Iran's nuclear Rorschach test

Politico

18-06-2025

With help from John Sakellariadis, Maggie Miller and Daniel Lippman
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Is Iran close to developing a nuclear weapon with its vast stockpiles of highly enriched uranium? The answer depends on who you ask.
Israeli officials insist that new intelligence, shared with the United States, indicates that Iran was racing to build a nuclear weapon. Their U.S. counterparts are less convinced.
In March, Director of National Intelligence TULSI GABBARD told lawmakers that 'Iran is not building a nuclear weapon,' in line with previous assessments shared under the Biden administration.
So, which is true?
Former U.S. intelligence officials said that two people could be looking at the same intelligence and reach different conclusions as to Iran's intent.
'Unless there is a smoking gun, everything is fragmentary and has to be put together,' said a former senior U.S. intelligence official. The former senior official, like others quoted, was granted anonymity to speak freely about the intelligence analysis process.
Assessments also tend to get very technical very fast when talking about Iran's nuclear program.
Tehran already has two of the three ingredients needed to deliver a nuclear weapon: missiles that could deliver a devastating nuclear warhead to its target and ample quantities of highly enriched uranium. Gabbard testified in March that Iran has unprecedented levels of enriched uranium for a country that is not a nuclear power.
The third component requires advanced scientific and technical know-how to get highly enriched uranium to explode and create a sustained nuclear reaction.
What Iran is capable of and looking to do in this arena is where much of the debate plays out. It's also the part of the process that's fiendishly difficult for foreign intelligence agencies to keep tabs on, as it can be masked as scientific research.
'The nightmare scenario for the last decade is that Iran makes us think that they have stopped work on the weaponization piece, and have found a way to do that completely clandestinely,' said a second former senior intelligence official.
Intelligence analysis is an art, not a science. While Gabbard's topline assessment from March still stands, there is plenty of debate within America's spy agencies about Iran's intentions, a person familiar with the matter told NatSec Daily.
Some parts of the intelligence community, the White House and Capitol Hill believe it's a matter of semantics, the person said, noting that Iran has all of the key components for a nuclear weapons program, even if it has not been formally described as such.
That debate played out in the open on Tuesday when President DONALD TRUMP dismissed Gabbard's remarks in March. 'I don't care what she said,' Trump said. 'I think they were very close to having a weapon.'
'There's a tug of war going on over in the White House,' Sen. TIM KAINE (D-Va.), who sits on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told Eric on Tuesday afternoon. Trump is hearing from both supporters and opponents of military intervention, Kaine argued, 'and that explains why his own comments tend to go back and forth.'
For now, Washington is waiting for Trump to decide what to do with all the information presented to him, including whether to strike Iran. The president told reporters today, 'I may do it. I may not do it.'
'Nobody knows what I'm going to do,' he said.
The Inbox
HYPERSONIC SHOW: Iran launched hypersonic missiles at Israel today, the first time the high-power weapon has been used in the most recent volley of airstrikes between the two countries.
Amid the escalation, the U.S. embassy in Jerusalem announced it is organizing evacuations of American citizens, Eric reports.
WONG'S NEXT MOVE: Former deputy national security adviser ALEX WONG is expected to join the President's Intelligence Advisory Board, two people familiar with the move told our own John Sakellariadis.
The move indicates that Wong — who was ousted from his National Security Council role last month amid the fallout over top officials using the messaging app Signal to discuss military strikes in Yemen — still maintains close ties to the Trump administration.
While low-profile, the PIAB has previously weighed in on hot-button intelligence policy topics, like the reauthorization of a key foreign spy power under JOE BIDEN. It is currently headed by former Republican Rep. DEVIN NUNES, along with other close Trump allies.
A White House spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment on Wong's potential move.
THE MARSHAL MEETS TRUMP: Pakistani Army chief ASIM MUNIR had lunch with Trump at the White House today — a rare occurrence that suggests the Trump administration is looking to mend fences with Islamabad.
The president opting to meet with any foreign military leader is rare, let alone a foreign military leader who is not currently the head of government or head of state of a U.S. ally. Pakistan's ties with Washington have also waned in recent years as the United States has pursued greater cooperation with India as a way to counter China in the Indo-Pacific.
Moreover, the timing of the lunch is auspicious. Pakistan, which borders Iran, would be a critical player in any broader conflict with Iran as a potential entrepot for supplies and weapons for either side. And Pakistan's growing ties with China have led some Iran watchers to warn that Beijing could use Pakistan's territory as a way to funnel resources to Tehran in the event of a longer-term conflict with the United States and Israel.
KELLOGG'S MINSK MISSION: While the administration is mostly focusing on the Middle East these days, Ukraine special envoy KEITH KELLOGG is meeting with Belarusian President ALEKSANDR LUKASHENKO, our own Felicia Schwartz reports.
The overture to the leader of Russia's satellite state is surprising. But it signals the administration's desire to keep lines open with Moscow. Reuters' Gram Slattery and Humeyra Pamuk were the first to report on the planned meeting.
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Keystrokes
TAKES A SIDE: A Chinese government-linked influence effort online is working to spread the narrative that Iran is the dominant force in the conflict between Tehran and Israel, according to a new report from social network analysis company Graphika.
As our own Maggie Miller writes in, Graphika researchers found that influence groups online tied to the Chinese government began almost immediately posting content on Western and Chinese social media platforms after the Israeli attack on Iran last week, promoting narratives on Iran winning the war. These include promoting an artificial intelligence-generated video on X that gives evidence of a successful destructive missile attack on Israel, and Chinese state-linked media posting reports that Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU had fled to Greece during the strikes.
Cyberattacks are also an increasing concern as the conflict continues, and U.S. critical infrastructure owners and operators are on high alert for a surge in Iranian-linked retaliatory attacks, as Maggie reported late Tuesday night.
The Complex
GRILLING HEGSETH: Defense Secretary PETE HEGSETH faced tough questions from both Republican and Democratic members of the Senate Armed Services Committee today about U.S. military plans for conflict with Iran, the deployment of the U.S. military to Los Angeles amid protests and the Pentagon's budget request.
Testifying alongside Joint Chiefs Chair DAN CAINE, the Pentagon chief declined to comment on conversations within the administration about striking Iran. Hegseth also defended the military's deployment to Los Angeles and blasted appeals courts' efforts to limit 'national security policy.' He also faced questions from Sen. Tim Kaine about the renaming of several military bases that previously honored Confederate generals.
Republicans weren't keen to give the Pentagon chief too many lifelines during the hearing. Armed Services Chair ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.) took Hegseth to task for the Pentagon's budget request, saying it 'leads me to question whether some officials in the administration plan to ignore congressional intent.'
Related: Hegseth defers to general on Pentagon's plans for Iran by our own Jack Detsch and Paul McLeary
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — AUKUS ENHANCEMENTS EFFORTS: Lawmakers are looking to help Australia and the U.K. avoid defense manufacturing restrictions as part of the AUKUS pact.
Sens. PETE RICKETTS (R-Neb.) and Kaine introduced the AUKUS Improvement Act today, which would exempt the administration from needing to tell Congress about overseas manufacturing if it involves Australia and the U.K. The bill also lifts a requirement that the State Department grant Third Party Transfer approval for any foreign military sales to State Department-vetted entities that have been approved as AUKUS Authorized Users.
The bill has a good chance of becoming law. AUKUS enjoys widespread bipartisan support and the administration reaffirmed its commitment to the pact to build submarines with the two U.S. allies after meeting with British Prime Minister KEIR STARMER at the G7 summit this week.
Related: EU and Australia to negotiate security and defense partnership by our colleague Giorgio Leali
On the Hill
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — KILLING CAESAR (ACT): Two lawmakers are teaming up to sink a law that helped isolate the regime of former Syrian dictator BASHAR ASSAD to encourage the new government in Damascus to join its camp.
Sens. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) and RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) introduced a bill today that would repeal the 2019 Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, which imposed economic sanctions on Syria. Their bill would remove broad-based sanctions, while preserving some of the provisions in U.S. law that would allow Washington to hold Syrian officials accountable for future human rights abuses.
Shaheen told NatSec Daily that 'we can keep the new Syrian authorities accountable without decimating the economy' and praised Trump's special envoy to Syria, Ambassador TOM BARRACK, for using diplomacy to yield 'tremendous results.'
'We must do everything we can to support the Syrian people's aspirations for democracy, stability and security,' she said.
The bill is likely to pass, as lawmakers on both sides of the aisle pushed the Trump administration in recent months to relax sanctions against Damascus and encouraged the White House's outreach towards Syria's new leader AHMED AL-SHARAA.
Broadsides
CARLSON CHEWS OUT CRUZ: Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas), one of the leading GOP advocates for a military intervention against Iran's nuclear program, sat down with conservative commentator TUCKER CARLSON for an interview. And Cruz didn't pass Carlson's pop quiz about Iran.
As our own Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing reports, Carlson launched a softball at Cruz, asking how many people live in Iran. Cruz didn't know the answer and Carlson took him to task about it: 'You don't know the population of the country you seek to topple? How could you not know that?'
When Cruz shot back that he doesn't 'sit around memorizing population tables,' Carlson got frustrated and proceeded to ask him more specific questions about Iran's demographics.
'You don't know anything about Iran,' Carlson said, as the two men began yelling over each other. 'You're a senator who is calling for the overthrow of the government and you don't know anything about the country!'
The fiery exchange underscores the deep divisions within the Republican Party over the Trump administration's moves in Iran.
Transitions
— The president is tapping Adm. DARYL 'HONEY BADGER' CAUDLE to be the next chief naval officer. Caudle, a career submariner, is currently the commander of U.S. Fleet Forces. He was seen as a leading contender to replace Adm. LISA FRANCHETTI, whom Trump removed from her post earlier this year. The president also nominated Marine Gen. CHRISTOPHER MAHONEY, the assistant commandant of the Marine Corps, to be Vice Chair of the Joint Chiefs. Both will face Senate confirmation before the Armed Services Committee.
— Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine BRIDGET BRINK announced today she's running for Congress as a Democrat in Michigan's Seventh Congressional District. She'll be looking to unseat Rep. TOM BARRETT (R-Mich.) in what's expected to be one of the most expensive and competitive House races of the 2026 cycle.
— Career U.S. intelligence official ADAM JONES is now the National Security Council's senior director for intelligence, three people familiar with the personnel move told John. Jones will fill an influential White House post previously held by BRIAN WALSH, who was ousted this April after Trump's Oval Office meeting with right-wing activist LAURA LOOMER. Jones joined the NSC in recent weeks, according to the three people, all of whom were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive personnel matters. A White House spokesperson declined to comment.
— TODD BENSMAN is now a senior adviser to border czar TOM HOMAN. He most recently was a senior national security fellow at the Center for Immigration Studies.
What to Read
— Nahal Toosi and Eric Bazail-Eimil, POLITICO: State Department unveils social media screening rules for all student visa applicants
— Richard Nephew, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists: The United States may destroy the Fordow enrichment plant. It won't make the Iranian nuclear threat go away
— Afshon Ostovar, Foreign Affairs: How Iran Lost
Friday Today
— Henry L. Stimson Center, 10 a.m.: Iran-Israel War: Update on the Israeli Campaign, Iranian Nuclear Program and the Civilian Toll
— Atlantic Council, 10:30 a.m.: Addressing China's Growing Influence in Colombia
— Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11 a.m.: Getting Started: The New Lee Jae-myung Government
— Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 12 p.m.: The Bigger Picture in the Iran-Israel Conflict: Russia, Missiles, Militias, and More
Thanks to our editors, Rosie Perper and Ester Wells, who should not be named to the President's Intelligence Advisory Board.