Nifty 50, Sensex today: What to expect from Indian stock market in trade on July 1 after Wall Street rally

Mint

a day ago

The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open flat on Tuesday, tracking mixed global market cues.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a flattish start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 25,630 level, a premium of nearly 15 points from the Nifty futures' previous close.
On Monday, the domestic equity market benchmark indices ended its four-day gaining streak to close lower amid profit booking.
The Sensex dropped 452.44 points, or 0.54%, to close at 83,606.46, while the Nifty 50 settled 120.75 points, 0.47%, lower at 25,517.05.
Here's what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50, and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex formed a bearish candle on daily charts, indicating temporary weakness.
'The short-term market outlook remains positive. We believe that 83,500 will act as a key level to watch. Below 83,500, we could see a further correction towards 83,200 - 83,000. On the flip side, a sustained move above 83,500 could push Sensex up to 83,900. Further upside may also continue, potentially lifting the index to 84,200,' said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities.
Nifty 50 declined 120.75 points, and formed a bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart.
'The broader setup remains encouraging as Nifty 50 comfortably holds above the 9-day and 20-day EMAs, both of which continue to slope upward, highlighting the strength of the prevailing trend. The index witnessed a mild pullback from the upper resistance zone near 25,660 – 25,685, aligning with the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement. The daily RSI for Nifty 50 has eased slightly to 63, remaining in a healthy zone, which suggests that momentum remains intact without any signs of exhaustion,' said Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities.
According to him, the support is now seen at 25,350 – 25,300, a zone that previously acted as a breakout area and now stands as a re-entry level for fresh accumulation. Unless this level is breached decisively, he believes any short-term pullback may provide a buying opportunity.
'With the higher-high formations remaining intact and no major breakdown signs, the outlook remains positive as we enter the July series. A sustained move above 25,700 could reignite bullish momentum, with the next upside levels up to 25,900 - 25,970,' Mehra said.
Dr. Praveen Dwarakanath, Vice President of Hedged.in, noted that the Nifty 50 has closed below the upper Bollinger band indicating a pause in the rally at the current levels.
'The pause can likely be the profit booking after a breakout from the 25,200 levels. The index closing above day's low is a clear sign of a further rally. The ADX DI+ line is sloping downside and the ADX DI- line sloping upside, indicating signs of weakness in the index, in yesterday's fall. The momentum indicators are in the over-bought region which can also be the reason for the fall,' said Dwarakanath.
According to VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today, the Nifty 50 index formed a bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart, while its RSI at 62.
'This movement suggests moderate buying opportunities on dips. However, it is best to avoid selling on rises until we reach a fresh high, as the major trend remains bullish, and Nifty 50 is just 3% away from its all-time high. I recommend adopting neutral trading strategies in index derivatives for a couple of days. We can expect Nifty 50 to find support between 25,300 and 25,200, and meet resistance near 25,650 and 25,870 in today's trading session,' Ambala said.
Bank Nifty index ended 131.15 points, or 0.23%, lower at 57,312.75, forming a narrow-bodied bearish candle on the daily chart, reflecting mild profit booking at elevated levels.
'Despite the minor pullback, the Bank Nifty index maintained a higher high–higher low formation, suggesting a phase of time-wise consolidation amidst stock-specific traction. The index is currently perched above its immediate support zone of 57,000 – 56,800. Sustaining above this demand zone will keep the short-term bias constructive, paving the way for a potential move towards 58,500 — a level derived from the measured move projection of the recent consolidation band between 56,000 and 53,500,' said Bajaj Broking Market.
Conversely, a breach below 56,800 may trigger a corrective consolidation of the recent upswing, with the index likely oscillating within a broader consolidation zone of 56,000 – 57,600, said the brokerage firm.
'Structural support is recalibrated to the 56,000 – 55,800 region, representing a confluence of key technical indicators — including the 50-day EMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally (55,149 - 57,614),' Bajaj Broking Market added.
Om Mehra highlighted that the Bank Nifty index is holding firmly above all the short and medium-term moving averages, and its rise is offering support to the ongoing uptrend. The slope of the Bollinger Band has turned upward, suggesting expansion in price range and rising volatility.
'The daily RSI stands at 66, hovering below the key 70 mark, reflecting a strong, yet not overheated momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD has entered positive territory, supported by an advancing histogram. The index may see a shallow retracement toward the 57,000 - 56,800 zone, which is expected to act as immediate support. Any dip toward this zone is likely to attract fresh buying interest as long as the structure remains above 56,300 on a closing basis,' Mehra said.
With the broader participation from PSU banks and a strong setup in momentum indicators, the bullish tone stays intact in Nifty Bank index. A decisive close above 57,620 could pave the way for a fresh leg towards higher levels at 58,200 and beyond, he added.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.