'It could really hurt him': The MAGA storm over Trump's calls on Epstein and Ukraine
If Trump continues to alienate his base, it could have repercussions for him in next year's midterm elections, experts say.
Why are some Republicans angry with Trump over the Jeffrey Epstein case? One key theory centres on a rumoured client list of individuals who committed sex offences alongside Epstein. The Trump administration has insisted that no such list exists. Skeptics also allege suspicious circumstances in Epstein's death such as the security cameras around his cell apparently malfunctioning on the night he died, alongside other irregularities. The US Justice Department and the Federal Bureau of Investigation said in a memo made public last week there was no evidence that the disgraced financier kept a "client list" or was blackmailing powerful figures. It was met by calls for the heads of each agency to resign. Also falling flat was an almost 11-hour video published this month to dispel theories Epstein was murdered.
The camera angle showed a section of the New York prison on the night Epstein died, but appeared to be missing a minute of footage, fuelling more speculation online.
"What's going on with my 'boys' and, in some cases, 'gals?' They're all going after attorney-general Pam Bondi, who is doing a fantastic job!" Trump said on the weekend in a lengthy post on his Truth Social platform. "We're on one Team, MAGA, and I don't like what's happening." But his pleas have done little to convince some Republicans to drop the issue. Kentucky Republican Thomas Massie said he would lodge a discharge petition to force a vote in the US House of Representatives on releasing the complete Epstein files. In his re-run for president, Trump said he would "probably" release files related to the case. A bundle was released in February but contained little new information. Amid the backlash, Trump has said he supports the release of any "credible" files related to Epstein but has also dismissed the case as "pretty boring stuff." Georgia congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, a far-right Republican and staunch Trump ally, told The New York Times, "no-one should accept" Trump's decision not to release files related to the case.
"It's a full reversal on what was all said beforehand, and people are just not willing to accept it," she said.
South Carolina Republican Nancy Mace told The New York Times she has been inundated with questions from angry voters demanding more transparency from the Trump administration regarding the case. Mike Johnson, the Republican speaker of the House, has not followed Trump's line on the issue and has instead urged the justice department to make public any documents linked to Epstein. Meanwhile, Democrats have seized on the rift between Trump and his party by demanding his administration publish the full evidence held by prosecutors in their case against Epstein. Conservative talk show host and another Trump ally, Tucker Carlson, also criticised the US government over the Epstein files. "The fact that the US government, the one that I voted for, refused to take my question seriously and instead said: 'Case closed, shut up conspiracy theorist', was too much for me," the former Fox News host said. "And I don't think the rest of us should be satisfied with that."
In 2019, Trump suggested Epstein's death was a cover-up and called for a full investigation, and now his supporters are angry, alleging he's effectively shutting the possibility down.
Wesley Widmaier, professor of international relations at The Australian National University (ANU), said the Epstein files represent the "straw that broke the camel's back in MAGA-land". "You have the ' Big Beautiful Bill' , which, while Trump campaigns as a populist, is very regressive, and it's very much Ronald Reagan and George W Bush's republicanism, all those things are hard to understand or hard to, it doesn't hit a lot of people where they live. But Jeffrey Epstein, people can understand the issues — he's an elite," he told SBS News. "Trump ran an unconventional policy that depended on mobilising an impassioned base, an anti-political base. And if he's seen as part of the political system in the context of this Epstein stuff, it could really hurt him." Widmaier said the discontent among Trump's supporters could hurt his voting base at the midterm elections next year.
"If he loses the base, forget it, then you're looking at substantial gains for the Democrats, although there's no point predicting anything in July 2025 about October 2026," he said.
Why is there anger with Trump over the Ukraine weapons deal? This week, Trump gave Russia 50 days to agree to a peace deal before facing 100 percent tariffs on countries that purchase from Russia. He also announced the US would send "top-of-the-line weapons" to Ukraine via NATO countries — a move that has drawn condemnation from Greene and others, like Representative Eli Crane of Arizona. Other members of the MAGA movement, such as ex-Trump strategist Steve Bannon, have also condemned the decision to send weapons to Ukraine.
"We're about to arm people we have literally no control over," Bannon said of Ukraine on his podcast. "This is old-fashioned, grinding war in the bloodlands of Europe — and we're being dragged into it."
John Hart, a US politics expert from ANU, said Trump has tried to get around the fact that he committed not to sell weapons to Ukraine by arguing that he's selling them to NATO, but this is unlikely to convince the conservatives. "It is the first sign of a serious split, and it's serious simply because Trump is governing as an authoritarian leader and autocrat who believes that the whole Republican party in Congress is there to serve his interests," he said. But Hart acknowledged that despite dissatisfaction with Trump, MAGA Republicans have nowhere else to go. "It's just hard to say what Trump's support will look like long-term because the American government is so turbulent at the moment. Trump is basically all over the place on virtually every aspect of public policy that it's difficult to see what longer-term impact this will have." With additional reporting by Agence France-Presse. Readers seeking crisis support can ring Lifeline on 13 11 14 or text 0477 13 11 14, the Suicide Call Back Service on 1300 659 467 and Kids Helpline on 1800 55 1800 (for young people aged up to 25). More information and support with mental health is available at beyondblue.org.au and on 1300 22 4636.
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