Why China may find it hard to play peacemaker in India-Pakistan conflict

The Star

09-05-2025

The escalation of the conflict between India and Pakistan has exposed the limits of China's role as a Global South leader and peace broker, and it leaves Beijing with difficult choices to make, analysts say.
India claims that it launched missiles and deadly attacks on nine sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir on Wednesday morning in retaliation for what it believes was an Islamabad-backed militant attack on April 22.
Pakistan said it shot down five Indian Air Force jets and a drone in response.
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China expressed 'regret' over India's attacks on Pakistan and called for restraint, urging the two neighbours to 'avoid taking actions that would further complicate the situation'.
Foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian told reporters that China was 'willing to continue its constructive role in alleviating the current regional tensions' but did not say if Beijing was in contact with New Delhi or Islamabad.
Indian leaders gathered for a security meeting on Wednesday afternoon, as countries around the world called for a de-escalation of the conflict and a diplomatic solution to the crisis.
According to analysts, China is not likely to take the lead on negotiations between Hindu-majority India and Muslim-majority Pakistan, which have been locked in a decades-long dispute over the Kashmir region.
Lin Minwang, a professor with the Centre for South Asian Studies at Fudan University, said China would 'hardly be able to lead the negotiations'.
While Beijing had sought to position itself as a peace broker in recent years, especially among Global South countries, Lin said its 'very good relations' with Pakistan put it in 'an awkward position'.
'India will think that China will definitely stand on the side of Pakistan,' he said. 'Another factor is that India always thinks that it is of similar size to China, and that it is on the same level as China, so it will hardly accept China playing a mediating role.'
He added that if there was further escalation from India it would draw condemnation not just from China but also from the United Nations Security Council.
China and India are regional rivals but they also have unresolved border disputes going back decades, despite agreeing to end a four-year military stand-off last year.
China and Pakistan, meanwhile, have expanded security cooperation and their 'ironclad friendship', and China is Pakistan's main weapons supplier.
Pradeep Taneja, a senior lecturer in Asian studies at the University of Melbourne, said given that China was the 'key backer of Pakistan' diplomatically, 'if this conflict escalates into a full-blown war between India and Pakistan, then China obviously would be affected by it, in the sense that China will have to take clear positions'.
He said it would 'certainly complicate' China's stance due to India being the more important economic partner of its two neighbours, and their cooperation in 'defending the Global South'.
Beijing has stepped up diplomatic efforts in the region and the Global South, including New Delhi, as Washington has imposed tariffs on countries around the world. India, however, has raised concerns over an increasing trade deficit with China and the 'dumping' of Chinese goods since the US hit China with punishing tariffs.
Domestic terrorism concerns were also a factor in China's response to the India-Pakistan conflict, according to Jagannath Panda, head of the Stockholm Centre for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs at the Institute for Security and Development Policy in Sweden.
'China faces concerns as well as threats from radical outfits of the Uygurs, which have stronger linkages with some of the terrorist outfits that are being operated and sponsored by Pakistan from its soil,' Panda said.
'China will be caught in a delicate situation not to overreact to India's 'Operation Sindoor' against the Pakistani-sponsored terrorist outfits,' he said. 'China's response ... will test the character of Beijing – if it still wants to improve China-India relations vis-a-vis Pakistan.'
In October, Chinese President Xi Jinping met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the first time in five years. They agreed to improve ties, including resuming direct flights between the two nations, but progress has been slow.
No militant group has claimed responsibility for the April 22 attack on 26 tourists in the disputed district of Pahalgam. India accused Pakistan of indirectly supporting the attack, a claim Islamabad strongly denied.
The UNSC at an emergency meeting on Monday repeated its condemnation of the Pahalgam attack and urged India and Pakistan to 'exercise calm and restraint, to de-escalate tensions, and to resolve their differences peacefully'.
Panda said Beijing had taken a 'stronger yet selective position' on countering terrorism-related resolutions at the UN, and the world would expect it to show a 'stronger willingness to deal with terrorism' as a permanent member of the UNSC.
But he said given Beijing's strategic interest in Kashmir affairs it would continue to support Islamabad and that 'shouldn't surprise New Delhi'.
Liu Zongyi, director of the Centre for South Asia Studies at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, said he believed China had 'actively' engaged with diplomats from both India and Pakistan.
'Whether peace can be negotiated depends largely on the attitude of India,' he said, noting that it was not in India's interests to go to war with Pakistan.
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