Giro d'Italia Stage 16 preview: Three huge climbs provide backdrop to GC battleground
Today is a behemoth at 203km with 4,900m of altitude gain on the cards, riding from Piazzola sul Brenta to one of incredibly few summit finishes in this year's race, at San Valentino.
The route is flat to start but after 50km to warm up the legs it's all up and down for the rest of the day. The first climb is a category two at Carbonare (12.9km, averaging 4.6%, hitting 10% max), before a fast descent to Trento breaks up the climbing.
The next is the Monte Bondone, 10.1% maxing out at 13%, up to Candriai, with the pattern repeating of descent and then another climb, this one uncategorised to Cavedine, with the day's second intermediate sprint towards the top of that rise.
A sharp descent and a short valley road takes them onto the category-one Santa Barbara climb, a 12.7km ascent averaging nearly 9%, with maximum gradients of 14%. Another descent takes the riders onto the final climb, the 18.2km San Valentino.
The San Valentino climb is almost three climbs in one, with two short plateaux or descents interrupting the upper slopes.
The first is at Brentonico, home of the Red Bull kilometre, and from there it gets tougher, hitting 14% shortly after and averaging 9.2% for around 4km.
The second is at San Giacomo, from which the riders get the brief respite of a short descent until the 2km to go mark, before the final 8.9% rise to the finish. It's utterly relentless, all day. No time for the GC riders to switch off and plenty of places to make potentially race-winning moves.
Route map and profile
Start time
Stage 15 is set to start a bit earlier than normal, with plenty of climbing on the menu: at 11.20am local time (10.20am BST). It will conclude at around 5.15pm local time (4.15pm BST).
Prediction
Stage 15 turned the race on its head as pre-race favourite Primoz Roglic was distanced on a medium-mountains stage and lost even more time, while maglia rosa Isaac del Toro looks as sharp as ever at the head of the pack. This final week could change everything, of course, but amid speculation that Roglic wouldn't even start today, it seems unlikely that the Slovenian will put in a race-winning move on the latter climbs.
This in theory could be a day for either the breakaway or GC: veterans Romain Bardet and Nairo Quintana have climbed well and are both still searching for one final moment of glory, especially important for Bardet in his final grand tour, while Luke Plapp already has a stage win to his name and looked sharp in the breakaway on stage 11. Pello Bilbao and Wout Poels are other picks from a potential break, but if UAE sense any more weakness in Roglic, this could come down to a stage win for either Juan Ayuso and Isaac del Toro.
However, Ineos Grenadiers have lit up the race with their attacking tactics and while they haven't really borne fruit so far, this could be an opportunity for Egan Bernal to capitalise on his momentum.
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Tour de France 2025: Arensman pips Pogacar and Vingegaard to win stage 19 on La Plagne
Update: Date: 2025-07-25T19:04:13.000Z Title: Stage 19 report: Content: Thymen Arensman clinched his second stage win while Tadej Pogacar comfortably defended his GC lead Luke McLaughlin Fri 25 Jul 2025 18.31 CEST First published on Fri 25 Jul 2025 12.30 CEST 6.26pm CEST 18:26 And there you have it. Pogacar keeps his commanding GC lead, Onley looks to have sewn up fourth, which is a remarkable performance over three weeks, and Arensman now has two Tour stage wins to go with his two Vuelta wins from 2022. Jonathan Milan is odds-on to seal the points classification and Florian Lipowitz will be the best young rider. Pogacar tops the KOM classification with 117pts, Vingegaard is second with 104, Martinez third with 97. Arensman, after today's win, went fourth with 85pts. Thanks for reading and I'll see you soon. Updated at 6.31pm CEST 6.25pm CEST 18:25 Pogacar speaks: 'We did a really good job until the last climb. Then some teams, some riders, think they can sprint 19km of the climb. The pace was incredibly high at the start. I was thinking maybe Jonas wanted to win a stage, but then he was just holding on to my wheel. 'Arensman went on a good attack. I decided not to follow, set my rhythm. A defensive rhythm that I feel comfortable with. And yeah, in the end, it was like this. I am just happy it's over, and two more days to Paris. 'I had to pull the whole climb in the end. Of course I came quite tired to the finish line. But also, it was tough, the last three days for me. I'm happy that today is over. We go tomorrow. 'You never know. It's Tour de France. We keep concentrated, and yeah, let's go.' 6.16pm CEST 18:16 1) Milan 352pts 2) Pogacar 272pts 3) Girmay 213pts 4) Vingegaard 182pts 5) Turgis 169pts 6.13pm CEST 18:13 The sprinters have rolled in with five minutes to spare. Hence, Jonathan Milan is looking very good for the points classification. Updated at 6.14pm CEST 6.11pm CEST 18:11 'It's a game,' Gasparotto says of Red Bull-Bora's tactics. 'If you want to win big, you have to risk a little bit, otherwise you don't win big. 'We did a lot of analysis of Lipo's performance [yesterday]. We were quite confident, staying on the wheel of Onley, that Lipo could be superior in the final.' Updated at 6.12pm CEST 6.09pm CEST 18:09 Enrico Gasparotto of Red Bull-Bora Hansgrohe speaks to Hannah Walker on TNT Sports and is asked about their tactics: 'I would say it was clear yesterday that Primoz really wanted to win a stage. He knew our team goal was to finish on the podium, but for himself, he badly wanted to win a stage. At the end, this is what he did, he tried yesterday … at the end he missed the opportunity. Today was the last opportunity, he wanted to go flat out from the start. For us, for Lipo, it could work also for him. This is what he did. At the end, it's a tactic we agreed on.' Updated at 6.16pm CEST 5.57pm CEST 17:57 Roglic has dropped to eighth in GC, 25min 30sec down on the leader. A spectacular drop after his stage-winning attempts earlier. Updated at 6.02pm CEST 5.50pm CEST 17:50 Arensman, the stage winner, has a chat: 'I'm absolutely destroyed. I can't believe it. To win one stage, from a break … now against the GC group, the strongest riders in the world, it feels like I'm dreaming. I don't know what I just did. 'After the descent to La Plagne, we were talking in the radio … I said to the DS in the radio, today is the last mountain stage, I have no GC to ride for, but I will try to hang on for a few kilometres in the climb, and see how the legs feel. Tobias [Foss], I told him straight away swing off, then tomorrow is your day. 'I started the climb, I thought, I have no GC [aims]: maybe they will look at each other? You know what, I'll just try it. I just don't take no for an answer. 'Everyone knows Tadej and Jonas are the strongest in the world, almost aliens. Then just as a human, I still want to try to beat them. I just can't believe I beat them today. 'I tried to not look behind, just go as fast as I could, and it was enough. It's crazy. I was the first two weeks in the Giro, it was really good for me, the first two weeks, but then I got sick and someone crashed into me, and my knee was hurting a lot. I got to Rome … but to get to the Tour, to get two stage victories. It's just crazy. I don't know!' Updated at 6.18pm CEST 5.44pm CEST 17:44 1) Tadej Pogacar 69hr 41min 46sec 2) Jonas Vingegaard +4min 24sec 3) Florian Lipowitz +11min 09sec 4) Oscar Onley +12min 12sec 5) Felix Gall +17min 12sec 6) Tobias Johannessen +20min 14sec 7) Kevin Vauquelin (+22min 35sec) 8) Primoz Roglic (+25min 30sec) 9) Ben Healy (28 min 02sec) 10) Ben O'Connor (+34min 34sec) So Onley is 1min 03sec behind Lipowitz now. Updated at 5.59pm CEST 5.42pm CEST 17:42 The worst-case scenario for Red Bull-Bora Hansgrohe, after Roglic's kamikaze attack for the stage win, was for Onley to skip away from Lipowitz on the final climb. But ultimately the German was much stronger. Updated at 5.45pm CEST 5.40pm CEST 17:40 1) Thymen Arensman 2hr 46min 06sec 2) Jonas Vingegaard +2sec 3) Tadej Pogacar +2sec 4) Florian Lipowitz +6sec 5) Oscar Onley +47sec 6) Felix Gall +1min 34sec 7) Tobias Johannessen +1min 41sec 8) Ben Healy +2min 19sec 9) Valentin Paret-Peintre +3min 47sec 10) Simon Yates +3min 54sec 5.36pm CEST 17:36 Vingegaard came in second, two seconds behind the winner. 5.35pm CEST 17:35 Now here comes Ben Healy. What a race he's had for EF Education–EasyPost, by the way. Arensman collapses with exhaustion near the finish line. He appears to be weeping with joy. And why not? Updated at 5.35pm CEST 5.34pm CEST 17:34 Pogacar appeared to collide with a member of staff at the line, but it was a minor knock. Onley comes in 45sec behind Arensman. The other three were nothing more than three, four seconds behind the stage winner. 5.33pm CEST 17:33 A second stage win of the race for the Ineos Grenadiers rider. He clings on, but only just. What a brave victory. Updated at 5.45pm CEST 5.32pm CEST 17:32 200m to go: Arensman is going to cling on! 5.31pm CEST 17:31 500m to go: Arensman kicks! He's got six seconds! 5.31pm CEST 17:31 600m to go: Only 8sec for Arensman! 5.30pm CEST 17:30 800m to go: Lipowitz is setting the pace for the chasers. Onley battles on back down the road but he will not get back in touch. 5.30pm CEST 17:30 1km to go: Flamme rouge for Arensman! But he has only 15sec! I think they might just catch him … 5.29pm CEST 17:29 1.3km to go: Lipowitz leads Pogacar. Vingegaard is there, but has again been helpless to make any inroads into Pogacar's lead. 5.28pm CEST 17:28 1.5km to go: Onley is now distanced slightly and Lipowitz, sensing weakness, ups the pace. Onley's chance of the podium looks to be gone unless he can make up time tomorrow or on Sunday. Updated at 8.50pm CEST 5.28pm CEST 17:28 2km to go: Onley is suffering. He drops off the back of Lipowitz's wheel for a few seconds. Pogacar looks happy simply to mark Vingegaard and let Arensman have the stage. 5.27pm CEST 17:27 2.5km to go: It's now or never for Pogacar? And indeed now or never for Onley to try and make up that 22sec. 5.26pm CEST 17:26 3km to go: The crowds are huge and noisy now. Arensman makes his way through a large, screaming group of fans. The group of four, the top four in GC at the Tour de France, follow 19sec later. Is Pogacar happy to let Arensman have the stage win? Updated at 8.51pm CEST 5.24pm CEST 17:24 3.5km to go: Vauquelin is in a group of six, five minutes down on the leaders now. A tough day for the Frenchman who will be overhauled in the GC and certainly be knocked down to eighth, at least. Updated at 8.51pm CEST 5.23pm CEST 17:23 4km to go: Onley sits third wheel. Lipowitz remains glued (not literally) to the 22-year-old Scot's back wheel. 5.22pm CEST 17:22 4.5km to go: It's a 25sec lead for Arensman. Pogacar has clearly upped things a bit behind, but it looks like Arensman has responded. Gall and Johannessen are now alone, third group on the road, having dropped the former yellow jersey-wearer Ben Healy. Updated at 8.51pm CEST 5.20pm CEST 17:20 5km to go: Arensman stands up and dances on his pedals, maintaining a strong rhythm. He still has 24sec. La Plagne's ski chalets dot the sides of the road. Updated at 8.52pm CEST 5.19pm CEST 17:19 5.5km to go: Pogacar continues to control the pace in this group of four. The gap shrinks to 25sec, between them and Arensman. Neither Onley nor Lipowitz look to have the legs to attack at this stage. But of course they are riding their own head-to-head race, like Pogacar and Vingegaard, above them in GC. Updated at 8.52pm CEST 5.17pm CEST 17:17 6km to go: Arensman looks a tiny bit ragged but is still putting plenty of power into the pedals. He knows a second stage win of the race is in reach … But he also knows there is a big threat in yellow back down the road. 5.16pm CEST 17:16 6.5km to go: Pogacar, Vingegaard, Onley, Lipowitz, in that order, in this second group on the road. Arensman, grinding it out up front, has 31sec. 5.15pm CEST 17:15 6.5km to go: Pogacar attacks! Vingegaard follows, and Onley too, and momentarily a gap opens up to Lipowitz! But the German manages to get back on. 5.14pm CEST 17:14 7km to go: Arensman has 35sec. Is Pogacar waiting for the steepest slopes? Is Lipowitz going to try and attack? 5.12pm CEST 17:12 7.5km to go: Vauquelin is over 4min down now and has slipped to eighth in virtual GC. Pogacar rides on at the front of the group, apparently playing at being a domestique. Maybe his own domestique? Updated at 5.13pm CEST 5.11pm CEST 17:11 8km to go: Arensman has 36sec now. He and his team will be starting to dream … Updated at 5.12pm CEST 5.10pm CEST 17:10 8.5km to go: Pogacar sits first wheel in that group of seven now. He looks in total control, barely out of breath. He stands up on the pedals and ups the pace a bit, but it's not a concerted attack. He glances back at his rivals, gauging if they are in pain, calculating if and when to launch the attack that might win him the stage. Updated at 8.53pm CEST 5.08pm CEST 17:08 9km to go: Arensman powers on alone. The pain is etched on his face. But he knows, from recent experience, what it feels like to win a Tour de France stage. And he wants some more of it. Pain is merely temporary, after all. Updated at 5.09pm CEST 5.07pm CEST 17:07 9.5km to go: It's wet on the road. There are lots of fans, although not yet the kind of crowds we've seen on other mountains. Slovenian flags are out in force. 5.06pm CEST 17:06 10km to go: A group of seven now, second on the road, half a minute behind Arensman: Pogacar, Vingegaard, Healy, Lipowitz, Gall, Onley, Johannessen. Roglic has indeed collapsed and is 4min 19sec behind the leaders. Ouch. Updated at 5.06pm CEST 5.04pm CEST 17:04 10.5km to go: Arensman, out front on his own, has 28sec. He won last Saturday so is in flying form: Updated at 5.05pm CEST 5.03pm CEST 17:03 11km to go: Gall, Onley, Lipowitz and co have rejoined 'Pogi' and Vingegaard.
