Will a hurricane impact your state in 2025? Odds get an update.
Instead of nine hurricanes forming in the Atlantic basin in 2025, the new forecast calls for 8. An average season sees seven.
"The primary reason for the slight decrease in the outlook is both observed and predicted high levels of Caribbean shear," the forecast said. In this context, forecasters are referring to wind shear, upper-level winds that act to tear developing storms apart.
"High levels of Caribbean shear in June/July are typically associated with less active hurricane seasons," the forecast said.
But don't let your guard down: Overall, the team still says a total of 16 named tropical storms will form in 2025 (this includes the three that have already formed: Andrea, Barry and Chantal). Additionally, forecasters wrote, "we anticipate a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline."
The forecast includes a state-by-state look at hurricane risk. Those calculations predict the chances of a storm passing within 50 miles of the state.
Per usual, the highest risk is in Florida, which faces a 90% chance of being impacted by a tropical storm and a 62% chance of being impacted by a hurricane.
Will your state be impacted by a hurricane? Here's what to know about the risk in 2025, according to the new outlook:
In Alabama, there's a 64% storm chance and a 32% hurricane chance. There is also a 10% chance of a major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of Alabama, according to CSU experts.
There is a 25% storm chance and 9% hurricane chance in Connecticut.
More: Tropical Storm Chantal weakens to a depression as it moves across Carolinas
There is a 26% storm chance and 7% hurricane chance in Delaware.
In Florida, there is a 90% storm chance and a 62% hurricane chance. There is also a 33% chance of a major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of the state.
There is a 69% storm chance and a 35% hurricane chance in Georgia.
In Louisiana, there is a 72% storm chance and a 43% hurricane chance. There is also a 17% chance of a major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of Louisiana.
In Maine, there is a 25% storm chance and 8% hurricane chance.
In Maryland, there is a 35% storm chance and 13% hurricane chance.
There is a 37% storm chance and a 17% hurricane chance in Massachusetts.
There is a 59% storm chance and a 32% hurricane chance in Mississippi.
In New Hampshire, there is a 21% storm chance and 6% hurricane chance.
In New Jersey, there is a 26% storm chance and 8% hurricane chance.
There is a 30% storm chance and an 11% hurricane chance in New York.
There is a 74% storm chance and a 43% hurricane chance in North Carolina.
There is a 23% storm chance and 9% hurricane chance in Rhode Island.
In South Carolina, there is a 63% storm chance and a 33% hurricane chance.
In Texas, there is a 67% storm chance and 41% hurricane chance, as well as an 18% chance of a major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of the state.
There is a 51% storm chance and a 23% hurricane chance in Virginia.
Hurricane season officially began June 1. The six-month season lasts until Nov. 30.
Colorado State researchers said there's a 48% chance of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere along the U.S. coastline. The average, based on records from 1880 to 2020, is 43%.
A major hurricane has wind speeds of at least 111 mph.
The chances for a landfall are greater along the Gulf Coast (31%) than they are along the East Coast (25%).
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Top hurricane outlook lists new state-by-state hurricane risk
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
.png&w=3840&q=100)
Miami Herald
4 hours ago
- Miami Herald
A brewing tropical system in North Florida prompts flood watch in South Florida
South Florida could see some street flooding Monday and Tuesday, thanks to a potential tropical system brewing near the north end of the state. The Miami office of the National Weather Service called for a flood watch — when there's a chance of flooding but it's not yet happening — for Monday afternoon and Tuesday in urban southeast Florida. 'Regardless of how the disturbance evolves, widespread 1-3' of rain are expected across South Florida between today and Thursday morning, with a reasonable worst case scenario for isolated locations of 5-7' or more,' the NWS said early Monday. The heaviest of those rains are expected Monday afternoon through late evening. The moisture sparking all that rain is attached to a low-pressure system drifting off the northeast coast of Florida this weekend. The National Hurricane Center predicts it will cross the state in the next day or so and form in the Gulf around Tuesday — potentially as a tropical depression. As of Monday morning, the NHC gave the system a 30% chance of developing in the next seven days and a 10% chance of strengthening in the next day. For now, weather models continue to show the system developing into a weak and broad depression toting plenty of rain. 'The amount of development will probably depend on how far offshore it stays,' Andy Hazelton, an associated scientist at the University of Miami, posted on X. 'I think it's worth keeping an eye on trends for this one..' A very similar setup last week led to the third named storm of the season, Tropical Storm Chantal, which came ashore in North Carolina with deadly flooding that claimed several lives. The next name on the list is Dexter.
Newsweek
5 hours ago
- Newsweek
Tropical Storm Map Tracks Storms Off Four States
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are monitoring a disturbance off the U.S. Coast that they say has a 30 percent chance of developing into a cyclone this week. Why It Matters The Atlantic Hurricane season has seen three named systems so far in 2025: Andrea, Barry, and Chantal. Chantal brought heavy rain and flooding to North Carolina earlier this month, with up to nine inches of rain falling within 24 hours in some parts of the state. What To Know The NHC said on Monday a low-pressure system positioned off the northern Florida Atlantic coast was generating disorganized showers and thunderstorms over parts of Florida, the northwestern Bahamas, and nearby Atlantic waters. This NHC map highlights the area in question. This NHC map highlights the area in question. National Hurricane Center This system is expected to track westward across Florida over the next day or so, reaching the northeastern Gulf by late Tuesday, the agency said. "Environmental conditions appear favorable enough to support some gradual development of this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the northeastern and north-central portions of the Gulf during the middle to latter part of this week," the NHC said. "Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf coast through the middle to latter portion of this week." The NHC said the disturbance had a 10 percent chance of formation over the next 48 hours, and a 30 percent chance of formation over the next seven days. Earlier this year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasted above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin for 2025. The agency said it expected between 13 and 19 named storms this year. Of these, between six and 10 would be hurricanes, it said, with three to five major hurricanes, adding it had a "70 percent confidence in these ranges." What People Are Saying Meteorologist Jake Lambright said on X, Monday: "FIRST ALERT: The National Hurricane Center maintains a LOW chance for tropical development; however, they have raised the probabilities. There is a 10% chance of tropical development within the next 48 hrs & a 30% chance over the next seven days." Meteorologist Kristin Walla said on X, Sunday: "The National Hurricane Center is continuing to monitor an area of interest in the northeastern Gulf. It has a low chance of development over the next 7 days. "This will be something for us to calmly watch but not necessarily worry about over the coming days." What Happens Next Forecasters will continue to monitor conditions and provide updates as the system develops. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June through November. Meanwhile, the Eastern Pacific hurricane season began on May 15 and lasts until November 30.
USA Today
7 hours ago
- USA Today
'Don't drown': Timeline of the Guadalupe River flooding disaster
In the early days of July, pieces of weather systems were converging to create a disaster over Texas Hill Country that would transform the Guadalupe River into a monster raging out of its banks in the pre-dawn hours of July 4, claiming the lives of more than 129 people. At least 160 are still missing. The hours leading up to the tragedy, and the actions taken to protect the lives of those in the water's hellish fury, are critical to understanding what happened and whether more could have been done in the name of safety. Through a National Weather Service messaging service with emergency management officials and broadcast meteorologists, U.S. Geological Survey data and other records, USA TODAY has pieced together a timeline of the calamity on the Guadalupe. As early as July 1, the National Weather Service began warning of the potential for heavy rains. Bits of Tropical Storm Barry, which dissipated over eastern Mexico on June 30 but were still loaded with rain after their journey over the warm Bay of Campeche, were moving into Texas. Tropical moisture from the eastern Pacific, which has been cranking out storms this summer, also was moving into the region. By July 2, the weather service began warning that Hill Country could continue to see showers and isolated storms "well into Friday morning." In the end, a terrible deluge, greater than anyone expected, fell over the steep hills and rugged terrain, delivering up to 20 inches of rain over three days in some parts of the region. In the headwaters of the Guadalupe River, where its North and South forks converge west of Hunt, Texas, the rain flowed down hills and rushed into the river, surprising homeowners, campers and vacationers. "It's hard to believe the devastation," President Donald Trump said Friday as he visited the flooded region. "We are grieving with you," said First Lady Melania. "Our nation is grieving with you." The geological survey maintains gauges in the river that track the surface height of the water. Even though the reported measurements are still considered preliminary, they provide the clearest picture of the river's explosive rise. Here are the hours leading up to the disaster: 7:38 a.m., July 3 Slow-moving convective storms may rain over and over in the same location and cause flash flooding in the Hill Country region of Texas, advises the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center. 10 a.m., July 3 Weather service meteorologists join a Zoom call with more than a dozen state and local emergency management officials to discuss the rain and forecast. It isn't known whether Kerr County officials were on the call. What Texas cities flooded? Here's where the most rain fell over the Independence Day weekend 12:17 p.m., July 3 Storms are increasingly blanketing south-central Texas, says the weather service office in Austin/San Antonio, adding it's "closely monitoring for the potential of locally heavy rain today and tonight." 1:24 p.m., July 3 The weather service says it will issue a flood watch for parts of South Central Texas, including Hill Country and the Rio Grande, because of the "abundant tropical moisture in place and the potential for heavy rain this afternoon into the evening and into the overnight hours." 3:39 p.m., July 3 A Flood Watch through 7 a.m. is posted on the weather service office Facebook page, for western Hill Country, the Rio Grande and the southern portion of the Edwards Plateau. The plateau is an elevated region formed from marine deposits such as limestone and sandstone when the area was covered by an ocean some 100 million years ago. Moments earlier, the Texas Division of Emergency Management posted a news release on Facebook, announcing it had activated its emergency operations center and adding resources ahead of expected heavy rainfall and flash flooding threats over the holiday weekend. 6:10 p.m., July 3 In a weather discussion, the prediction center says it's seeing "concerning trends for back-building and training thunderstorms" over the Texas Hill Country that could produce more than 3 inches of rain an hour, thanks to a bit of Barry's leftover circulation. High levels of moisture, a "quite unstable" atmosphere, and a jet of winds could all contribute to heavier rain. Given the prolific rainfall potential, the weather service says "locally considerable flash flooding this evening is possible." 7:09 p.m. to 7:14 p.m., July 3 In response to a request from Bexar County, the weather service says some models bring moderate to heavy rain across the northwest part of the Bexar, while others keep the activity over the southern Edwards Plateau. Moments later, the weather service says it expects shower and thunderstorm activity to increase over the next 3 to 4 hours , with some models suggesting the heaviest rain potential across the southern portion of the plateau. 7:45 p.m., July 3 In Kerrville, one of the gauges in the Guadalupe River first begins to detect a slight rise in the water level. 7:51 p.m., July 3 In an "URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED," the weather service expands the flood watch to Bexar, Kendall, Gillespie and Llano counties through 7 a.m. on July 4, and says isolated amounts of 5 to 7 inches of rain are possible. 9:34 p.m., July 3 "Pockets of heavy rain are affecting Kendall County and then heading to parts of Gillespie and Blanco Counties," the weather service states, which could add to the 1 to 2 inches that have fallen over some areas in 3 hours. 11:13 p.m., July 3 A flood advisory posts for Bandera County, Kerr County's neighbor to the south, after 1 to 2 inches of rain, with additional rainfall moving in. 11:41 p.m., July 3 Weather service upgrades to a flash flood warning for Bandera County because it's seeing rain potential of 5 to 7 inches near Tarpley. Soon after, a rain gauge near Tarpley shows 2.68 inches of rain in 45 minutes. 12:26 a.m., July 4 Areas of flash flooding will be likely across Central Texas overnight with "very heavy rainfall" expected, with hourly rainfall in excess of 2 to 3 inches and six-hour totals over 6 inches, the Weather Prediction Center announces. It warns of "training" (rain in the same place again and again) over Bandera and San Saba counties, and southeast of San Angelo. "These areas of heavy rainfall are expected to result in a few areas of flash flooding through the overnight, some of which may become locally significant." 12:56 a.m., July 4 Storms are beginning to merge over central Kerr County and will be an area to watch for potential flash flooding, the weather service says. 1 a.m. to 1:14 a.m., July 4 The Guadalupe River at a gauge above Bear Creek near Kerrville begins to rise. The weather service issues "a Flash Flood Warning" for northwest Bandera County into central Kerr County. 1:20 a.m., July 4 The USGS gauge on the Guadalupe River at Hunt, Texas shows the river's flow increasing and water height creeping upward. The water rises about a tenth of a foot in 25 minutes. 1:30 a.m., July 4 The USGS gauge on Guadalupe at Kerrville has risen 6 inches in 2.5 hours, reaching a height of .84 feet at the gauge. 1:48 a.m., July 4 Rain rates have increased across south-central Kerr County, with an estimated 2 to 4 inches of rain so far, the weather service says. "Flooding is likely to begin in the warned area if it hasn't already." " It advises officials and broadcast meteorologists to push the reminder "Turn Around, Don't Drown," especially in the hills at night, when it is harder to recognize the depth of the water over a road. 2:20 a.m., July 4 The Guadalupe gauge at Hunt shows a rise of .84 feet in an hour. Its flow in cubic feet per second is 30 times faster. 2:28 a.m., July 4 The radar estimates 2 to 5 inches of rain has fallen in south-central Kerr County, the weather service says. "Flash flooding has likely begun." 3:00 a.m., July 4 At the River Inn Resort in Hunt, Texas, the manager wakes up Randy and Mollie Schaffer, banging on their door and telling them to evacuate immediately because the river is "about to overflow its banks," Randy Schaffer wrote later in a Facebook post. (The Schaffers evacuated but their SUV was swept into the current. He escaped the raging waters, but lost his beloved Mollie.) 3:20 a.m., July 4 At the gauge near Hunt, the Guadalupe has risen 6.29 feet in two hours. Water flow is 1,000 times faster. 3:28 a.m., July 4 A downstream flood warning will be issued for the Guadalupe River at Kerrville, and a flash flood warning for south-central Kerr and northwest Bandera extended until 7 a.m., the weather service says. It's issued at 3:33 a.m. "Again, this is a very dangerous flash flood event unfolding." 3:56 a.m., July 4 The latest river forecast takes Guadalupe at Hunt to "major flood stage," the weather service says. Eight minutes later, at 4:04 a.m., the service upgrades the Flash Flood Warning to a Flash Flood Emergency. Meanwhile the Guadalupe above Bear Creek also begins to transform, rising six inches in three hours. Around 4:00 a.m., July 4 Screams wake Kolton Taylor at Camp La Junta on the Guadalupe. He climbs from his bed into knee-high floodwaters that soon become waist-high. He later tells his mother, Janet Davis, he hears sounds "he won't ever forget." 4:20 a.m., July 4 Weather service radar estimates a swath of 5 to 10 inches of rain has fallen in 3 to 6 hours across south-central Kerr County, with 7.85 inches measured just upstream of the community of Hunt. "This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION and a Flash Flood EMERGENCY is in effect through 7 AM," the weather service warns. The Guadalupe River's flow at the USGS gauge near Hunt has grown from 9 cubic feet per second at 1:20 a.m. to 72,100 cubic feet per second, pushing the river 17 feet higher. 4:31 a.m., July 4 The heaviest rainfall begins to shift north in Kerr County and the weather service says it will issue a flood advisory for southwest Gillespie County. 5:04 a.m., July 4 The Guadalupe rises sharply and reaches its 2nd highest height on record near Hunt, higher than a terrible deadly flood in July 1987, the weather service says. "This flood wave will continue downstream through Kerrville and Comfort. This is a very dangerous and life-threatening flood event along the Guadalupe River!" Minutes later, the West Gulf River Forecast Center upgrades its forecast for the river to crest at 34 feet at Hunt, near its record height at that gauge, set in 1932 at 36.6 feet. 5:10 a.m., July 4 The measuring gauge at Hunt sends its last reading before being submerged, showing the water level rose from a height of 7.69 to 37.52 feet in less than 4 hours. 5:15 a.m., July 4 Downstream on the Guadalupe, the gauge at Kerrville has risen a foot. It will rise 3.5 feet in the next 14 minutes and more than 7 feet in 30 minutes. The USGS gauge on the Guadalupe at Bear Creek shows a rise of 9 feet in an hour. 5:16 a.m., July 4 The Kerrville Police Department posts on Facebook ***FLOOD ALERT***. It states the weather service reports record high water in Hunt and that anyone near the Guadalupe River "needs to move to higher ground now." 5:36 a.m., July 4 After talking with emergency management officials, the weather service says it will issue a Flash Flood Emergency for the Guadalupe River from Hunt through Kerrville and down to Center Point. "This will allow for wireless emergency alerts of cell phones for residents and campers along the river. This is a very dangerous and potentially deadly flood wave moving down the river." 5:43 a.m., July 4 High water rescues are ongoing along the Guadalupe River and South Fork of the Guadalupe River in Hunt, with people on roof tops, local emergency officials tell the weather service. 6:15 am., July 4 The USGS gauge on the Guadalupe at Kerrville shows the river has risen 24.2 feet in one hour. 6:32 a.m., July 4 The Kerr County Sheriff's Office posts on Facebook: 'DANGEROUS FLOODING NOW on the Guadalupe River in Hunt.' 6:37 a.m., July 4 Widespread rain, some heavy, continues falling across Hill Country, with a flash flood emergency ongoing for south-central Kerry County. "Continue to push for people to move to higher ground if they are along the Guadalupe River in Kerr County! Otherwise avoid travel through the county," the weather service says. 6:40 a.m., July 4 The sun rises in Kerrville, Texas, allowing flood victims still clinging to trees and debris to begin seeing the full devastating destruction around them. 6:42 a.m., July 4 A rain gauge on the USGS equipment at Hunt, reports 7.54 inches of rain, the weather service reports. 6:45 a.m. The USGS gauge on the Guadalupe at Hunt reaches its highest point – 34.29 feet, an increase of 32.47 feet in an hour and forty-five minutes. 7:17 a.m. July 4 The weather service issues another flash flood emergency along the Guadalupe, downstream from Center Point to below Comfort. 8:58 a.m., July 4 A flash flood warning is issued for western Gillespie County, where 2-4 inches rain has fallen and another 1 to 3 inches is possible. 9:10 a.m., July 4 An additional 2 to 4 inches of rain could fall in Kerr County, the weather service says, which could produce another small rise in river levels. 9:18 a.m., July 4 A meteorologist with CBS tells the weather service a viewer with family in law enforcement reported an entire RV park was swept downstream in Ingram with families inside the trailers. A video from behind Howdy's Bar and Chill confirmed the river was climbing to the back of the restaurant, says the weather service. 9:30 a.m., July 4 "This is a catastrophic flooding event in Kerr County," the Sheriff's Office posts on Facebook. "We can confirm fatalities ... and the entire county is an extremely active scene." 3:27 p.m., July 4 Texas Lt. Governor Dan Patrick confirms during its news briefing that "somewhere between 6 and 10 bodies have been found," emphasizing that number would change. At Camp Mystic, a waterfront girls camp south of the Hunt community, 23 girls are unaccounted for, Patrick says. "That does not mean they've been lost. They could be in a tree. They could be out of communication. We're praying for all of those missing to be found alive." Contributing: Christopher Cann, Rick Jervis and Marc Ramirez, USA TODAY Dinah Voyles Pulver, a national correspondent for USA TODAY, writes about climate change, violent weather and other news. Reach her at dpulver@ or @dinahvp on Bluesky or X or dinahvp.77 on Signal.
