications for ecosystems and human societies,' Ms Stewart replied in email. 'Declines alter species interaction networks which undermines ecosystem stability and has knock-on effects for other species including plants, mammals and insects. The impact of bird declines are expected to be particularly serious when they reduce the diversity of the roles that species play within an ecosystem.'
The Indian vulture (Gyps indicus) is an Old World scavenger native to India, Pakistan, and Nepal. ... More They are usually found in savannas and other open habitats around villages, cities, and near cultivated areas. They are critically endangered after their populations crashed in 2002 and afterwards. (Credit: Mike Prince via Animalia.bio / CC BY)
'Birds provide many services that humans depend upon. For example, pollination, pest control and seed dispersal are necessary for agricultural production, and some birds are important scavengers – the vulture decline in India was estimated to have killed more than half a million people between 2000 and 2005 (ref) following the spread of disease-carrying pathogens due to an excess of dead animals,' Ms Stewart elaborated in email. 'Birds also have immense cultural value, with over $14.5 billion being spent on birdwatching trips every year in the US alone (PDF).'
Considering this is not the first warning that scientists have delivered regarding the conservation status of the world's birds, what makes this study unique?
'One of the novel aspects of this paper is that we estimated biodiversity loss in more than one way, looking at species extinctions and functional diversity decline,' Ms Stewart explained in email. 'Functional diversity describes the diversity of size and shape of species within a community, and can be useful for understanding the range of ecological roles present in an ecosystem which is important for understanding ecosystem function and integrity. We found that functional diversity will decline as much as species richness in response to species extinctions, and that threats like hunting and collection have a particularly large impact on functional diversity per the number of species affected.'
In addition to sounding yet another warning regarding these birds' extinction risks, Ms Stewart and collaborators also identified which conservation actions will best preserve both the number of bird species and their ecological functions. The study found that stopping the destruction of habitats would save the most bird species overall. However, reducing hunting and preventing accidental deaths would save birds with more unusual functions, which are especially important for ecosystem health.
But as many as 250–350 species will require more intensive conservation measures, such as captive breeding programs and habitat restoration, if they are to survive into the next century. For example, prioritizing conservation programs for just 100 of the most unusual threatened birds could save 68% of the variety in bird shapes and sizes. This approach could help to keep ecosystems healthy.
One particularly inspirational conservation triumph that illustrates successful intensive conservation efforts is the California condor, Gymnogyps californianus. With a 9½-foot wingspan, this species is amongst the largest birds in North America. When in flight, this spectacular bird is hard to miss.
But poaching for feathers and eggs, poisoning from consuming lead ammunition in carcasses, and habitat destruction caused the condors' population to crash. By 1987, the entire species – numbering just 22 individuals – was removed from the wild and placed into captive breeding programs at a number of zoos throughout the United States. Meanwhile, lead ammunition for hunting has been either banned or severely restricted, thereby protecting condors as well as other large birds, particularly eagles.
These targeted intensive conservation efforts are paying off: there are more than 350 condors currently living in the wild, with more than 200 individuals in the state of California alone, and over 180 birds (including chicks) living in captivity.
A fledgling California condor (Gymnogyps californianus) spreads her wings to absorb the sun's rays. ... More (Credit: NPS / Gavin Emmons / public domain.)
What is this study's most important take-home message?
'The take-home message of this study is that immediate and ambitious actions to reduce threats to natural populations are essential to prevent avian diversity loss, but threat reduction alone is not enough. Many species will require additional measures such as captive breeding efforts for their survival.'
Source:
Kerry Stewart, Chris Venditti, Carlos P. Carmona, Joanna Baker, Chris Clements, Joseph A. Tobias & Manuela González-Suárez (2025). Threat reduction must be coupled with targeted recovery programmes to conserve global bird diversity, Nature Ecology & Evolution | doi:10.1038/s41559-025-02746-z
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