Hurricane season forecast complication: The Atlantic has cooled
Meteorologists keeping a close watch on ocean temperatures in the Atlantic say it isn't as hot as it's been in recent years:
"A large patch of the eastern Atlantic Ocean isn't quite keeping up to the typical rate of warming for this time of year and that has experts questioning what, if any, impacts there might be this hurricane season," said Weather.com meteorologist Jonathan Belles in an online forecast.
Another expert, Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach told USA TODAY that "Tropical sea-surface temperatures are thankfully much cooler than they were last year at this time."
How much cooler is the Atlantic?
In fact, on average, sea-surface temperatures are almost 2 degrees cooler than this time in 2024, he said. That may not sound like much, but in the world of meteorology, it's a significant difference that can affect hurricane formation.
"That's obviously good news for Atlantic hurricane potential, but overall, sea-surface temperatures are still a bit above normal overall," Klotzbach said.
What about location?
Klotzbach said ocean temperatures are a bit warmer than normal in the Caribbean Sea and eastern subtropical Atlantic and a bit cooler than normal in the eastern tropical Atlantic.
Overall, though, "thankfully, sea-surface temperature anomalies are WAY cooler than they were last year at this time. They were downright scary in late April of 2024."
The preseason predictions in 2024 called for a hyperactive season with dozens of storms possible. While the season finished above average, it wasn't quite as active as had been foreseen, with a total of 18 storms.
This is because other factors also influence hurricane formation, such as dry air or dust in the atmosphere, the presence of El Niño or La Niña, along with long periods of sinking air or strong wind shear, Belles said. All of these "can change the path that hurricane season takes each year," he said.
What does this year's forecast say?
Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1. According to the most recent forecast from Colorado State University released in early April, another active season is likely with as many as 17 storms expected.
Of those 17 storms, researchers forecast that nine will become hurricanes. A typical year averages about 14 tropical storms, with seven of them spinning into hurricanes, based on weather records from 1991 to 2020.
Colorado State will provide an updated forecast in early June. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast comes out later in May.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane season forecast complication: The ocean has cooled
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