Supercross betting, predictions, odds, picks, lines at Philadelphia: Cooper Webb, Chase Sexton basically even
Mud races often defy logic; no one knows that better than Webb. He spent most of the evening in Foxborough's feature outside of the top five until he found his flow on the last lap. Webb was as surprised as everyone else that he covered his -255 odds to score third-place points and extend his advantage over Sexton in the championship hunt. But that does not mean he will necessarily be a good value again this week if the track is as sloppy as it was in New England. Webb's podium odds are slightly more attractive at -218. That is still a stretch.
After failing to stand on the podium for the sixth time this season in Foxborough, Sexton's odds showed significant movement from -221 last week to -186 in Philadelphia. Both Webb and Sexton are among the toughest riders in the field, but they also have the most to lose since they are practically the only racers with a shot at the championship, and that should make them conservative in extreme conditions.
The championship odds between the two remain virtually unchanged, while both have lengthened. The points differential between Webb and Sexton was 498 last week, and heading into Philadelphia, it is 490. Webb is a marked favorite with -691 odds, but for the first time this season, Sexton is also in the minus range at -201. In championship points, only 15 separate these two, which means both riders control their fate with five rounds remaining.
Ken Roczen (+483) remains the third-ranked rider this week and narrowly missed standing on the podium in Foxborough. In fact, he believed he should have had the position and that Webb jumped on a red cross flag; officials sided with Webb's opinion that he was committed to the jump as the flag was employed. Roczen is banged up with a sore shoulder and ankle, but that does not seem to impact his speed.
After winning last week with +1048 opening odds, Aaron Plessinger (+614) joins the list of riders under 10/1 for Philadelphia. His odds have steadily lowered from nearly 30/1 at Daytona to a little more than 6/1 in Philly, but there is still a little juice to be squeezed. With podium odds of only +128, bettors may as well assume the additional risk and wager on the outright win.
PHILADELPHIA LONGSHOTS
Justin Barcia (+2236) is another rider known for his prowess on sloppy tracks. And there were moments when it appeared he would excel in Foxborough. Barcia set the fastest lap in qualification, and he was in a podium position early in the main until he got swallowed up by the mud on Lap 4. Barcia earned his second top-five of the season, but since he failed to achieve the podium, his odds of a top-three finish are relatively attractive at 3/1.
Justin Cooper (+2126) needs to be considered every week. He has ridden well enough that all it will take to put him on top of the box is a great start and a little luck. Cooper has the best average finish among winless riders with a 6.5 compared to Barcia's 7.6, and with one podium and five top-fives to his credit, Cooper keeps putting himself in position for a miracle to happen. If the Philadelphia race is dry, Cooper has the best chance at becoming the season's eighth 450 winner.
Outright Winner Odds
Cooper Webb, +165
Chase Sexton, +190
Ken Roczen, +483
Aaron Plessinger, +614
Justin Cooper, +2126
Justin Barcia, +2236
Malcolm Stewart, +2387
Dylan Ferrandis, +5635
Logan Leitzel, +5845
Justin Hill, +14878
Colt Nichols, +14878
Christian Craig, +14878
Joey Savatgy, +14878
Shane McElrath, +14878
Benny Bloss, +14878
Mitchell Oldenburg, +14878
Kyle Chisholm, +14878
Tristan Lane, +16238
Bubba Pauli, +16238
Logan Karnow, +16238
Jerry Robin, +16238
Grant Harlan, +16238
Hunter Schlosser, +16238
Justin Starling, +16238
Podium Odds
Cooper Webb, -218
Chase Sexton, -186
Ken Roczen, +110
Aaron Plessinger, +128
Justin Barcia, +300
Justin Cooper, +311
Malcolm Stewart, +355
Dylan Ferrandis, +564
Logan Leitzel, +566
Justin Hill, +928
Shane McElrath, +1052
Christian Craig, +1204
Joey Savatgy, +1219
Colt Nichols, +1259
Benny Bloss, +1546
Mitchell Oldenburg, +1875
Bubba Pauli, +2771
Kyle Chisholm, +2954
Mitchell Harrison, +3399
Jerry Robin, +3591
Kevin Moranz, +3971
Grant Harlan, +4046
Justin Starling, +4262
Anthony Rodriguez, +4319
More SuperMotocross News
Eli Tomac back on bike, eyes May return
What riders said after Foxborough
Foxborough Recap | 450 Results | 250 Results
Jason Anderson to miss remainder of SX
Joey Savatgy returns to SX in Foxborough
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Foxborough Supercross preview
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