ASEAN+3 Growth Forecast Trimmed Amid Tariff Risks, But Outlook Seen Remaining Resilient
By Nur Ashikin Abdul Aziz
SINGAPORE, July 23 (Bernama) -- The ASEAN+3 region is projected to grow at 3.8 per cent in 2025 and 3.6 per cent in 2026, according to the latest ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) quarterly update by the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO).
ASEAN+3 refers to the ASEAN member states plus China, Japan, and South Korea.
AMRO chief economist Dong He said that although these projections represented a downward revision from the April forecast, primarily due to the impact of rising US tariffs, the region continues to demonstrate fundamental resilience, supported by proactive policy responses.
'Encouragingly, the ASEAN+3 region enters this period of global trade turbulence from a position of relative strength and resilience. Most regional policymakers have acted early to cushion the impact of the trade shock, and policy space remains available for further support if needed,' he said in a statement on the release of the report.
AMRO said the economic outlook remains clouded by significant uncertainties, with escalating US tariffs posing the most salient risk. 'Ongoing geopolitical tensions add layer of complexity, while a sharper-than-expected economic slowdown in the US and Europe, coupled with prolonged high US interest rates, could further dampen growth prospects,' it noted.
On a more positive note, inflation across the region continues to moderate, despite a temporary spike in oil prices driven by tensions in the Middle East. Financial markets have also shown resilience, with regional currencies generally appreciating against the US dollar amid growing market concerns over US policy uncertainty.
Meanwhile, Dong He emphasised the urgency of deeper regional integration to build resilience against external shocks and create new growth opportunities. 'ASEAN+3's collective economic weight - representing nearly one-third of global GDP - combined with deepening regional integration and established crisis management frameworks, provides a robust foundation for navigating current global challenges,' he told Bernama.
He also highlighted the critical role of the Plus Three economies in underpinning ASEAN regional dynamics. 'China's accommodative policies and role as the region's largest final demand market provide important stability for ASEAN supply chains,' he said, adding that Japan and South Korea remain key technology providers and major investors in the region.
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'Upon his death, those assets would not be included in his estate because they were already placed in trust during his lifetime. 'The trustee would then distribute the assets to the child according to the terms of the trust, and other heirs could not challenge it because legally, the assets no longer belonged to the deceased at the time of death,' he says, adding that trusts usually involve costs and require professional management. 'Wills can be challenged' Explaining that Muslims can also consider making a will, Mahmud says this is permissible within certain limits, one of which is that only up to one-third of the estate (after deducting debts) can be given to non-heirs. Additionally, a will cannot include faraid heirs – unless with the consent of all other heirs. A will is a written or verbal declaration by someone about how their assets should be distributed after death and it only takes effect upon their passing. 'If the will exceeds the legal limit, or is made in favour of a faraid heir without the consent of others, it can be challenged. 'Any portion exceeding one-third will revert to faraid distribution, and any bequest to an heir without consent will be invalid, unless all other heirs agree to it. 'For Muslims, a will must be validated by the Syariah Court via a will confirmation order, whereas for non-Muslims, the probate process must be conducted in the Civil Court before assets can be distributed. 'Wills take time and may be contested if there are questions about their validity,' he adds. 'Documents must be complete' To ensure a hibah is strong and less likely to be challenged, Mahmud says both the giver and the recipient must make sure that its documentation is clear and complete. It should include details such as the identities of the giver and the recipient; a description of the asset to be given as gift; declarations of the offer and acceptance; signatures; and witnesses. He also says the hibah documents must be free of ambiguity and meet all requirements of Islamic law and existing regulations. 'It's always better for a hibah to be done in writing – rather than verbally – as written documents serve as strong proof of intention and mutual consent. 'Moreover, anyone planning to gift assets through hibah is encouraged to seek Syariah Court confirmation and prepare formal documentation. 'Confirmation from the Syariah Court (via a hibah confirmation order) certifies the validity of the hibah under Islamic law and makes it binding on other heirs. 'It's also advisable for the hibah giver to seek professional advice from a syariah lawyer, religious institution officer or estate planning consultant before and during the process,' he says, adding that the experts can ensure no technical aspects are overlooked, such as in the case of property, whether or not it is still under mortgage; or if there is a need to obtain bank consent; or for takaful hibah, whether or not the correct nomination procedures have been followed. Conditional hibah Al-Isra' Group associate manager Reefa Shahidah Mohd Razali, meanwhile, believes that the issue of takaful hibah being disputed in court would not arise if its implementation followed the existing legal framework under IFSA 2013. She explains that the hibah used in the current takaful industry is 'conditional hibah' – a direct gift made by the policyholder to the nominated recipient in the takaful certificate. Reefa Shahidah Mohd Razali 'There's no basis for accusing takaful agents of misleading clients because the implementation of this hibah is based on valid legal provisions under IFSA 2013, specifically Schedule 10, which outlines the hibah instrument. 'Hibah management in today's takaful differs from older plans that existed before IFSA 2013. 'Before the Act was enforced, most plans used the concept of 'wasi' (trustee), not absolute ownership-based hibah. 'That's why there was confusion in the past – it was not clearly stated whether the gift to heirs was through hibah or wasi. 'Today, it's clear. In current takaful plans, conditional hibah is valid and legally grounded,' she points out, adding that hibah nominations are valid and cannot be contested unless there is an element of fraud or breach of contract. 'Everything is based on the law. 'In fact, we encourage clients to fully understand the concept of conditional hibah before signing any policy.' — Bernama
