Revisiting initial 2025 NFL Draft top 50: Which of Dane Brugler's rankings hit the mark?

New York Times

27-05-2025

As part of my post-draft wrap up, I like to revisit my initial top-50 draft board from August to examine the trajectory of prospects.
For better or worse, I always try to be transparent with my evaluation process and reasoning for prospect rankings. A preseason board is a starting point, and this look-back exercise helps illustrate the journey each prospect took.
The list below follows that initial top-50 rankings plus notes where each prospect landed in my final, top-300 board and their ultimate draft outcome (for those that turned pro).
Johnson was an integral part of Michigan's national title run as a sophomore, which led to his sky-high ranking entering the 2024 season. However, his lack of true top-end speed was more of an issue on his junior tape, hence his fall in the rankings. And injury concerns are why he ultimately slid to the mid-second round on draft weekend.
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Despite average speed, though, Johnson is still a very talented cover man who will look like a steal for the Cardinals if he stays healthy.
From my initial top 50 last August to my final board, Carter stood No. 2 in every ranking I published. I received some pushback for having him so high last summer, mostly because at the time he was making a position switch from linebacker to edge rusher. But it was a bet on his high-end athleticism and disruption potential.
Hunter started the season in the conversation to be the draft's top prospect, and he clearly separated himself as the process played out. It doesn't take a trained eye to see how different Hunter is on the field.
Graham started and finished as my fourth-ranked prospect. Dating to the 2024 draft class (in which Michigan had double-digit draft picks), it was impossible to overlook No. 55 and the disruption the then-sophomore created in the trenches. That continued during his junior year, as he cemented himself as one of the top defensive players in the class.
Pearce was a complicated prospect, for multiple reasons. The flashes he put on his 2023 tape earned him an optimistically high ranking over the summer. His 2024 tape showed those same flashes but also minimal growth, plus raised questions about his ability to be a true three-down player. Add in character concerns and his final grades from NFL teams were all over the place.
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Aside from Hunter, a dual-threat athlete, McMillan was my top-ranked receiver from start to finish — similar to how most NFL teams saw him. Even though his 2024 season wasn't as consistent as the year prior, McMillan's ball-winning instincts made him one of the draft's top offensive players.
Burden put together a 1,200-plus-yard receiving season in 2023 and was trending toward being a first-rounder in '25. His impact and consistency declined during last season, though, creating questions that dropped him in my rankings (and in the eyes of NFL teams). Burden is clearly talented, and he landed with an offensive situation that could lead to him outplaying his draft spot.
Beck became Georgia's starting quarterback in 2023 and got better and better throughout that season, which established him — for several teams — as the early QB1 prospect in a light quarterback class. However, his 2024 season went sideways quickly, as he struggled with turnovers and his lack of mobility became an anchor for his consistency.
Beck slid from being a potential first-rounder to possibly falling out of the top 100. Rather than take his chances, he (wisely) bypassed the NFL for another year and transferred to Miami, collecting both a hefty payday and an opportunity to resuscitate his draft stock during the 2025 season.
From his first college game as a freshman, Starks looked like a future first-round pick. His impact on the 2024 tape (especially vs. Alabama) marked a slight decline from how he'd performed as a sophomore in 2023, which is why he slipped a tad on draft weekend. But Starks has the football smarts and character that will make him an NFL starter for a long time.
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The top offensive lineman in the class from start to finish, Campbell was far from perfect as a junior in 2024. However, he consistently played at a high level and cemented himself as a top-10 prospect in the class.
Morrison's fall between last summer and draft weekend was based primarily on durability questions, specifically surrounding his right shoulder surgery and a pair of hip procedures dating to high school. If healthy, Morrison has NFL starting talent.
After his breakout 2023 season, Revel passed up major NIL paydays from LSU, Texas and others to stay at East Carolina in 2024. NFL scouts were buzzing about him as a first-round pick, but an ACL tear in September complicated his draft projection and put a discount sticker on his scouting report.
After Jones showed promise over his first two seasons as LSU's starting right tackle, this high preseason ranking was a bet on him taking another developmental jump as a junior in 2024. That didn't happen. Jones has NFL-level size, strength and movements, but his undisciplined balance and recovery abilities are still major concerns.
From the day he arrived in Athens, Williams flashed immense potential, even if the consistency wasn't always there. It was more of the same in 2024 as he battled an ankle injury. Still, it wasn't surprising to see a team in the top 12 bet on his talent.
NFL teams were split on Banks — some viewed him as a top-15 prospect, while others had him in the back half of Round 1 or in Round 2. But with offensive line talent being at a premium in this class, it became clear Banks would be selected on the high end of the spectrum.
There was a long list of Ohio State prospects to study last summer, but Williams — primarily because of his impact against the run — stood out most on the 2023 tape. Although he slipped a little because of his average pass-rush productivity, he still wound up in Round 1.
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Based on polling of a few NFL scouts last summer, Walker had sky-high grades going into the 2024 season, including several top-10 projections. At almost 6 feet 8 and 330 pounds, Walker had generated a ton of optimism about his game at this time last year. However, that evaporated over time — he took a step back in impact and production.
Sanders started the season ranked No. 18 and incrementally dropped throughout the process, primarily because of his pocket management issues and struggles to lift Colorado's offense against the better defenses on its schedule. No one saw a fall into the fifth round, but it wasn't surprising to see Sanders drop out of the first.
After leading the Big Ten with 15 sacks in 2023, Scourton returned home to College Station with a chance at becoming a first-round pick. His impact was erratic and didn't live up to that type of hype, but his activity level will be an asset for Carolina.
Perkins (6-0, 215) is a special athlete with concerns about positional fit, which makes him a tough NFL projection. He was planning to go pro, but circumstances changed after he tore his ACL in September. He's an intriguing player to watch for the 2026 draft class.
On paper, Loveland should have fallen in the rankings — he plays a non-premium position, and injuries sidelined him for a chunk of the 2024 season and all of the pre-draft process. That he rose instead (and was drafted top 10) speaks to his talent as a pass-catching weapon.
Though I liked Savaiinaea quite a bit entering the season, I didn't think his 2024 performance — albeit out of position at tackle — was consistent enough to feel great about him in the top 40. But, again, offensive line is a premium spot and often gets overdrafted. In this case, it took an expensive trade up by the Dolphins to get Savaiinaea at No. 37.
Seeing Ewers free fall on draft weekend was surprising yet not surprising at the same time. Opinions on him were all over the map, but the general thought among NFL scouts was he would be drafted somewhere in the third- to fourth-round range. Instead, Ewers was the 13th (and final) quarterback selected in 2025.
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Woof. This initial high ranking for Weigman encapsulates the underwhelming nature of last year's quarterback class. We only had a three-game sample for Weigman at that point off the 2023 tape, but he had shown the type of promise that created buzz among scouts. However, he played poorly out of the gate in 2024, lost the starting job and eventually transferred to Houston after the season. This early ranking aged like milk.
I took some heat for ranking Jeanty this high, especially ahead of Ollie Gordon II, Quinshon Judkins and others. But the Boise State back was clearly the draft's top back based on the 2023 tape, and he more than lived up to that opinion in 2024.
A favorite among scouts last summer, Ersery had a solid final season for the Gophers, although it didn't quite measure up to the high bar most had set for him. Nonetheless, he was still viewed as a solid second-round player with intriguing tools.
Tuimoloau never quite turned into the 'take over the game' type of pass-rush threat some expected when he was being recruited. But he was consistently one of the Buckeyes' best defensive players, regardless of the tape you watched. Tuimoloau was drafted in the expected neighborhood.
With his athletic tools, Barton had West Coast scouts really excited last summer, but missed tackles and lapses in coverage changed his outlook. He returned to Utah for his senior year this fall and will have a chance to prove himself as a top-100 prospect.
Florida State had arguably the best edge-rushing duo in college football during the 2023 season, with Payton and Jared Verse. The latter left for the NFL and had a standout rookie season in '24; Payton returned to Tallahassee and had a very quiet showing. Instead of leaving for the NFL after a down year, he stayed in college for a fifth season.
Grant was a polarizing prospect among scouts. His impact in college didn't scream top-15 pick, but the NFL is a big man's game and his package of tools at his size (6-4, 330) is what NFL teams desire.
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Delane had multiple second-round grades from scouts last summer, based on his size-speed tools. He is a good example of a player who would have declared in past years and likely been a Day 2 pick. But in the current NIL-world, Delane decided to stay in school — and took a payday as an LSU transfer.
Despite missing most of the 2024 season with a shoulder injury, Hairston was drafted very close to where he started in the rankings. Two key traits for the cornerback position are speed and confidence — Hairston grades well in both.
Egbuka was one of those prospects who had a universal approval rating from just about everyone, start to finish, over the past year. What he lacked in elite physical traits, he more than made up for by excelling at the details of playing the position at a high level.
Burke's tumble in my rankings from August to April was predictable — he was a solid prospect, but his size-speed traits were (and are) average at best. Although my preseason ranking was way off, I corrected it during the season, especially after the Oregon game. He was drafted within five spots of his final ranking.
Fresh off a 1,732-yard rushing season in 2023, Gordon was an easy prospect to like over the summer. But the concerning flaws in his game were front and center over the first month of the '24 season and he didn't regain the optimistic vibes in the eyes of NFL teams.
Without Drake Maye in Chapel Hill last season, I was concerned Hampton's impact would fall off a cliff. Instead, his production was even better in 2024, which helped cement him as a top-30 prospect in the class.
Based on his performance against Travis Hunter and Colorado on the 2023 tape, Ayomanor was one of the more intriguing up-and-coming receiving prospects headed into last season. He continued to show some of that promise in 2024, but several of his flaws were evident as well — suspect ball skills and separating ability, to name a couple.
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A tackling machine, Stutsman is the type of linebacker who would have been a shoo-in first-rounder in the '90s. However, his lapses in coverage ultimately made him a borderline top-100 pick in the eyes of NFL teams.
With his explosive yet stiff play style, Jackson is a 'not for everyone' type of pass rusher — nevertheless, it was still surprising to see him fall out of the second round. Players with his type of length and motor often end up playing a decade in the league.
A part-time player with zero career starts over his first two years in Athens, Walker was a pure projection last summer. Some would argue he remains a major projection as he makes the jump to the NFL, but his front-seven versatility, specifically as a pass rusher, was more evident on the 2024 tape.
Last summer, I was the 'high man' with my evaluation of Barron, who didn't appear that early in most other rankings. I still liked a lot of what Barron did on the 2024 tape, but eventually I was passed by many who liked him even more — including the Broncos. The bottom line: Barron is a good player.
I really struggled with Carter's evaluation. Prior to the season, I was willing to bet on his speed and read-and-react athleticism, which earned him a spot in the early top 50. But his lack of size and ability to play ahead of blocks were constant issues and ultimately dropped him into Day 3.
After a productive 2023 season at Alabama, Bond (and his speed) was billed as the Longhorns' No. 1 pass catcher for 2024. However, the lack of detail and consistency in his game were glaring issues, and his off-field troubles led to him being undrafted.
A former five-star recruit, Nolen flashed just enough talent to earn a spot in the early top 50, although there were still a ton of questions. He provided enough answers during his one season at Ole Miss to command a spot in the first round.
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Aside from a few key plays on Ohio State's march through the college football playoffs, Sawyer didn't do enough during his senior season to convince teams he belonged in the top-50 conversation. That said, even though I think his play style has a pretty low ceiling in the NFL, it was surprising to see Sawyer fall into the fourth round.
Jackson basically took a redshirt year in 2023, but NFL scouts were buzzing about him based on how the 6-5, 330-pounder moved during practice. The Miami transfer was solid during the 2024 season (led Florida State in pressures), but scouts are hoping for an uptick in consistency his final college season.
Based on his speed and big-play flashes at Houston, Brown intrigued me last summer as a player who could have a breakout with Cam Ward and Miami in 2024. That didn't happen. Brown was underwhelming and didn't do enough to earn draftable grades, either from me or NFL teams.
While at Purdue, Burks jumped off the 2023 tape with his suddenness before and after the catch. But after transferring to Oklahoma, he struggled to stay on the field because of injuries, and his overall impact cratered in a lackluster offense. Burks wisely returned to Norman, where a new quarterback and play caller will give him a chance to regain top-50 consideration.
Stewart has serious juice to win up and down the field, but he remained too one-dimensional as a receiver on the 2024 tape. He might have been a second-round pick had he declared, but he was smart to return to school. He can compete for first-round consideration next April, if he continues to develop.
Allar is very much an unfinished product, but generally speaking, the 2024 season was a promising step in his development. Had he declared, he likely would have been the second quarterback drafted — maybe as early as a top-three pick. But another year of development should serve Allar well long term.
(Top photo of Abdul Carter: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)