Latest news with #Chantal
Newsweek
6 hours ago
- Climate
- Newsweek
Potential Tropical Storm Chantal Map Shows States at Risk
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Four states are at risk of seeing impacts from Tropical Storm Chantal should it form over the holiday weekend. AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek that if the storm appears this weekend, it will be well ahead of schedule for the season, as the average third storm of a hurricane season typically forms around August 3. Why It Matters If it forms, Tropical Storm Chantal will be the third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which began on June 1. The first storm, Tropical Storm Andrea, formed last week and caused no United States-related impacts. Tropical Storm Barry formed in the Bay of Campeche last weekend and impacted Eastern Mexico. What To Know The National Hurricane Center has been monitoring a disturbance near Florida throughout this week. The chances that the disturbance will form into a tropical storm have steadily increased. As of Wednesday afternoon, chances of formation within the next seven days were at 40 percent. On Tuesday, there was a 30 percent chance, and on Monday, a 20 percent chance. The chances that the storm will form within the next 48 hours remain near zero. The disturbance area has shifted slightly north, highlighting Florida and the southeast coast of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina as having potential for development. A map from the National Hurricane Center shows Tropical Storm Chantal could form near four states this weekend. A map from the National Hurricane Center shows Tropical Storm Chantal could form near four states this weekend. National Hurricane Center DaSilva told Newsweek that AccuWeather anticipates the southeast coast of the U.S. has a higher chance of development compared to the Gulf side. If it forms, it will likely do so between July 5 and 7. Regardless, DaSilva said there will be a rainy weather pattern for Florida and parts of the U.S. Southeast this weekend. Rain could also hit the Carolinas. "It does not look like this is going to blow up into a hurricane or anything like that," DaSilva said. "The environmental conditions are not favorable for that." What People Are Saying The National Hurricane Center said in a forecast: "An area of low pressure could develop near the southeast U.S. Atlantic or Gulf coasts by this weekend along a weakening frontal boundary. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slow development, but a tropical or subtropical depression could form in this region over the weekend or early next week while the system moves little. "Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly across the west-central Florida coast." AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek: "We call that homegrown development because it's basically developing close to home. This type of development is very common early in the season and also late in the season." DaSilva added, "There's nothing unusual about this. This is the area you'd be looking this time of the year." What Happens Next If the storm develops, it is expected to do so between July 5 and 7. Florida and the U.S. Southeast can expect a rainy weekend either way.
Yahoo
9 hours ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Chances increase slightly for tropical development over Fourth of July. See Florida impact
Chances for something tropical developing over or near Florida in the coming days increased while you slept. There's now a 40% chance for a tropical or subtropical depression forming over the next seven days if an area of low pressure develops in the southeastern Atlantic or Gulf by the holiday weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center. ➤ Track all active storms ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location Regardless of development, the system could bring up to 6 inches of rain to some portions of Florida through the Fourth of July weekend, according to the National Weather Service. The next named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be Chantal. In the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Flossie — now a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds — is moving west-northwest away from land. Weakening is expected by the end of the day, July2. Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m. July 2: An area of low pressure could develop near the southeast U.S. Atlantic or Gulf coasts by this weekend along a weakening frontal boundary, according to the National Hurricane Center. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slow development, but a tropical or subtropical depression could form in this region over the weekend or early next week while the system moves little. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly across the west-central Florida coast. Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 40 percent. "Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly across West-Central Florida," the Florida Department of Emergency Management said. "Those heading to the beaches for the holiday weekend from northern Florida and the Alabama and Mississippi panhandles to the Carolinas are urged to monitor the forecast, as there may be rough surf and rip currents and perhaps gusty winds should a tropical depression or storm develop," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, adding, "We feel the development window is from around July 4 to early next week." Factors helping prevent tropical development include wind shear and dry air, including Saharan dust moving across the Atlantic and into the Gulf. Hurricane Flossie is about 315 miles south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph, with higher gusts. Flossie is a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast this morning, with rapid weakening expected to begin by the end of the day. All coastal watches and warnings have been discontinued. This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center's tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome. The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high. The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception. "If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said. Named storms historically develop close to the U.S. in July, especially in the Gulf and off the Atlantic coast between Florida and the Carolinas. Later in the season, tropical storms and hurricanes develop out of tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa. Elsewhere in the tropics, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring five tropical waves, including two in the Caribbean: Tropical wave 1: A tropical wave has an axis along 23W in the eastern Atlantic, from the Cabo Verde Islands southward, moving west at around 11 mph. Tropical wave 2: Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W, south of 14N, moving westward around 17 mph. Tropical wave 3: A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W, south of 16N, moving westward at 11 to 17 mph. Tropical wave 4: An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 66W, south of 16N, moving westward at around 11 mph. Tropical wave 5: A tropical wave that had been in the western Caribbean is now crossing Central America into the eastern Pacific Ocean along 86W. It is moving west at 11 to 17 mph. Florida weather forecast for July 2, 2025 Pensacola, western Panhandle: The best chance for rain today will be along and east of I-65. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Tallahassee, central Panhandle: Wet pattern continues into Wednesday. We're also watching the potential development of a weak low next week, but main concerns with this feature still revolve around heavy rain. Some areas could see an estimated 4 to 6 inches of rain through the holiday weekend, with localized higher amounts possible. High of 89. Jacksonville, North/Northeast Florida: Regardless of tropical cyclone development, flooding rainfall risk increases Friday through the holiday weekend. "We are currently on a 26-day streak of the Jacksonville International Airport measuring a maximum temperature of 90 degrees" or warmer," the National Weather Service Jacksonville posted on X. "This ranks as the 20th longest stretch on record for JAX. This streak will likely continue this week." Daytona Beach to Stuart, East/Central Florida: Some morning sun then increasing clouds with scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms developing. Highs range from 88 in Daytona Beach to 87 in Stuart. West Palm Beach to Naples, South/Southwest Florida: Increasing showers and thunderstorms today may result in localized flooding, especially over east coast metro areas. Expect another warm day with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Fort Myers to Sarasota, West/Southwest Florida: "There remains high uncertainty with this (system with tropical potential) feature, but the main impact is expected to be heavy rainfall locally into the weekend." Highs today range from 89 in Fort Myers to 86 in Sarasota. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said. The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories. The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center. Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include: Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin. To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA sadi. Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated: : for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific. : for storms in the Northwest Pacific. : for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean. We will update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. This story was updated to add new information. This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Hurricane center tracks Florida rain impact, tropical development
Newsweek
13 hours ago
- Climate
- Newsweek
Florida Cyclone Update As Chances of Dangerous Storm Increase
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The likelihood of Tropical Storm Chantal forming near Florida in the next seven days has risen again, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Why It Matters The weather system would be the third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season if it forms. It would follow Tropical Storms Andrea and Barry, which formed last week. While Andrea formed over the open ocean, Barry made landfall on Mexico's east coast. What To Know Newsweek reported on Tuesday that the NHC gave the disturbance a 30-percent chance of forming in the next seven days, a slight upgrade from the 20-percent chance given on Monday. An NHC map highlights the area meteorologists are watching for potential tropical system development. An NHC map highlights the area meteorologists are watching for potential tropical system development. National Hurricane Center In its most recent Atlantic tropical weather outlook, issued early on Wednesday, the NHC noted there was now a "medium," 40-percent chance of development over the course of the next week. "An area of low pressure could develop near the southeast U.S. Atlantic or Gulf Coasts by this weekend along a weakening frontal boundary," the NHC said. "Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slow development, but a tropical or subtropical depression could form in this region over the weekend or early next week while the system moves little." Heavy rainfall remains possible over parts of the southeastern U.S., especially along the west-central coast of Florida, regardless of development, the NHC added. AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek previously that rain is expected to dampen Fourth of July celebrations across Florida. While it is not likely to rapidly intensify or reach hurricane strength, ocean temperatures are warm enough to allow for tropical development, DaSilva noted. What People Are Saying The National Hurricane Center said on X, formerly Twitter, on Tuesday: "July 1, 8 a.m. EDT: We continue to monitor the potential for tropical or subtropical development over the northeast Gulf and southeast U.S coast which has a low (30-percent) chance of development later this week. Stay up to date with the latest information at Meteorologist Ken South said on X, Tuesday: "Chances are increasing that a tropical system will develop in the NE Gulf near Florida in the next few days. There is now a 40-percent, medium chance of development. The next name on the Atlantic list this year is 'Chantal.'" What Happens Next The NHC will continue to deliver updates on the disturbance. The Atlantic hurricane season spans from June through November. Meanwhile, the Eastern Pacific hurricane season began on May 15 and runs through November 30.
Yahoo
a day ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
NHC still watching system near Florida. Sarasota, Bradenton impact for July 4th weekend
The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor a disturbance expected to stall off the southeast coast of the U.S. late this week, which could affect your Fourth of July weekend in Sarasota and Manatee County. As of 2 p.m. on Jul. 1, chances for development over the next seven days are 30%. Warm waters along the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts could provide the fuel necessary for development of a tropical depression or tropical storm around or just after July 4, AccuWeather said. ➤ Track all active storms ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location Regardless of tropical cyclone development, showers and thunderstorms could spoil your holiday weekend at the beach. The next named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be Chantal. "Development may be a bit more likely on the Gulf side, as opposed to the Atlantic side of Florida, but at this point the entire zone is being watched," DaSilva said, "At this time we feel the development window is from around July 4 to early next week." "A frontal boundary is expected to stall and weaken off the southeast U.S. coast late this week," the National Hurricane Center said at 2 p.m. "An area of low pressure could develop from the weakening front by the weekend over the Atlantic waters off the southeast U.S., over Florida, or over the eastern Gulf. "Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as the low drifts and moves little. "Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly across the west-central Florida coast." Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days: low, 30 percent. "A cold front will dive off the coast late this week, and it may act as a catalyst for development either in the eastern Gulf or off the Southeast coast," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert. "Wind shear, which can inhibit development, is expected to be fairly low and ocean water temperatures in the Gulf are above average which can aid in development in the outlooked area." "Should clustering of thunderstorms and lowering pressure develop enough spin around a center with winds of 35-38 mph, a tropical depression may be born. Waters are warm enough (80 or higher) to allow and sustain tropical development," according to AccuWeather. "This system poses no direct threat to Florida over the next 5-7 days; however, this system could bring locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds and an increased rip current risk along the Gulf or Atlantic Coast later this week and will continue to be monitored closely," the Florida Department of Emergency Management said. "Those heading to the beaches for the holiday weekend from northern Florida and the Alabama and Mississippi panhandles to the Carolinas are urged to monitor the forecast, as there may be rough surf and rip currents and perhaps gusty winds should a tropical depression or storm develop," DaSilva said. Factors helping prevent tropical development include wind shear and dry air, including Saharan dust moving across the Atlantic and into the Gulf. The Fourth of July holiday weekend forecast for Sarasota and Manatee counties from the National Weather Service in Miami as of July 1, 2025: Sarasota County July 4: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Light southwest wind increasing to 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday night, scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 30%. July 5: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. Light and variable wind becoming south southwest 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Saturday night, scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. Chance of precipitation is 40%. July 6: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Sunday night, showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Manatee County July 4: Day Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Southwest wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday night, scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2 am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. West southwest wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 30%. July 5: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 pm. High near 91. East wind 5 to 7 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Saturday night, showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 8 pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 8 pm. Low around 74. Chance of precipitation is 80%. July 6: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Sunday night, showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. Chance of precipitation is 60%. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said. The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories. The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center. Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include: Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin. To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA sadi. Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated: : for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific. : for storms in the Northwest Pacific. : for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean. Download your local site's app to stay connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: NOAA tracking system near Florida: Sarasota July 4th weekend forecast
Newsweek
a day ago
- Climate
- Newsweek
Potential Tropical Storm Chantal Update as Chances at Forming Rise
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Chances that Tropical Storm Chantal will form near Florida within the next week have risen by 10 percent. The disturbance could strengthen into the third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season this weekend. Even if it doesn't, AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek it will dampen Fourth of July celebrations across the state with rain. Why It Matters If it forms, Tropical Storm Chantal will be the third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which began on June 1. The first storm, Tropical Storm Andrea, formed last week and caused no U.S.-related impacts. Tropical Storm Barry formed in the Bay of Campeche over the weekend and impacted Eastern Mexico. What to Know As of the most recent update from the National Hurricane Center, the disturbance now has a 30 percent chance of forming in the next seven days. On Monday, the chances were at 20 percent. Chances of formation in the next 48 hours remain near zero. A map from the NHC shows where meteorologists are monitoring for the next possible tropical system. A map from the NHC shows where meteorologists are monitoring for the next possible tropical system. National Hurricane Center Thirty percent is still considered low according to the NHC. DaSilva said AccuWeather has been tracking the system for several days. It remains unclear which side of Florida it will develop on. Although it is unlikely to undergo rapid intensification or become a hurricane, ocean temperatures are warm enough to support tropical development, DaSilva said. Saharan dust could impede the storm's development, as tropical systems prefer moist air. Even if it doesn't strengthen into a named storm, it will bring rain across most of Florida over the holiday weekend. Rip currents also could pose a danger to any beachgoers. Systems that form close to the U.S. this time of year are known as homegrown development, DaSilva said. During this time of year, frontal boundaries often stall in the area and then can undergo further development into a tropical system. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration anticipates that 13 to 19 named storms will form during this year's Atlantic hurricane season, with six to 10 strengthening into hurricanes and three to five strengthening into major hurricanes. What People Are Saying NHC in a recent update about the disturbance: "A frontal boundary is expected to stall and weaken off the southeast U.S. coast late this week. An area of low pressure could develop from the weakening front by the weekend over the Atlantic waters off the southeast U.S., over Florida, or over the eastern Gulf. Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as the low drifts and moves little." DaSilva said in an AccuWeather report: "At this point the entire zone is being watched, from the northeastern Gulf to waters along the southern Atlantic coast of the U.S. At this time we feel the development window is from around July 4 to early next week." What Happens Next It remains unclear which side of the state the storm will develop on, but experts are monitoring the Gulf and Atlantic waters southeast of Florida for the storm. As development continues, more updates will be issued.
